Posted on 06/10/2007 4:16:30 PM PDT by Jeff Head
I am putting together a comprehensive comparison and analysis site regarding the face off in the Taiwan Starits between the Taiwan Navy (ROCN) and the Red Chinese Navy (PLAN).
I include in the analysis and the comparison, the likely surface combatants that the US would send to the assistance of Taiwan in the event of agression by the Red Chinese.
Please take a look by clicking on the logo below and let me know what you think:
Also, please feel free to refer others who have questions or interest regarding this potential flashpoint in toda6y's world.
It is clear, in the event of war, that the Taiwan navy would need the US assistance in order to hold out very long.
For what it’s worth, or not worth, at this point I don’t think the US can be counted on to commit any ships to the defense of the Republic of China in a timely fashion, except, perhaps, a few attack submarines.
I certainly hope they wouldn’t be foolish enough to send one carrier by itself (meaning, of course, without other carriers, but with its own supporting ships), and by the time the they could piece together a suitable force, it would be likely too late to commit it.
Lets face it - the Bush-Clinton-Bush team has gutted the Reagan navy, and a president that won’t even defend the US borders can’t be counted on to defend the ROC borders.
They have trouble getting folks to sell them the weapons that they need. Remember, the US promised them new submarines, but has never delivered. No one wants to offended the Reds.
All of that can help the ROCN quickly enough to make a difference.
I believe, short of an absolute disasterous Democratic administration (which sadly is possible), that we will come to the ROCs assistance.
Actually political infighting has prevented them from buying stuff they've been offered.
The current USN has far more actual combat capability than the USN in 1988, any way you look at it. Bean-counting numbers of ships doesn't cut it.
I was wondering if anyone can name the single most effective and efficient naval weapon of the last 100 years, dollar for dollar, which is also the weapon that since 1945 has done more damage to US Navy vessels than any other (and it’s not mentioned in this thread so far, which is a serious omission.)
The torpedo?
Three quick things that you might want to add to your analysis. The unifying theme of all three is that you need to look beyond the capabilities of the 688/688I boats to what the USN already has in place and what it will shortly have in place.
First, I think that both “standard” Seawolf SSNs are now (or will shortly be) stationed on the US West Coast, ostensibly as a way of saving $$$ by consolidating their specialized logisitics and support with their half-sister USS Jimmy Carter. The Carter is based at the SSBN facility in Puget Sound, having replaced Parche as the special missions boat.
Second, the Virginia-class SSNs are now hitting the fleet. AS with the Seawolfs, they provide significant improvement in capability and survivability over the 688/688Is.
Third, the Ohio Class SSGN conversions are about to hit the fleet as well, and at least two will be West Coast-based. In your ROCN/USN vs. PLAN scenario, their worth wouldn’t be so much in their SEAL capability, but the 130+ TLAMs each would be able to covertly carry to launch points VERY close to the Chinese mainland.
If the Reds don't win quickly, these people will be dealt with most severely.
I would expect the Red Chinese to litter their coast with mines, and pre-employ deep sea mines that could be nuclear. Not that nuclear mines are a good long term solution, but I would expect that type of thinking on their part.
Exocets hurt the British in the Falkland Island war. Iranian mines hurt us in the Persian Gulf. Fortunately we responded with a little force.
The Democratic party?
Mines.
If you look at WWI and WWII the number of ships sunk per mines laid is astonishingly high.
And since 1950, of the 19 USN ships destroyed or damaged, 14 of them were by mines.
Ask yourself these questions:
1) How much mine-clearing capacity does the PRC have?
2) How much mine-clearing experience do they have?
3) What happens when every PRC commercial and military port gets mined?
Ah, you got it...
But if you’re objectively analyzing the situation, people spend too much time thinking about our problems, and not the PRC’s problems.
The USN mineclearing capacity has been criminally overlooked for years (and this includes the “Reagan Navy”) though in recent years it’s gotten far more serious attention.
However, the PRC minclearing capacity is even worse.
For fun, ask the same question pointed the other way:
1) How much mine-clearing capacity does the ROC /USA have?
2) How much mine-clearing experience do they have?
3) What happens when every US commercial and military port gets mined?
Bonus question:
Where are all us minesweepers homeported, what is there maximum speed, and how loing would it take them to arrive at and clear the port of LA, New York, etc.
In the present political climate, there is no chance that the US will put its ships into harm’s way for Taiwan.IMHO
I will bet that it plays out like the New Orleans dykes. Everyone wants the money for their own neck of the woods, but doesn’t want to spend it on what is really needed.
If the MSM can blame Republicans for a disaster, look for wall-to-wall coverage of skiffs being blown sky high in the Puget Sound.
If they can’t blame Republicans, look for page 37 when the QE 2 gets holed.
People are forgetting - we’re playing defense here. It’s easier.
If everbody on both sides is paralyzed in port by mines, then Taiwan isn’t getting invaded (not that that’s a realistic scenario anyway, more realistic is a blockade) and both Taiwan and the PRC are in serious economic trouble.
???? It's not clear at all. Cuba hasn't made an accomdation to us, and they are 90 miles. What is clear is the PRCs can shove it.
US Navy opposition has within the Pentagon has been a factor, so your statement does have some element of truth, but the bigger issue is that the Europeans are afraid to sell to the Reds, and the Americans haven't had the political will to push.
Very few persons consider what mines can potentially do. Consider, smart mines that could distinguish between merchant and Naval vessels. Consider mines which could be laid offshore and “creep” into harbors for preplanned actions. Consider mines that could turn into a guided torpedo when the correct signature was recognized. One’s blood runs cold.
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