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Senate Update 2008

Colorado: After the surprise departure from the race of former Rep. Scott McInnis (R), former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) appears to be the only one willing to take up the mantle for the GOP in this year’s Senate race.

Rep. Mark Udall (D), the putative Democratic nominee, begins with an enormous financial advantage with more than $1.5 million in the bank. Colorado has been trending Democratic, and the loss of the seat of retiring Sen. Wayne Allard (R) would signal another step in this ominous trend for the GOP that already includes the loss of the other Senate seat in 2004, the loss of the governorship, the loss of former Rep. Bob Beauprez’s seat in the Denver suburbs last year, and the loss of both chambers of the state legislature.

Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D-Maine) is surely a more formidable challenger to Sen. Susan Collins (R) than her 2002 opponent, Chellie Pingree (D). Collins is a moderate who is nonetheless the more conservative of Maine’s two Republican senators. She is beloved in Maine, but after the defeat of so many Northeastern Republican moderates in 2006 — including Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) — there is doubt as to whether they can long survive.

Allen already had more than $800,000 on hand to Collins’s $1.2 million in campaign money as of the end of March. Her fundraising clip was much faster in the first quarter, but this will change as soon as he makes his official announcement over the Memorial Day weekend. Collins is already being attacked by outside groups on television for opposing an Iraq withdrawal timetable.

Minnesota: With no serious top-tier candidate emerging to challenge freshman Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), Republicans here are breathing a sigh of relief. Coleman caught a break with the prospect that comedian and radio talk-show host Al Franken will likely be his Democratic opponent for re-election next year. Coleman will benefit from the presence of the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis next year.

Minnesota went largely blue in the 2006 elections, and the overriding Republican national outlook for 2008 is poor. However, Coleman leads Franken, a polarizing figure, in the few polls taken so far, and Coleman’s favorables are much better than those of the comedian. Wealthy lawyer Mike Ciresi is also seeking the Democratic nomination, but Franken is equally well financed and is a favorite among anti-Bush activists.

Oregon: Republican Sen. Gordon Smith, considered vulnerable for re-election from the blue state of Oregon, also was fortunate in losing his toughest potential Democratic foe. Rep. Pete DeFazio (D) decided instead to stay in the House, where he is chairman of an important Transportation and Infrastructure subcommittee.

Smith’s fundraising has been excellent, leaving him with $2.8 million on hand at the end of the last quarter. His poll numbers had been problematic, but he has deliberately and vocally distanced himself from President Bush on the Iraq War, which is likely to help him quite a bit. Also helpful will be the non-aggression pact he has with his colleague, popular Sen. Ron Wyden (D), who will basically sit on his hands during the election.

DeFazio holds down a very competitive district, and so his decision to stay in the House makes life a bit easier for Democratic Congressional Campaign Chairman Christopher Van Hollen (D-Md.).

Democrats would like to entice Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D) into this race, but his small war chest (about $400,000) and his majority position on the Ways and Means Committee could deter him from taking such a risk. Smith has been targeted before to no effect, but Oregon has become much bluer since his 2002 re-election. Republicans, already staring down a Senate year in which they will likely lose seats, would love to have this race taken off the map.