Posted on 06/22/2007 5:48:28 AM PDT by indcons
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's currently happening with the Senate immigration bill (You can see my two previous reports from this source here and here).
To begin with, the key thing to keep in mind about the upcoming vote on the Senate immigration bill is that the pro-amnesty forces have two key cloture votes that they have to win.
The first is the vote on the so-called "clay pigeon" strategy. What this does is take the original bill and all of its amendments and reintroduce it on the Senate floor as a new bill. There are two reasons for doing this. The first is to prevent killer amendments that could upset the "grand compromise" from being voted on. The second reason is procedural, because it keeps conservative Senators who are opposed to the bill from being able to slow up the process.
However, in order for the bill and the previous amendments to be offered on the floor of the Senate as a new bill, it will take the cooperation of both Democratic and Republican leadership, along with 60 votes for cloture.
The conventional wisdom has been that this first cloture vote is a done deal because the Senate leadership has been wheeling and dealing behind the scenes. The way it works is that they go to a Senator and offer to allow a vote on their Amendment IF -- and only if -- that Senator agrees to vote for cloture on the "clay pigeon" strategy.
My source tells me that this has left a sour taste in the mouth of a number of Republican Senators who are upset that Mitch McConnell is cooperating with Harry Reid to curtail the rights of Republican Senators. Moreover, there's a growing fear that a dangerous precedent is being set here that could be used against Republican Senators again and again as long as they're in the minority. After all, if the "clay pigeon" strategy is used against conservatives on the immigration issue, who's to say it won't also be used against them on any number of issues in the future? According to my source, this is causing a lot of nervousness amongst Republican Senators and it has Mitch McConnell acting very defensive behind closed doors about working with Harry Reid to roll members of his own caucus. Because of this issue, my source tells me that the vote for the "clay pigeon" strategy is no longer a slam dunk and it is possible that the "grand bargainers" may not be able to get 60 votes to put the bill on the floor as a new bill. If that turns out to be the case, the bill is dead.
Then, if the bill does make it to the floor, there will be 22 amendments offered. These amendments have been carefully selected by the combined Democratic/Republican leadership to try to make sure that no deal breakers can make it through. Still, my source tells me that every amendment has the potential to be problematic for the grand bargainers, because the vote count is very close. If certain amendments pass, it could cost votes. On the other hand, some Senators may very well decide not to vote for the bill if their amendments don't pass. But, once the votes on the amendments are through, there will be another key vote for cloture and whether it will get the 60 votes is anyone's guess at this point.
Then, of course, if they do get the 60 votes for cloture, there will be a final vote for the bill, but since only 50 votes are needed, it will be almost guaranteed to pass.
Summary: My source tells me that he thought the amnesty proponents definitely had the upper hand last week, but now, he thinks the momentum may be swinging back the other way. He also said that he thinks the best chance to stop the bill will be on the initial cloture vote. He said that he's hoping that a coalition of conservatives who think this is a bad bill, liberals who think this bill is too tough, and Republican Senators worried about losing minority rights because of the "clay pigeon" strategy will get together and block the bill. If that doesn't happen, the pro-amnesty side won't have won, but the odds will shift a bit more in their favor.
PS #1: I pointed out that John Edwards and Claire McCaskill have made some extremely negative comments about the bill and asked my source if it's possible that Democratic opposition could increase enough to kill the bill. He said it was possible, but he thought Harry Reid was capable of strong arming the Democrats enough to keep them from losing many votes. Of course, he also added that he's not sure that Harry Reid really wants to see this bill pass, so he's not sure how hard he would fight for it. Either way, he said not to count on the Democrats to finish off the bill.
PS #2: I asked him about Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss announcing that they will vote against cloture. My source's take was that it wasn't a bill killer, but that it was significant since both of them were prominent early supporters of the bill. He added that he thought their switch was indicative of the pressure Republicans are feeling at the grass roots level and he said that he thought Isakson and Chambliss deserved credit for paying attention to it while a lot of pro-amnesty supporters have tuned it out or even shut off their answering machines because they're tired of hearing their constituents complain about this issue.
