Posted on 05/07/2007 9:32:58 AM PDT by Unmarked Package
In the first poll of New Hampshire Republican Primary voters since the GOP debate at the Reagan Library last week, Mitt Romney, former Governor of neighboring Massachusetts, jumps into a breathtaking lead over Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely NH Republican Primary voters conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston.
Romney gets 32% today, measurably better than Giuliani at 23% and McCain at 22%, who tie for 2nd place. Actor Fred Thompson, who was not included in previous SurveyUSA polling of New Hampshire GOP Primary voters, but who is included in these results, finishes 4th, at 11%.
Who is Up? Who is Down?
Compared to a NH SurveyUSA WBZ-TV poll released 1/29/07, Giuliani and McCain have each lost 10 points. The two had been tied for first, 33% then for Giuliani, 32% then for McCain.
Romney is up 11 points, from 21% then to 32% now. That's a 21-point swing to Romney among likely GOP Primary voters.
What's changed?
In January, Romney got 16% among those in favor of stem-cell research. Today Romney gets 31% among those in favor of stem-cell research. Romney's debate answer on this question -- so scholarly that moderator Chris Matthews momentarily thought Romney had mis-heard the question -- appears to have resonated. But at the same time, Romney's stem-cell answer has not cost Romney support among pro-life voters.
Romney gets 38% among pro-life voters today, 19 points higher than McCain, 22 points higher than Giuliani and 26 points higher than Thompson, who are clustered far back.
Among the 60% of NH Primary voters who say they are Conservative, Romney gets 35% today, 15 points better than McCain, 18 points better than Giuliani, 21 points better than Thompson.
Giuliani's support skews young. McCain's support skews old. Romney's support is even across all age groups.
Because SurveyUSA's questionnaire in January did not explicitly name Thompson, SurveyUSA does not here produce tracking graphs, since an exact, apples-to-apples track, is not possible. However, you may access the 1/29/07 New Hampshire data here.
WBZ—a BOSTON station.
Nuff said.
FWIW, no polls up here yet include Fred Thompson. Watch what happens if/when he declares he’s running.
No thanks. 15% of Romney’s money came from Utah. Utah houses roughly one half of America’s Mormon population. The average Utah resident, is about 30% more likely to be aware of Romney candidacy, due to his work on the Salt Lake City Olympics. Even assuming that every dollar Romney received from Utah comes from Mormons (pretty unlikely), and even discounting the fact that people outside of Utah are less aware of Romney (including Mormons), and thus less likely to donate to his campaign: in short, even assuming a flat out nationwide extrapolation based on Utah’s numbers, we’re left with only 30% of his donations coming from Mormons. Try to tie him to some vast Mormon conspiracy all you like, or try to diminish his accomplishments. But the facts don’t agree.
Umm...THIS poll includes Fred Thompson. He’s at 11% (1/3 of Romney’s support). Did you even view the link?
Polls mean nothing this far out. Ronald Reagan was 30 points down compared to Jimmy Carter and Bush senior was running around claiming he was more electable since the polls were higher. Vote for the guy you like, ignore the national polls today.
Corrected to add, none UNTIL NOW. And Thompson wasn’t even in the debate. Sorry, it’s the Mas**ole overflow that’s DU’ing these polling results. NH is turning into Mass-lite and this shows.
More and more debates, exposure and comparison to the other candidates is good--as it will allow continued emphasis on his core liberal values. It will take a while--but his support in the Party is on a slow, but certain, long-term downhill slide. The more chances to compare him to all the other candidates,,the better!
If you think the Republican Party is just NOT LIBERAL ENOUGH--and you want to greatly accelerate that march to the LEFT,,,,
JulieAnnie is JUST THE MAN FOR THE JOB!!
See my correction above. I know more than a few people here in NH who are holding back their support (and their checkbooks) until Thompson actually declares. When he does that, a lot of his support is going to come from the McCain/Rudy camps on top of those who already know his politics.
Mitt has been open -- in the past -- about his desire to liberalize the Republican Party from within:
"If we are to achieve the goals we share, we must make equality for gays and lesbians a mainstream concern. My opponent cannot do this. I can and will." -- Mitt Romney, seeking the endorsement of the Log Cabin Republicans
Of course, he doesn't talk like this now.
It's a dirty, slimy, sleazy, used car salesman tactic, but that's the Romney way. Hide the flaws, smile nice, rip you off, and laugh about it later.
Giuliani is looking at 3rd place in Iowa, New Hampshire AND Nevada (the other of the first three contests). He’s trailing McCain in South Carolina as well. And that’s before Thompson hops in.
His attitude of “Damnit, enthrone me, you stupid hicks!” isn’t working too well.
The lesson for Rudy is that it is better to waffle than to wiffle.
I think the Mormon conspiracy is bunk, also, but the way I figure it, Utah is home to 1 in 5 Mormons, and 1 in 6 Romney donors. That hardly disproves the Mormon connection. But so what if Romney’s early cash is Mormon. It beats Bill Clinton’s early cash coming from homosexuals. :^D
Survey USA is not liberal.
It looks like ABR-——the “Anybody But Rudy” vote is weighing in.
Although.......I must admit.......I was pleasantly surprised at the presidential aura Romney projected at the debate. And his sense of humor.
I was not expecting this at all.....probably came as a surprise to a lot of voters.
Picturing Romney up against Her Heinous, Romney makes Hil look like a sniveling mean-spirited pretender.
I don’t know whether Romney can win the general or not. However, he has a much, much better chance than Giuliani does. Giuliani is unelectable.
I like the GOP chances right now. With the correct team, we could win it all. I still like Fred Thompson for President, and Duncan Hunter for VP. I would still vote for Romney if he is the nominee. The only candidates I have completely eliminated are Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and any anti-war candidate(s).
Its hard to miss Romneys comely assets! LOL
Pleasant to say the least!
Hillary is a classless, marxist shrew, and would make a poor performance against a Romney, not to mention he is just a whole lot purtier than she!
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