[LexBaird]

In the light of both Lamon and Hurlbut's statements, and what he was told by commissioners, governors, etc., and what he read in both northern and southern newspapers... did he know that his actions would bring about a war?

The answer is obviously "no". Lincoln was not a psychic. What Lincoln knew was that it was a strong possibility, but also a possibility that the situation at Sumter could be maintained as status quo or even that the hotheads would back off.

Just as JFK didn't know the reactions of the Russians in the Missile Crisis before he made his move; neither did Lincoln have foreknowledge of Davis' next move. He had only educated guesses as to whether he would receive bluffs and sabre ratting, or attack by the South. Such is the nature of brinksmanship in politics.

[carton253]

Lincoln was not a psychic. What Lincoln knew was that it was a strong possibility, but also a possibility that the situation at Sumter could be maintained as status quo or even that the hotheads would back off.

No Lincoln was not a psychic. But he wasn't politically naive or stupid.

For it seems only Lincoln knew that sailing those ships in the harbor would not result in a Civil War.