Posted on 05/07/2007 9:44:04 PM PDT by Valin
We have heard plenty of people talk about the idea of splitting Iraq into three autonomous cantons in order to allow each of the three main demographics groups to run a portion of the country. Senator Joe Biden has pushed this idea for months, claiming it to be the only way out of Iraq. Recently, Sam Brownback endorsed that plan and wants to team up with Biden to present it to the Senate. According to the plan's advocates, a partition will provide the only framework for enabling the Sunnis, which has a lower level of population than the majority Shi'a or the already-transitioned Kurds.
However, the leader of the Sunnis in the Iraqi National Assembly has threatened to walk out and take his coalition with him until the Iraqi government rejects this notion completely:
Iraq's top Sunni official has set a deadline of next week for pulling his entire bloc out of the government -- a potentially devastating blow to reconciliation efforts within Iraq. He also said he turned down an offer by President Bush to visit Washington until he can count more fully on U.S. help.
Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi made his comments in an interview with CNN. He said if key amendments to the Iraq Constitution are not made by May 15, he will step down and pull his 44 Sunni politicians out of the 275-member Iraqi parliament. "If the constitution is not subject to major changes, definitely, I will tell my constituency frankly that I have made the mistake of my life when I put my endorsement to that national accord," he said.
Specifically, he wants guarantees in the constitution that the country won't be split into Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish federal states that he says will disadvantage Sunnis.
As I have said for months, partition would be a disaster for the Sunnis. They have a chance to participate in a meaningful manner in a united Iraq, but a partition would trade a small interest in a large profit pool for a whole interest in nothing at all. They would find themselves locked out of any meaningful control over the natural resources of Iraq, and they know full well that a Swiss style of federalism will mean that the Kurds and Shi'a could walk away with all of the oil revenue at any time.
We need to stop encouraging this proposal. The Sunnis will not agree to it, no matter how many guarantees we and the Maliki government make about the security of the oil revenue. They want to see an integrated Iraq, not a canton system that will allow the country to spin apart into three pieces. The Sunnis also mistrust Iran and their influence on the Shi'ites -- as should we.
The next time Biden insists on this answer, ask him which Iraqis want to see their country undergo the Munich treatment.
Of course, the Sunni’s don’t want partition. They’d get nothing—no access to the ocean, no oil. NOTHING!
Exactly. Partition was always a Shiite desire, the Sunni were never for it, and even the Kurds were iffy as it would incite Turkey.
And only a proportion of the Shiites at that, the ones in the contiguous and solid south. They would have the southern oilfields and oil terminal and not have to deal with unhappy Sunnis. The ones in Baghdad and environs would be in just as bad a state as the Sunni.
First there was Rice (I think she still works at the State Department), then Pelosi took over the job, and now Senators Biden and Brownback want dictate foreign policy.
The main thing against partition is that Iraq has never been partisioned along the lines of Kurd, Aran Sunni, Arab Shia. When the Turks ruled it, it was divided into three parts, all right, but the three parts were divided on lines running east and west and had the three major cities cities as their capitals. Dividing the country among these three religious/ethnic groups would be as dangerous as the division of the Austrian and Russian Empires after World War I.
They could ensure Sunni participation in oil revenues by privatizing the oil and issuing ownership shares to every person or adult in equal amounts.
As long as the government owns all the oil there will always be fear that it will cheat some out of their fair share.
I don’t see the Arab states letting the Sunnis go now. The crazy thing is that the Sunnis are fighting us when we are the only force in Iraq that gives them hope of a share of power. If we leave, however, the Arab states will intervene on the side of the Sunnis and the Turks will intervene in the north.
Good! Now if only we could set it up so the Shiites would get the same.
I say we give the shia to Iran, theu sunni’s to syria, and become the kurds best buddies. We tell Iran and Syrua that if terrorism doesn’t stop we do what we know how to do, take down governments, and destroy your conventional military forces, then we give you to somebody else. maybe turkey would like syria and pakistan would like Iran. and the Kurds get Kurdistan, M1A2’s, AH64’s, and MLRS’s
We get a whopping big airbase in Kurdistan and cheap oil.
nuff said..
I thought the MSM were shouting possibilities of civil war. If they want unity, what is the point to engage in a civil war? There is a double standard somewhere.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the smaller you make a country, the less likely it is to be of ANY significance, overall...
Guess what? Joe, Sam. Iraq has a constitution, ratified by its people in a general election. That document describes their country's government. They don't care what you think their country should look like.
the Arab states will intervene on the side of the SunnisIf the Arab states intervene on the side of the Sunnis, that also means they're aligning against Iran, right?
There are some Sunni groups fighting us like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq, but most aren’t. If most were we would already be out of Iraq.
That does not means they will intervene effectively After all, Saudi money is helping to keep the insurrection going.
Some Sunni tribes have waked to the fact that we are their best bet to have some share in the government of Iraq.
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