PS #3: Last but not least, I talked to my source about the shots Trent Lott and Lindsey Graham have taken at people opposed to the bill. My source replied that when this whole thing started, these guys were cocky and thought they'd get this bill through with 70 votes, no problem. But now, because of the blogs and talk radio, they've lost the public debate on the issue and they know it. So, at this point, they're way out on a limb supporting a wildly unpopular bill that may or may not pass, and they're lashing out in frustration. He added that a lot of Republican Senators have been offended and embarrassed by their comments and are worried that the voters will lump them in with Graham and Lott.
Short list ping
You’re exactly correct.
This is what I don’t understand about Lott’s comments on talk radio: talk radio is a great tool for disseminating information to a rather committed audience, mostly conservative, mostly well educated, with an abundance of small business owners, professionals, and (gasp!) white males in the mix.
But where does talk radio get their facts on the immigration bills? Well, it used to depend on the mainstream media, which has been white-washing the immigration bills completely. So if Lott were possessed of a clue, he’d be wondering “why is talk radio able to get people so engaged and angry on this issue now?”
Having listened to talk radio since just before Rush re-made AM radio, talk radio used to be a way of the public adding their critical examination of mainstream press stories. This was a big leap forward from the former “We’re the press.... and you’re peons... uh, readers!” model. But talk radio didn’t have too many instances where they had their own sources of information.
Increasingly, talk radio is getting their information from the ‘net directly, and from well respected bloggers. Who are some of the best bloggers? Independent journalists (eg, Malkin) and lawyers (Instapundit, Power Line, etc). These people are turning out to be better, faster, and more lucid in their analysis of legislation than the press ever was. Of course, the breadth of expertise and analysis here at FR isn’t to be sneezed at either. This has been like giving talk radio their own think tank; no longer is talk radio just ranting at windmills, talk radio now has substance, real intellectual heft, behind the ranting. In short, it is not what it used to be, a reaction to the mainstream media. Talk radio is now truly it’s own news bureau.
Couple the three together — the better educated/connected/financed audience of talk radio, with the wide reach of talk radio, with the facts and analysis from the blogosphere, and we have a synergy that clowns like Lott haven’t realized yet, to his detriment.
As for putting the genie back into the bottle: I don’t think it can be done now. And as broadband continues to penetrate the US ‘net market, and as satellite radio continued to pick up more customers, increasingly the FCC has less authority over the medium and goofy ideas like “The Fairness Doctrine” will mean less and less.
No, and its not over till all the votes are in. Im still hoping..
Only the RINOs. Everyone knows it's the conservative Senators who are trying to block this thing, and they will be rewarded.
BUMP
John / Billybob
LOL. I'm waiting for the FBI to show up any time now about my email.
I was thinking about sending an email to the staff of Trent Lott and tell them to do the smart thing and get out now while there are jobs still available...Trent and his staff are toast.
Thanks for the ping. Good stuff.
“I believe part of Graham’s problem is that he suffers from a fairly bad case of White Guilt.”
Or maybe he has an illegal living in his pad? ;)
“I believe part of Graham’s problem is that he suffers from a fairly bad case of White Guilt.”
Or maybe he has an illegal living in his pad? ;)
Interesting. Thanks for posting.
I see lots of them starting to pull in their horns because they can see the hand writing on the electoral wall, so to speak.
Believe me the words people are writing on that wall spell nothing but nasty trouble for those willing to sacrifice the political careers.
To think Limply Graham may actually have to get a paying job without all the nice government perks.
These Turkeys pass this bill the only ones who will have Republican money will be the Senator's who opposed this dictatorial move.
He'll walk away with a retirement 'package' that will be higher than the average income of most Americans in a lifetime.
Limply Grahamnesty
However, Limply’s ego is so big that I doubt his retirement will cover his maintenance costs of high living.
Just say NO to Illegal Alien Amnesty!! Keep calling!! It’s NOT OVER!!
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