Posted on 06/19/2007 6:52:38 AM PDT by Neville72
There’s change at the top in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson earning support from 28% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts support from 27%. While Thompson’s one-point edge is statistically insignificant, it is the first time all year that anybody but Giuliani has been on top in Rasmussen Reports polling. A week ago, Thompson and Giuliani were tied at 24%.
It remains an open question as to how Thompson will hold up once he actually enters the campaign and has to compete directly with other candidates. To date, he retains the allure of the new kid in town while GOP voters already know the things they don’t like about the others. Still, Thompson’s rise to the top provides a telling measure of how the other GOP hopefuls have failed to capture the imagination of the party they hope to lead.
Once gain this week, Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are tied for a distant third. This week, both men attract 10% support. Last week, they were both at the 11% level of support. For McCain, this is a continuation of a downward trend. For Romney, it reflects a fairly steady position. Romney is doing well in selected state polls but has been unable to gain much traction and expand his support nationwide.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback are each the top choice for 2% of the likely voters.
The combined total for five other candidates in the race is just under 3%. Those candidates are Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Eighteen percent (18%) say they’re not sure how they will vote.
This is the first Rasmussen Reports poll to exclude former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a candidate. Gingrich earned 7% support in last week’s polling but has recently made statements indicating he is not likely to enter the 2008 race as candidate.
Giuliani remains the most well-liked candidate in either party. He is viewed favorably by 82% of Republicans nationwide and unfavorably by 15%. Thompson, not as well known, is the only other candidate with so few Republicans holding an unfavorable opinion of him. The actor turned Senator turned actor again is viewed favorably by 59% of Republicans and unfavorably by 14%.
Among Republicans, Romney and McCain both have lower favorables and higher unfavorables than the frontrunners. For Romney, those GOP numbers are 56% favorable and 28% unfavorable. McCain, among the nation’s best known political figures, is viewed favorably by 55% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%.
While Giuliani is well liked, only 21% of Republicans view him as politically conservative. Twice as many, 42%, believe that Thompson is politically conservative.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays. The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 618 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 11-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.
In some states, independent voters are allowed to participate in Republican primaries. In others, only Republicans can participate. Among Republicans only in the current poll, it’s Thompson 29% Giuliani 24% Romney 11% and McCain 10%.
McCain’s recent decline in the polls has been tied closely to his support for the unpopular immigration reform bill. A Rasmussen Reports analysis of what happened to the McCain campaign noted that the man once considered a maverick is now the candidate most closely aligned with President Bush on two hot-button issues—the War in Iraq and immigration. That linkage is problematic when just 27% of voters nationwide say the President is doing a good or excellent job handling the situation in Iraq and only 15% give him favorable reviews on the immigration issue.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics.
Who is? Nobody at this juncture.
Rudy is faltering too. His foot in mouth syndrome has all but erased his “hero” appeal and crossover appeal.
To me, Fred is half a loaf. Perhaps three-quarters. Rudy, OTOH, is a breadcrumb.
You guys are dead wrong. We LOST the center in 2006. We’re not going to get it back by running a southern good-ol’ boy. Why, pray tell, would the Democrats fear Fred Thompson? And if he is so great then why doesn’t he throw his hat into the ring? Say what you want about Giuliani and McCain and Romney (I have problems with all of them) but at least they are debating and working to get votes. Fred Thompson is lazy, and that he won’t get into the race and would instead comment from afar while Sean Hannity had to save his ass from flubbing a question on abortion is insulting. Why shouldn’t he have to earn our votes like everyone else? Why should someone who hasn’t been vetted leap to the front of the pack? Shouldn’t he have to prove himself before he earns the support of Republicans?
He’s doing just fine. He’s down by 5 on Hillary and not even in the race yet.
Paying attention to head-to-head matchups at this point in the game isn’t productive.
You apparently are woefully ignorant regarding Mr. Thompson and his appeal to the electorate. The Dems are literally shaking at the thought of having to run against him. He will trounce any one of them and make it look easy while doing it.
I’m woefully ignorant?
What shred of evidence do you have to prove he’ll trounce ANY Democrat let alone every one?
What kind of appeal does Thompson have that Bush didn’t have in 2000, before all of the baggage of tough decisions that had to be made over the past 7 years?
