Posted on 06/22/2007 5:48:28 AM PDT by indcons
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's currently happening with the Senate immigration bill (You can see my two previous reports from this source here and here).
To begin with, the key thing to keep in mind about the upcoming vote on the Senate immigration bill is that the pro-amnesty forces have two key cloture votes that they have to win.
The first is the vote on the so-called "clay pigeon" strategy. What this does is take the original bill and all of its amendments and reintroduce it on the Senate floor as a new bill. There are two reasons for doing this. The first is to prevent killer amendments that could upset the "grand compromise" from being voted on. The second reason is procedural, because it keeps conservative Senators who are opposed to the bill from being able to slow up the process.
However, in order for the bill and the previous amendments to be offered on the floor of the Senate as a new bill, it will take the cooperation of both Democratic and Republican leadership, along with 60 votes for cloture.
The conventional wisdom has been that this first cloture vote is a done deal because the Senate leadership has been wheeling and dealing behind the scenes. The way it works is that they go to a Senator and offer to allow a vote on their Amendment IF -- and only if -- that Senator agrees to vote for cloture on the "clay pigeon" strategy.
My source tells me that this has left a sour taste in the mouth of a number of Republican Senators who are upset that Mitch McConnell is cooperating with Harry Reid to curtail the rights of Republican Senators. Moreover, there's a growing fear that a dangerous precedent is being set here that could be used against Republican Senators again and again as long as they're in the minority. After all, if the "clay pigeon" strategy is used against conservatives on the immigration issue, who's to say it won't also be used against them on any number of issues in the future? According to my source, this is causing a lot of nervousness amongst Republican Senators and it has Mitch McConnell acting very defensive behind closed doors about working with Harry Reid to roll members of his own caucus. Because of this issue, my source tells me that the vote for the "clay pigeon" strategy is no longer a slam dunk and it is possible that the "grand bargainers" may not be able to get 60 votes to put the bill on the floor as a new bill. If that turns out to be the case, the bill is dead.
Then, if the bill does make it to the floor, there will be 22 amendments offered. These amendments have been carefully selected by the combined Democratic/Republican leadership to try to make sure that no deal breakers can make it through. Still, my source tells me that every amendment has the potential to be problematic for the grand bargainers, because the vote count is very close. If certain amendments pass, it could cost votes. On the other hand, some Senators may very well decide not to vote for the bill if their amendments don't pass. But, once the votes on the amendments are through, there will be another key vote for cloture and whether it will get the 60 votes is anyone's guess at this point.
Then, of course, if they do get the 60 votes for cloture, there will be a final vote for the bill, but since only 50 votes are needed, it will be almost guaranteed to pass.
Summary: My source tells me that he thought the amnesty proponents definitely had the upper hand last week, but now, he thinks the momentum may be swinging back the other way. He also said that he thinks the best chance to stop the bill will be on the initial cloture vote. He said that he's hoping that a coalition of conservatives who think this is a bad bill, liberals who think this bill is too tough, and Republican Senators worried about losing minority rights because of the "clay pigeon" strategy will get together and block the bill. If that doesn't happen, the pro-amnesty side won't have won, but the odds will shift a bit more in their favor.
PS #1: I pointed out that John Edwards and Claire McCaskill have made some extremely negative comments about the bill and asked my source if it's possible that Democratic opposition could increase enough to kill the bill. He said it was possible, but he thought Harry Reid was capable of strong arming the Democrats enough to keep them from losing many votes. Of course, he also added that he's not sure that Harry Reid really wants to see this bill pass, so he's not sure how hard he would fight for it. Either way, he said not to count on the Democrats to finish off the bill.
PS #2: I asked him about Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss announcing that they will vote against cloture. My source's take was that it wasn't a bill killer, but that it was significant since both of them were prominent early supporters of the bill. He added that he thought their switch was indicative of the pressure Republicans are feeling at the grass roots level and he said that he thought Isakson and Chambliss deserved credit for paying attention to it while a lot of pro-amnesty supporters have tuned it out or even shut off their answering machines because they're tired of hearing their constituents complain about this issue.
