Posted on 05/03/2007 10:44:25 AM PDT by RWR8189
Tom Cole earned a Ph.D. in British history from the University of Oklahoma, intending to become a college professor, but he came to his senses and to a zest for politics and now, in just his third term in the House of Representatives, he is chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. As such, he is charged with recruiting the candidates and honing the tactics that will transform Speaker Nancy Pelosi back to House minority leader. "We are looking," says Cole, speaking unminced words about the Republican Party, "like a beaten down stock." Nevertheless, he is sanguine regarding 2008: "The positioning is good for us'' because "we don't have to conquer new territory, we have to reclaim old territory.''
That is, 61 Democrats represent districts that George W. Bush carried in 2004. A 16-seat gain in 2008 would restore Republican control to the House.
Consider the second district in Kansas. Jim Ryun held the seat easily for five terms. In 2006, he lost to Nancy Boyda, who won with just 50.6 percent. In 2008, President George W. Bush will not be, as he was in 2006, a burden at the top of the ticket. And Kansas' popular Republican senator, Pat Roberts, will be on the ticket. And Kansas' popular Democratic governor, Kathleen Sebelius, who helped Democrats down the ballot in 2006, will be in the middle of her second term.
Might Democrats gain some seats they nearly won in 2006 -- for example, the then-open Chicago-area seat previously held for 16 terms by Republican Henry Hyde? The Democrats' novice candidate, Tammy Duckworth, who lost both legs in the Iraq War, got 48.65 percent against Republican Peter Roskam. Cole says he hopes the Democrats will throw resources at that seat because they will be wasting dollars, given that they could not
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I am hopeful about this, but the odds aren’t great so far.
I am confident that Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R-TX) will be returning to Congress, but that’s about it so far.
The GOP lost the House because of its refusal to secure the borders, Denny Hastert’s bizzaro world view congresscritters are above the law, and Tom Foley.
They lost the Senate due to shear political stupidity, insisting on bridges to nowhere, the gang of fourteen nonsense, and Bill Frists tepid leadership.
There was no ‘mandate’ for the Democratic Party, there was disgust on the part of the GOP base with what we were seeing.
It’ll be interesting to see what impact the Presidential race will have on them this time around.
Gibbs?
Didn’t she prove to be a nut during her two week stint in the House?
Come on Texans find us someone good.
Tell it dude. You must have looked at this with your good eye.
Regards
Thanks. The screenname isn’t in reference to my eyesight, btw.
Here’s a list of 20 U.S. House seats which the Democrats won, with under 55%, in 2006, with my suggestions of Republicans who could probably win those seats, in ‘08. If you have suggestions for these races, please post your ideas.
AZ-5; AZ-8, Secretary of State Jan Brewer; CA-11; CT-2; FL-16; FL-22, State Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson; GA-8, Lt. Gov. Karen Handel; GA-12; IL-8; IN-2; KS-2; KY-3; MN-1, Lt. Gov. Carol Molnan; NH-1; NH-2; PA-4; PA-10; TX-22; VT-At-large; and WI-8.
I’m certain we will take back FLA-16 and TX-23 (that’s DeLay’s old seat) but I kind of hope it isn’t Shelley, because she went kind of crazy during her 2 months in office. But she showed that, if her name was on the ballot, she would beat the democrats.
I think we’ll also take back a few seats that went to “conservative democrats” who aren’t turning out to be conservative, as well as other democrats who won ONLY because they were “against the war”, since I doubt being for or against the war will be an issue in 2008.
I say that because either it will be much better in which case people won’t vote over it, or it will be much worse in which case nobody will run FOR it.
It’d be great if he could get NH-2 back, but that part of NH has been trending more Democrat. Someone will have to tell us what the GOP bench there is like.
We also need to look at other seats besides the Democrat freshmen, like Chet Edwards, Alan Mollohan, John Spratt, Leonard Boswell, Jim Marshall, John Barrow, and Charlie Melancon. I wish we could also put Bud Cramer, John Salazar, Allen Boyd, and some of the Long Island seats like Tim Bishop into play. It also amazes me we can’t run a competitive race against Tim Holden after he narrowly won after getting thrown in via redistricting with an underperforming Republican incumbent in 2002. Plus we have three Democratic seats in Arkansas, all carried by Bush, but we can’t seem to do jack with those.
A few seats that I mentioned don’t have freshmen. Rep. Melissa Bean, of Illinois’ 8th District, received 52%, in 2004, and 51%, in ‘06. The majority of the state senators, state reps. and county board members, in that district, are Republicans. That district had republican congressmen, 1961-2005.
I am surprised a number of Republicans, including some state senators, say they want to take on Chris Murphy in CT-5. I think it is unlikely they can dislodge him though. Joe Courtney in the 2d won by only like 80 votes but I fear he is well entrenched now, despite that tiny win. That district has always favored Dems, sadly. Things aren’t getting any better for Republicans in CT. I think Jodi Rell might be the last GOP governor for a long time, after she retires.
I seriously doubt Roskam in IL can be beaten next time out. If the Dems couldnt win in ‘06 with everything going for them, I think we will hold that one. I am optimistic the GOP can pick up some of those southern seats, especially in GA. Those 2 Dems were very lucky to have squeaked by in ‘06.
I think at this point the Repubs might pick up a handful of seats but it is hard to see them taking back the majority at this point. You never know though. And if the Dems’ majority is reduced then they will be on the defensive for 2010, especially if a Democrat president is elected. I would say their control would be endangered after that.
“Nor was it George W. Bush’s fault.”
Sigh...he didn’t help matters, and firing Rumsfeld AFTER the election was plain dumb politics, especially since the Whitehouse claims that was the plan for months before.
That said, no it wasn’t his fault. I still can’t believe Delay stated ‘there is nothing left to cut’ in regards to a budget with 31,000 earmarks...and that damn bridge to nowhere.
I’m not optimistic about winning either house back so we better win the Presidency. If we don't, we are in a world of hurt.
Gibbs did a lot of stupid things during her run, including entering a polling place and speaking to several people. Then I think most of her staff resigned while serving under her.
“I liked Rumsfeld but I like Gates too. While some were teaching the Republican’s a lesson, they got taught a lesson too. I hope they did anyway.
I’m not optimistic about winning either house back so we better win the Presidency. If we don’t, we are in a world of hurt.”
I’ve never been a straight party line voter...and given what took place here in Ohio under Bob ‘Tax Em!’ Taft, I couldn’t vote GOP at all last fall.
It wasn’t about ‘teaching a lesson’ it was about an Ohio GOP that was in reality completely and totally corrupt....to the point they attacked their own candidate, Ken Blackwell, with overt racist ads in the primaries. So I voted for Blackwell, but that was it. Of course, he lost.
Sounds like Katherine Harris
Well, in AL we have a very good Republican Governor but the Legislature is mostly Democrat and they are on the dole from everywhere. I think we need term-limits. Fat chance of getting that in this state.
I love spending time in Alabama. Great people, friendly as all get out.
And the sound of a deep southern drawl from a woman’s lips....well, they can pretty much get me to do anything a’tall....(chuckle)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.