Posted on 04/28/2007 7:59:26 PM PDT by RobFromGa
FIRST PASS 4/29/07
EIGHTEEN MONTHS AWAY FROM NOV 2008 election, here’s a list of the 33 Senate races. The GOP is defending 21 seats, and the Dems defend 12.
THere are 67 Senate seats that are not up for election. The GOP starts with 28 carryover seats, and the Dems start with 39 (counting the 2 liberal independents).
I am just getting into these contests and up to speed regarding many of them, there might be errors here, and I look to get input from fellow Freepers in order to update this information. I plan to put up a new thread in November 2007 with the updates and information on the various Senate primaries.
There are another 18 seats that are essentially SAFE, barring some major change of events between now and November 2008, 12 for the GOP and 6 for the Dems.
SAFE GOP SEATS [12]
AK- (R= current seatholder)- Stevens safe
AL- R- Sessions safe
GA- R- Chambliss safe
ID- R- Craig* safe (may retire- should still be safe GOP)
KS- R- Roberts safe
KY- R- McConnell safe
MS- R- Cochran safe
NE- R- Hagel* safe (may retire)
OK- R- Inhofe safe
NM- R- Domenici safe
TX- R- Cornyn safe
WY- R- Enzi safe
GOP: 12 safe + 28 carryovers = 40 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS [6]
DE- (D=current status)- Biden safe
IL- D- Durbin safe
MA- D- Kerry safe
MI- D- Levin safe
RI- D- Reed safe
WV- D- Rockefeller safe (I wish we could make this a GOP seat! somehow)
DEMS: 6 safe + 39 carryovers = 45 minimum DEM
The FIFTEEN SENATE “CONTESTS” (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
TN- R seat- ALEXANDER vs. ??? (80%)
SC- R seat- L. GRAHAM vs. ??? (80%) primary challenge
VA- R seat- J. WARNER vs. M. Warner ??? (70%) might retire
ME- R seat- COLLINS (RINO) vs. ??? (65%)
NC- R seat- DOLE vs. ??? (60%)
MN- R seat- COLEMAN vs. Franken (lol)??? (50%)
SD- D seat- Rounds? vs. JOHNSON (50%) Johnson health issues a big wild card
LA- D seat- ??? vs. LANDRIEU (45%)
AR- D seat- Huckabee? vs. PRYOR (45%)
OR- R seat- SMITH (RINO) vs. ??? (45%) Sizemore primary challenge?
CO- R seat- OPEN* Rayburn? (ALLARD self term limited retiring) vs. Udall? (45%)
NH- R seat- SUNUNU vs. ??? (40%)
MT- D seat- Racicot? vs. BAUCUS (35%)
IA- D seat- ??? vs. HARKIN (30%)
NJ- D seat- ??? vs. LAUTENBERG (20%) don’t waste money in NJ!
^^^^^^^^^^^^ We need 11 of these 15 seats to control the Senate 51-49 ^^^^^^^^^^^^
Our best chances to pickup seats: SD, LA, AR
Our toughest seats to defend: NH, CO, OR, MN
It is going to be a very difficult uphill battle to retake the Senate in 2008.
Missouri was a real bummer too. Good thing TN held on.
John Warner (RINO-VA) has said he is not retiring. If control of the Senate came down to the VA seat and mine were THE deciding vote, I still couldn’t bring myself to vote for John Warner.
It’ll be interesting if Mark Warner (D) former governor of enormous popularity were to challenge him(not that I’d vote for him, either). He may be nabbed yet for the Dems’ VP nomination, tho, to put a popular southern D on the ticket. He originally entered the presidential fray and almost immediately pulled out. Has a personal fortune to invest, should he go that way, and could carry VA’s electoral votes.
It's got that American Idol feel to it. (not)
LOL, we have a better chance of getting rid of 'The Great Compromise,' better known as the Senate as a whole and modifying the Constitution than MI voters do dumping Levin and throwing away this broken part.
Levin, in a word, is evil.
MA actually has a new candidate, speak to Bocopar, he is the oracle.
Jeanne Shaheen in NH is so dumb that my seventh grader could beat her.. but don;t rule her out..NH is full of Massholes fleeing taxes. They are (the Massholes that is) too stupid to realize that they are re-creating Mass-hole-dom by voting as is “born Democrat”.
Poor NH. That’s why they call us “MassHoles”!!
Here’s my amateur opinion:
TN (Alexander), SC (Graham), NC (Dole) are SAFE. ME (Collins) is a very likely hold. Depending on who runs against Coleman (MN) I think he has better than 50% chance against Franken and at best a 50% chance against a standard liberal Dem candidate. OR (Smith) is probably 50% best case. Probably right about MT - we likely have a 1 in 3 chance of picking it up. VA is vulnerable if Warner retires or in a Warner vs. Warner contest. SD may backfire if the “health card” is played. Graham will not lose the SC primary. LA may be the best hope for a pick-up. NJ: Kean Jr. likely has a better chance at governor.
Cornyn (TX) is not a given either.