What a pantload.
Point by point:
They fear him because they know he can win. Have you been over to DU and Daily Kos? They even grudgingly admit they agree with Fred on a few things and think he can win.
He is throwing his hat in - in early July. He didn’t do it yet, because then he’d have to report a poor financial showing at the end of this quarter (from jumping in mid-quarter) on June 30. He also had TV/movie contractual obligations. Lazy my ass...that’s an old, tired argument.
Sean Hannity didn’t save him from anything. Esp. considering that Sean has all but fellated Rudy Giuliani despite HIS abortion position anyway.
He is earning our votes. He’s already earned mine. Give the man time, and you’ll probably come around too.
"Fred looks too old."
"Only Guiliani can win."
"Why hasn't Fred jumped in too early like everyone else?"
"Fred's lazy."
It's all hogwash, and has been refuted a hundred times over, yet those of you who would sell out the soul of the party in the misguided notion that a guy who couldn't beat Hillary in a Senate campaign is a shoe-in to beat her for the Presidency still keep repeating it as if you can make it true by repeated assertion.
And what shred of evidence do you have that he won’t????
That’s what I thought.
How old are you? Do you even remember 2000? Conservatives were never excited about the prospect of GWB. There was nothing like the grassroots groundswell that has formed around Fred Thompson! Are you being deliberately obtuse or are you really that tone deaf?
Ability to communicate. Bush was never good at that. Respect for federalism and states' rights, another thing Bush never really focused on. Fred is socially conservative without coming across as a Bible-Thumper, which Bush always has and is one thing that would be a negative in the current political climate. At the same time though Fred still appeals to the Christian Right. A strong position in favor of border control without appearing to be a nutcase on the issue. Communicates conservatism without being a "compassionate conservative" - a great idea Bush had but it didn't turn out as well as we hoped, as it was not conservative in implementation.
And what shred of evidence do you have that he won’t????
That’s what I thought.
How old are you? Do you even remember 2000? Conservatives were never excited about the prospect of GWB. There was nothing like the grassroots groundswell that has formed around Fred Thompson! Are you being deliberately obtuse or are you really that tone deaf?
Don't buy into the FR myopia about Fred - both Hilly and Obama would beat him in a head-to-head match up. Expect FDT to get an electoral vote count close to what Bob Dole garnered.
And we have another one! They’re really crawling out of the woodwork today.
Apparently, nobody can beat Hillary using that logic.
So why don’t we just shoot every Democrat running, and every Democrat voter, then run Tom Tancredo and be done with it?
Let's wait a couple of months and I bet things will look different, and then another couple of months and you get the same type of political "mood" swings.
As of right now, it’s more likely than not that the dems win big in 2008, no matter who the GOP nominee is.
I don’t suggest shooting anyone. If the electorate wants Hillary, and gives her a powerful mandate, that’s good enough for me, even if I don’t like the electoral outcome.
In no particular order:
Well, you're not ignorant. But you've yet to respond to my post #30 in which I ask a question to a rather unthoughtful remark:
YOU: The public as a whole is tired of the Southern act from the Republicans.
ME: Then why is he polling so well even before entering the race?
If the public is so tired of the 'Southern act', then how is it that Fred is polling so well? I'd really like to know your answer. After all, the Rasmussen poll, which now has Fred one point ahead of Giuliani, is a national poll. It reflects Americans across the country; not just regional, Southern states.
Please respond.
Nonsense. They're both horrible candidates, and will be in full tailspins by the end of the first debate. If not sooner. Today's "horserace" poll numbers mean nothing -- it just shows that the majority of voters would have a fell-good "fuzzy" about voting for a black or woman candidate. Once the real campaign starts and people pay attention, things will change.
What the polls do tell us are trends. The trend is positive for Thompson, neutral for Obama, and negative for Clinton and Guiliani.
oh but it’s his cancer that will keep him from winning, didn’t you hear? no matter that rudy and mcnut have had cancer, his cancer trumps that of mcnut and rudy.
Meh, more generic doom and gloom from our resident rain cloud. You are underestimating Thompson and his appeal across the electorate. The case has been made many times. Of course, you only come by to spread a little of your doom and gloom without anything to support it.
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