You didn't believe he did because he told the South that he was going to reprovision the forts and why do that if you wanted war. Now Hurlbut's statement has been introduced. Hurlbut says, he told Lincoln that if you reprovision the forts, you have a war for that is what the South wants.
Let me repeat: this is the debate.
I am not arguing whether Lincoln was right or wrong in what he did. (I have an opinion on that but don't assume you know it... I just don't want it to get in the way of the true debate we are having) I am not arguing choices, etc.
In the light of both Lamon and Hurlbut's statements, and what he was told by commissioners, governors, etc., and what he read in both northern and southern newspapers... did he know that his actions would bring about a war?
If the answer is yes than my argument stands...The South was itching for a fight, and Lincoln gave it to them. If the answer is no than Lincoln was the stupidest man to ever occupy the White House for he could not properly discern the signs of the time.
The rest of your post is not germane to the debate we are having.
OK, then let's tackle the question directly. Did he know he would start a war? I don't know for sure and neither do you. My belief is that he feared he might but that he hoped that he would not. And I base this on the fact that, knowing he had no choice but to resupply Sumter, he chose the least provocative method of doing it. He made his intentions clear to the authorities in Charleston and basically left the question of peace or war in their hands. He could have tried to sneak into Charleston and land supplies. He could have set out from the beginning to land munitions, reinforcements, and supplies under the guns of a fleet. Instead he chose the way designed to maintain the status quo. Looking back from inauguration through the opening of the war, not one of Lincolns actions could be considered provocation except for the fact that he refused to surrender to Southern demands. If that is wanting war, well then you are welcome to your defintiion.
The answer is obviously "no". Lincoln was not a psychic. What Lincoln knew was that it was a strong possibility, but also a possibility that the situation at Sumter could be maintained as status quo or even that the hotheads would back off.
Just as JFK didn't know the reactions of the Russians in the Missile Crisis before he made his move; neither did Lincoln have foreknowledge of Davis' next move. He had only educated guesses as to whether he would receive bluffs and sabre ratting, or attack by the South. Such is the nature of brinksmanship in politics.