His own staff is somewhat freaked right now. And that is the staff in the regional offices where they actually hear from the people. Some well known and very accurate consultants are pointing to some problems as well.
Looks like the guy who funded all the dem candidates in Bexar County (San Antonio) BY HIMSELF...may put in against him. This guy has a track record of playing hard ball.
He has been known to send people out and break the law by stealing things from staffers’ trash at their homes. He employed this trick when he stepped in to get Sanchez a boost when he ran against Perry. Typical South Texas Lawyer.
How about Curt Schilling vs. Kerry?
I would like to see three very elderly retire before some young whipper snapper knocks them out. That is Stevens, Dominici, and Warner.
—How about Curt Schilling vs. Kerry?—
Or LeKerry’s favorite player, ‘Manny Ortez’.
Of course I can’t remember the source, but it rang kinda plausable for Michigan. Karl Lenin will run for the ‘08 reelection, then decide close to the end of Clueless Jenny’s term as governor in ‘10 that he no longer wants to be in the Senate due to age, etc. Clueless appoints herself to the seat, her husband elitist Dan then runs for the governor slot in ‘10. Elitest Dan Mulhern is the real brains, or lack thereof, in the current Clueless administration. The adoring Michigan kool aid drinkers elect him governor, and subsequently her in ‘14 to the senate seat in her own right. That is, if Clueless doesn’t got a spot as some secretariat (commerce?) in the Clinton Administration. Of course, the Michigan GOP is doing absolutely nothing in the meantime to derail any such plans, or any plans by any democrat for that matter. The head of the Michigan GOP, Saul Anuzis does have time to attack Ann Coulter for calling out limp wrist Edwards however.
Good job, Rob. Thanks for the ping. I look forward to updates in the months to come. BTW, I think Cornyn,(R-TX) is safe.
Michigan is a tough spot to get a conservative elected. I can’t explain it except for 1. Detroit and 2. unions 3. the incorrect media depiction of conservatives as uncaring about JoeSixpack worker.
They seem to think that the Dems have their best interests at heart even though their prescriptions are what have brought about the stagnant economy in Michigan.
Like everywhere else, the conservatives need a candidate who can express his ideals plainly to the people and go around the media filter. Without pandering to the left.
I hope Texas is safe, I’d hate to take him off the list. Immigration Reform is likely the big issue that could change Texas.
What’s this guy’s name? Bonilla’s lost was a well orchestrated fluke - Cyros Rodriguez is a one termer.
I think we're looking at a 44-56 Senate for 2009-2011, at least.
The Senate in 2008 will be like the Senate in 2002, a real knock down drag out fight for control.
With Guiliani, the NJ seat comes into play. In a normal year, Kean would have won in 2006, and with Guiliani carrying the state, Kean will win in 2008.
An early indicator would be candidate recruitment. This will start, this year, in LA, where a win in the Governor’s race will encourage the GOP for next year’s Senate race there and elsewhere.
The next steps will be: AR, MT and SD, where the obvious candidates need to step up to the plate. In 2006, some of the obvious candidates stayed on the sidelines knowing how tough that year was going to be for us.
With a resumption of vigorous economic growth, the start of troop withdrawals from Iraq as we turn that country’s future over to the people of it, with Guiliani at the top of the ticket, and a complementary running mate such as Pawlenty or Thompson, and with strong candidates for the Senate seats that are in play, we’re talking of a return not only of Republican control, but a resumption of the Republican agenda that has gotten sidetracked during the past several years.
What we cannot have is a non-fighter at the top of the ticket. Whoever is there must, like RUDY HAS BEEN DOING, continually attack Dems and not Bush and not other Republicans. If the fire is aimed at the Dems, it will set ablaze the grassroots and many of these seats are capable of being taken. If the top of the ticket is lackluster, regardless of his "issues," it's over.
Disagree on Rudy. I like Fred, but until he actually enters the race, Rudy is doing fine.
I think Rudy is too divisive to win, and his positions on the issues are too liberal to gain a strong following in the base.
I read an article a while back that explained the Rudy phenomonon like this:
After 9-11 Rudy and Bush 43 both received huge boosts to their popularity, into the 90%+ range. Bush has had to take actions in the real world that have caused his numbers to drop steadily, whereas Rudy has been able to maintain a lot of his goodwill by not having to actually DO anything.
As Rudy gets put on the spot, and they ask him where he agrees with unpopular Bush policies and actions, and his numbers will drop among those who like him because of 9-11. Educate the base that he is not committed to the 2nd Amendment, and that he is pro-choice, and his decisions on judges are going to be questioned.
Especially since the next President is going to likely have a hostile Dem Senate, it is going to be almost impossible to get a Constitutionalist seated in the SCOTUS. This is likely to be a problem at least until the 2010 Midterms.
I do NOT have a good feeling about our chances for Conservative replacements for the next two SCOTUS vacancies that are likely in the next four years (Stevens, Ginsberg).
I think we’re looking at a 44-56 Senate for 2009-2011, at least.
That is really depressing because they could have 60 veto vote with getting four RINOs to join them. That might take some work for them but it could happen. If that happens we might as well leave America. lol.
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