I have not spent a lot of time studying the races yet, so input from the various states is welcome.
I plan to post an Update thread in November 07, then as needed thereafter...
I have not spent a lot of time studying the races yet, so input from the various states is welcome.
And we will not be able to do it with a weak (ie, liberal) candidate on top of the ticket.
Pretty much, but I don't think Arkansas is a good chance.
Retirements are key.
*****Hagal IS NOT SAFE!!!!!**** Our state attorney general (R) will probably run against him, the first state poll out, Hagal LOOSES to Brunning by like 12%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Levin is safe for now but there really hasn’t been much talk about who would mount a serious challenge. Too bad we can’t get Rick Santorum to move to Michigan.
“NE- R- Hagel* safe (may retire)”
We should be so lucky!
Here is my take on some of them-
AL- Democrats are trying to get state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks to run, and he would be a credible candidate, although Jeff Sessions would still be the favorite.
AR- Right now, it looks like Mark Pryor will face a third-tier challenge from former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks.
CO- Democrats have definitely settled on liberal Congressman Mark Udall. By contrast, the GOP field is very unsettled. The GOP establishment is reaching out to state Attorney General John Suthers, who has made no decision.
ID- Will Senator Larry Craig seek reelection? Democrat ex-Congressman Larry LaRocco is running, but everything would have to break his way for him to win.
IA- It now looks like Senator Tom Harkin won’t face a serious challenge. Too bad, as he’s a near-Marxist.
LA- All bets are off until the 2007 Governor’s race, which looks very promising. Possible candidates to face Senator Mary Landrieu are ex-state Elections Commissioner Suzanne Terrell, Congressman Richard Baker, and Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, with Terrell seeming most likely to run.
ME- RINO Senator Susan Collins will probably be challenged by ultralib Congressman Tom Allen, a former Portland Mayor. Collins remains the front-runner, but this is a top-tier race.
MA- Amazingly, John Kerry is unpopular in his home state. Whether it will matter remains to be seen, as he won’t be challenged in the primary and the state GOP has seen better days.
MN- Senator Norm Coleman will be challenged by comedian Al Franken, who IMHO is the Katherine Harris of the 2008 Senate elections.
MT- Will Senator Max Baucus be challenged by Congressman Denny Rehberg? Right now, it doesn’t appear all that likely.
NE- This is intriguing. RINO Senator Chuck Hagel will be challenged by state Attorney General Jon Bruning, who claims to be leading in internal polls. On the Democrat side, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, a Ben Nelson ally, is waiting in the wings.
NH- Senator John Sununu is in big trouble politically. Will ex-Governor Jeanne Shaheen run again? Polls currently show her ahead.
NJ- Senator Frank Lautenberg is unpopular. But, once again, NJ Republicans can’t get a strong candidate to run. Right now, wealthy developer Anne Evans Estabrooks appears to be the favorite of the state RINO establishment, in large part because she can self-fund her race, which means they won’t have to.
NM- Suddenly, Pete Domenici has some doubts about his prospects, due to charges about him badgering a U.S. Attorney. It appears to have caused some damage, but unless more comes out of it, it probably won’t be fatal.
NC- To the surprise of the GOP, Senator Elizabeth Dole is showing shaky poll numbers. Democratic Congressman Brad Miller is considering a race.
OR- Senator Gordon Smith is worried about his reelection prospects and is pandering shamelessly to what he considers to be “the middle” in Oregon. Possible Democrat opponents include Congressman Earl Blumenauer and party-switching state Senator Ben Westlund.
SD- Two questions. First, will ailing Senator Tim Johnson seek reelection? Second, will Governor Mike Rounds run against him? No one knows the answer to either. One one hand, Johnson’s condition precludes any criticism of him without risking a backlash. On the other hand, if Johnson doesn’t improve dramatically over the next year, questions about his ability to be Senator could sink him.
TX- Senator John Cornyn is polling poorly. Lucky for him, the state Democrats are in terrible shape. Right now, it looks like only former state Controller John Sharp would be a strong opponent, and he has made no moves to run so far.
VA- Will 2008 be Warner vs. Warner II, the sequel? Until we know the answer, all other questions are off. Ex-Governor Mark Warner would be difficult to beat, but it’s not clear whether he’ll make the plunge. If John Warner retires, the GOP nominee will be Congressman Tom Davis, but conservatives aren’t enthusiastic about him.
John Warner (RINO-VA) has said he is not retiring. If control of the Senate came down to the VA seat and mine were THE deciding vote, I still couldn’t bring myself to vote for John Warner.
It’ll be interesting if Mark Warner (D) former governor of enormous popularity were to challenge him(not that I’d vote for him, either). He may be nabbed yet for the Dems’ VP nomination, tho, to put a popular southern D on the ticket. He originally entered the presidential fray and almost immediately pulled out. Has a personal fortune to invest, should he go that way, and could carry VA’s electoral votes.
Here’s my amateur opinion:
TN (Alexander), SC (Graham), NC (Dole) are SAFE. ME (Collins) is a very likely hold. Depending on who runs against Coleman (MN) I think he has better than 50% chance against Franken and at best a 50% chance against a standard liberal Dem candidate. OR (Smith) is probably 50% best case. Probably right about MT - we likely have a 1 in 3 chance of picking it up. VA is vulnerable if Warner retires or in a Warner vs. Warner contest. SD may backfire if the “health card” is played. Graham will not lose the SC primary. LA may be the best hope for a pick-up. NJ: Kean Jr. likely has a better chance at governor.
Of course I can’t remember the source, but it rang kinda plausable for Michigan. Karl Lenin will run for the ‘08 reelection, then decide close to the end of Clueless Jenny’s term as governor in ‘10 that he no longer wants to be in the Senate due to age, etc. Clueless appoints herself to the seat, her husband elitist Dan then runs for the governor slot in ‘10. Elitest Dan Mulhern is the real brains, or lack thereof, in the current Clueless administration. The adoring Michigan kool aid drinkers elect him governor, and subsequently her in ‘14 to the senate seat in her own right. That is, if Clueless doesn’t got a spot as some secretariat (commerce?) in the Clinton Administration. Of course, the Michigan GOP is doing absolutely nothing in the meantime to derail any such plans, or any plans by any democrat for that matter. The head of the Michigan GOP, Saul Anuzis does have time to attack Ann Coulter for calling out limp wrist Edwards however.
I think we're looking at a 44-56 Senate for 2009-2011, at least.
The question is - Can Giuliani provide coattails to protect Collins, Smith, Sununu, and Coleman?