PS #3: Last but not least, I talked to my source about the shots Trent Lott and Lindsey Graham have taken at people opposed to the bill. My source replied that when this whole thing started, these guys were cocky and thought they'd get this bill through with 70 votes, no problem. But now, because of the blogs and talk radio, they've lost the public debate on the issue and they know it. So, at this point, they're way out on a limb supporting a wildly unpopular bill that may or may not pass, and they're lashing out in frustration. He added that a lot of Republican Senators have been offended and embarrassed by their comments and are worried that the voters will lump them in with Graham and Lott.
With McCain’s obvious decline in recent weeks, however, Graham may see the writing on the wall. His rants are out of desperation, as that giant sucking sound he hears is his Vice Presidency and very possibly his Senatorial career swishing around the opened drain.
He's also devoted a lot of effort to sucking-up to Hillary Clinton. It's possible she's dangled the possibility of the Attorney General post in her administration to entice him.
Senate Republicans under Lott and then Frist were very weak.
McConnell is not the rollee.
If this gets adopted, the majority of the illegals (all those not from Europe) will be entitled to racial preferences -- they will be legally favored over American citizens who are guilty of being white or non-Filipino Asian.
Graham seemed like a good guy during the impeachment process, when he was still in the House, but in recent years he has been weak...maybe the ‘Rats have some dirt on him they are using to blackmail him.
McConnell orchestrated the bill’s defeat in the first advent.
How pathetic would it be if John freaking Edwards were the one to save us from this bill?
bump article and post 2
Senators need to know that a vote for the ‘clay pigeon’ will make them a ‘dead duck’.
What a friggin' nightmare... any bill that the Dhimmi's sorely want... all they have to do is go to the 'Grand Bargainers' and cut a deal. Conservatives are virtually disenfranchised.
“What’s next? If you want to debate something they just send in the SS and shoot you?”
This bill hasn’t gone they way it was supposed to.
The secret back room drafting of this bill by a select few, and the tactics used to circumvent the normal legislative procedure were to ensure its passage before the public knew about it.
Thanks to the internet and some patriots at the Heritage Foundation, drafts of the bill were on computers across the land in a matter of hours!
We could see for ourselves what treachery they were up to, so their misinformation campaigns didn’t work anymore.
These elitist bastards have come face to face with the information age, and their (secret) business as usual tactics won’t work anymore.
They are scared.
Already we are seeing fear in their responses as they lash out against talk radio and the “misinformation” that they accuse it of spreading.
They have realized the genie is out of the bottle and they don’t know what to do about it.
Actually, he showed a glimmer of what was to come during the impeachment process. Most of the Freepers who noticed it are no longer around, but I remember it vividly.
It was during one of those interminable network TV appearances and discussions about what it took for an offense to "rise to the level" of so-called "high crimes and misdemeanors". Graham concocted and started expounding on some sort of arcane "bi-level" or "split-level" gibberish to explain the meaning of the historical "term of art" and therefore the necessary manner in which the Senators would have to judge.
What he was saying was so obviously nonsense even his fellow panelists and the interviewer all got one of those "WTF" expressions on their faces. While spouting his nonsense, he had that smug, self-satisfied smile we all have come to know so well, and it was clear he was extremely impressed with his own cleverness and legal brilliance.
He quickly dropped this line of argument and his comments vanished down the memory hole, but as I said, the episode provided a brief glimpse into the man inside.
Well, let’s mute Ted the Swimmer’s effectiveness. I hope the Mass voters are really proud of this piece of garbage now that he has sold his country along with its people down the toilet, just because he thinks he can. I abhor the deceit and secrecy being used to pass this disgrace of a bill. If you have to use these means, something is definately wrong. Maybe we should really investigate what happened to Mary Jo and send this man to prison where hde can languish his sunset years away.
Graham has a negative score in my book. next November he is fired.
Correction -
We are LOUD BIGOT NATIVISTS who are trying to SCARE PEOPLE and we need to SHUT UP.
True, but we can’t post that one.
While the DC Elites keep spewing "path to citizenship", this is the dirty little "secret" that is never mentioned....
someone needs to post the bill organizers’ “laughing” photo,
that picture says it all
that photo, is my reminder
bttt
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