Posted on 05/18/2007 12:20:32 PM PDT by Sub-Driver
New Zealand Weatherman on Global Warming: 'It's All Going to be a Joke in 5 Years' Posted by Noel Sheppard on May 18, 2007 - 15:03.
The air continues to seep out of the global warming consensus balloon, ladies and gentlemen.
Meet Augie Auer, the former University of Wyoming professor of atmospheric science turned New Zealand meteorologist who isn’t buying what soon-to-be-Dr. Al Gore and his band of not so merry global warming alarmists are selling.
As reported by the New Zealand Timaru Herald (emphasis added throughout):
Man's contribution to the greenhouse gases was so small we couldn't change the climate if we tried, [Auer] maintained.
"We're all going to survive this. It's all going to be a joke in five years," he said.
A combination of misinterpreted and misguided science, media hype, and political spin had created the current hysteria and it was time to put a stop to it.
"It is time to attack the myth of global warming," he said.
Unlike folks such as Gore, Sheryl Crow, Laurie David, and Leonardo DiCaprio, Auer has actually studied and taught this science. As such, he walks the walks AND talks the talk:
Water vapour was responsible for 95 per cent of the greenhouse effect, an effect which was vital to keep the world warm, he explained.
"If we didn't have the greenhouse effect the planet would be at minus 18 deg C but because we do have the greenhouse effect it is plus 15 deg C, all the time."
The other greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen dioxide, and various others including CFCs, contributed only five per cent of the effect, carbon dioxide being by far the greatest contributor at 3.6 per cent.
However, carbon dioxide as a result of man's activities was only 3.2 per cent of that, hence only 0.12 per cent of the greenhouse gases in total. Human-related methane, nitrogen dioxide and CFCs etc made similarly minuscule contributions to the effect: 0.066, 0.047 and 0.046 per cent respectively.
"That ought to be the end of the argument, there and then," he said.
"We couldn't do it (change the climate) even if we wanted to because water vapour dominates."
Auer correctly concluded: "It's become a witch-hunt; a Salem witch-hunt."
Yes it has, Doctor. Unfortunately in this instance, the hunt is more serious because there are a lot more people involved, and the consequences far more dire.
we now it's a joke. However, the Stalinists love it b/c it is the latest mechanism to be used to destroy Capitalism. The celebs believe in global warming because they are idiots. It gives their empty lives meaning as they fly around the world in their G5 telling everyone that they are "trying to save the world."
Five years?
For me it was a joke from the get-go.
The whole hysterical episode is as ignorant and as stupid as were the bumper stickers from the 70s... "ENVIRONMENT NOW!"
What the author said is “mad made CO2 is 3.2% of all the CO2’ If man made CO2 increased by 14.2 % and I believe that to be true how does that negate the 3.2% contribution. If other natural sources of CO2 increased as well then man made CO2 is still 3.2% of all CO2. If man made CO2 keeps increasing that would mean that humans would create 5 or 7 or even 9% of CO2. That would still make it such a small percent of greenhouse gases that the absurdity of man made global warming still holds. Water vapor is between 95-97% of all greenhouse gases and we focus all our attention on CO2 and wrongly assume or lie that humans make all the CO2.
I was in a group of about 70 people who worked on Y2K program remediation. Our group looked at tens of thousands of programs and made an average of about 4 in each one. That was one little group. Worldwide millions of programs were reviewed and fixed. If, after all that effort, we still had massive problems, that would have been cause for lament. All we proved was if you mobilize the entire I/I community for several years they can eradicate a rather simple but pervasive problem.
When people tell me we spent too much money on fixing computer programs I ask: What level of failure did you want? Did you want loan accounts to suddenly be 99 years behind schedule? We have a manager whose husband received a notice that his next loan payment was 36,160 days overdue. Did you want insurance policies to expire because the billing notices weren't sent out? After all, they wouldn't be due for 99 years. Did you want inventories of chemicals to all get thrown out prematurely or, worse, remain on shelves 99 years past their due date?
The important thing about Y2K was that the lawyers were banking on years of lawsuits based on Y2K claims. They came up empty. So we techies screwed the lawyers. It's a good thing.
I read some scientific article recently that said the "sampling" used to come up with these numbers were flawed -- they used the "low end" numbers for the earlier period, in order to make it a dramatic rise. The article had a graph showing the sampling points used. Most on our side, are quite rational and not afraid of the facts. Remember reality doesn't matter to the Stalinists, they will use any method to gain control.
/s
His facts are straight. The 14.2% increase is the total increase in atmospheric CO2 levels. The annual contribution of humans is 3.2%, but it has led to the 14.2% in total CO2 because of compounding. It's like interest in a savings account. Even with compounding, man-made CO2 has a negligible effect on the planet's temperature.
Dried BEANS...............
Someone reciting the actual numbers and facts? Oh, that’s not fighting fair.
My point was that we should be completely honest about the facts, or we are no more credible then the chicken littles.
Alar.
My salute goes out to you, sir.
Not true. CO2 levels have cycled with temperature increases throughout history, and long before humans showed up. I do, however, believe that humans are partially responsible for the recent increases. I also believe that we can prove that those increases have a negligible effect on global temperature.
In 5 years, the committment level in terms of social change and monies spent will have built its own inertia to the point that if then a consensus of scientists come out against the notion, the politicians will chase them off stage.
You want to talk credible?
That's still 0.0012.
Only the ignorant fear what they don't understand.
Have at it.
By the way, the 1950 figure is arbitrary and meaningless. To have a grasp of the issue in a natural phenomenon billions of years old, you need a longer view than that.
"Normalcy" in nature is not defined as when you or your parents were born.
Never has; never will.
BTW 3.2% compounded over 20 years would be an increase of 87%. Far more then the actual case.
The real potential problem is the small warming caused by CO2 will cause increased water vapor levels which will in turn cause more warming. This feedback mechanism is further complicated by changes in cloud and snow/ice cover which have their own feedback effects.
Computer modelers can pull assumptions about these feedback levels out of their @#$% and get any answer they want.
By the way, why don't we hear as much about overpopulation as we did a few years ago?
Humans do the measuring; some of them have motives.
200% of .0002% is still a minuscule number.
you state like this is as proven as E=MC2. Sorry, but the "other" side is devious, and much of what the call science is a fraud. I have NO worry about the climate going out of control, I worry about the Stalinists solutions destroying our way of life. As an engineer who has dealt with models many, many orders of magnitude less complicated than what it would take to model the climate, I would say any serious scientists doing climate modeling would be quite humbled at the complexity of that task. A small tweak in just one initial conidition could cause a vastly changed output.
The utter arrogance of those who say, "the science is settled" saddens me. Everything about Gore and the left is negative and utterly pessimistic. What a sad way to live. And more importantly, what an absolute waste of one's life to worry about false issue. If the climates changes, so what, man will adapt (If we are free to adapt).
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