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IMO, you’ve nailed it. While the factors the original poster mentioned certainly influence birthrates, when children become a net economic liability birthrates plummet.

It’s not the whole story. Paying people to have kids won’t fix it. We already pay people to have kids. Earned income tax credit...welfare...wick, etc. It’s not working.

In the primarily agricultural societies of the West before 1900, children added to the wealth of the family as they were a source of labor on the farm. In the emerging industrial societies of the late 1800’s and early 1900’s wages of factory workers were extremely low and many children helped to bring in enough money for the family to survive. In these economies, children represented an economic advantage, not a liability. In addition, in the pre 1950’s world with limited social welfare programs for the elderly, a large family was often essential for survival in old age (i.e. he burden of caring for elderly parents would be shared by a number of children).

I agree with your premise that in today’s post industrial welfare state, children are now an economic liability for the working class. Despite the Bush tax cuts, the tax burden is very high for working people. Federal taxes of 20-30%, state and local income taxes of 6-10%, sales taxes of 6-8%, plus property taxes provide a real financial incentive for both members of a new marriage to work particularly in urban areas where the cost of living is high. This results in couples having children late which in turn means there will be fewer children.

Over the last 10 years other social and economic factors have made the economics of having children even less attractive. The private pension system has been destroyed, meaning a responsible young couple now has to save enough money during a 30-40 year career to pay for a basic standard of living during a 30 year retirement. The private health care system is coming unraveled and every year fewer workers have employer supplemented health insurance so they face rapidly inflating medical costs. Wages are under downward pressure due to global free trade and uncontrolled immigration. Add to all of these factors less job security in the global economy and high debt from college loans as young people begin their careers.

The welfare class breeds due to lack of moral inhibitions and because government transfer payments and programs cover their child rearing costs. Globalization and high government taxation mean many young working people see childbearing as an unbearable cost.

Another factor is the atrocious education system. Working families pay for the education system through taxes. They pay again when they sacrifice to send their children to private school or lose one income to home school.

Job income stability is also important for establishing and sustaining a nurturing home environment for children as well as realizing the income stream required to cover the costs of maintaining the family and raising the children. Over the past two decades jobs at all levels and every type of employment (except possibly government) have become much less secure. This makes it difficult for the family to plan its economic future and therefore discourages large families.

The cost of raising children is substantial in a post industrial economy, given other financial issues the family faces. The meager tax incentives do not come close to offsetting these costs.

My wife and I are beyond childbearing age. We wish we had more children as we are concerned about the long term death of our culture and society due to declining birthrates. However, if we were starting out in life today, I wonder if we would have any children at all.