J-1 :: FRENCH ELECTION UPDATE :: France's UMP Expected to Dominate Ballot

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research ^ | June 9, 2007 | staff

[Cincinna]

Many adults in France will support their governing party in tomorrow’s legislative election, according to a poll by BVA released by Orange. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) in the National Assembly ballot, unchanged since late May.

In addition, 28 per cent of respondents would back the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), the Left Radical Party (PRG), or the Citizen’s Republican Movement (MRC). The Democratic Movement (MD) is third with eight per cent, followed by the far-right National Front (FN) or the National Republican Movement (MNR) with five per cent. Support is lower for the French Communist Party (PCF), Workers’ Struggle (LO) and the Revolutionary Communist League (LCR), and the Greens (Verts).

In the 2002 election to the National Assembly, the UMP received 33.3 per cent of the vote and secured 357 seats in the 577-member lower house. The PS was second, with 24.1 per cent and 141 mandates. The next election is scheduled for Jun. 10 and Jun. 17.

On May 6, UMP candidate and former interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidential run-off with 53.06 per cent of the vote. Sarkozy was sworn in on May 16. On May 17, the president appointed François Fillon as prime minister. Fillon had been Sarkozy’s adviser in the UMP for over two years, and was also his presidential campaign leader.

On Jun. 6, Fillon discussed the importance of the democratic process, saying, "If we lose ground in the legislative election compared to the presidential election, I won’t say the momentum will stop—but it will slow down. So I say to people who maybe think it’s not worth voting because the important election is over that that is not the case."

On Jun. 7, defeated PS presidential candidate Ségolène Royal told members of her party: "We must unite. Politics is a collective fight. (...) When you hear that according to the opinion polls, 80 per cent of the seats will go to Sarkozy’s people, we must react. On Sunday, the country must wake up."

Polling Data

Which of these parties’ candidates would you support in the National Assembly election?

Jun. 5 May 22 May 7

Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) 42% 42% 35%

Socialist Party (PS), Left Radical Party (PRG) or Citizens’ Republican Movement (MRC) 28% 30% 30%

Democratic Movement (MD) 8% 9% 9%

National Front (FN) or National Republican Movement (MNR) 5% 5% 8%

French Communist Party (PCF) 4% 3% 3%

Workers’ Struggle (LO) or Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) 3% 4.5% 5%

The Greens (Les Verts) 3% 3.5% 6%

Other right parties 4% 3% 4%

Source: BVA / Orange Methodology: Interviews with 820 registered French voters, conducted on Jun. 4 and Jun. 5, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

[Cincinna]

This is the final poll to appear before the Election on Sunday. There is a total blackout on campaigning and polling that began at midnight on Friday.

There are three important trends to note :

First, UMP is polling at 43% for the 1st round. Sarko has succeeded in eliminating the National Front of J-M le Pen from competition. The FN is polling at only 5%

Second,the Socialist Party appears to be on Life Support at 28% when combined with two fringe Leftist parties.

Third, the so-called “Centrist” party of Francois Bayrou, the new MD or MoDem, is polling at only 8%.

France has taken a sharp turn to the right.

[Fred Nerks]

France has taken a sharp turn to the right.

I'm so happy I could weep! Thank you for the updates.

[TigerLikesRooster]

This is the best outcome for France, IMHO. Weakened FN and powerful UMD mean that potentially dangerous political(and physical) confrontation is averted, and the change can be worked out in a regular political arena, not on the street.

It is also fortunate for France that electorate decisively showed the French left the door. It drastically reduces their trouble-making potential.

While politicians of boomer new-left origins still run amok in U.S. and Bush's losing his way, this is one of the best news you can have these days.

[skinkinthegrass]

It is also fortunate for France that electorate decisively showed the French left the door. It drastically reduces their trouble-making potential....

GOOD NEWS...Thanks, for the threads/posts...

*sigh* hopefully, the French will stay this course.....took them 90 years (WWI to the '06 Paris Riots) to veer away from socialism.

[SunkenCiv]

In addition, 28 per cent of respondents would back the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), the Left Radical Party (PRG), or the Citizen’s Republican Movement (MRC).

Since parties have to poll 12.5 per cent, there's a chance that one or more of those won't win any seats, eh?

[Uncledave]

Thanks for the great updates, Cincinna.

If the US and France continue on their current trends, I just might move there!