Disagree on Rudy. I like Fred, but until he actually enters the race, Rudy is doing fine.
I think Rudy is too divisive to win, and his positions on the issues are too liberal to gain a strong following in the base.
I read an article a while back that explained the Rudy phenomonon like this:
After 9-11 Rudy and Bush 43 both received huge boosts to their popularity, into the 90%+ range. Bush has had to take actions in the real world that have caused his numbers to drop steadily, whereas Rudy has been able to maintain a lot of his goodwill by not having to actually DO anything.
As Rudy gets put on the spot, and they ask him where he agrees with unpopular Bush policies and actions, and his numbers will drop among those who like him because of 9-11. Educate the base that he is not committed to the 2nd Amendment, and that he is pro-choice, and his decisions on judges are going to be questioned.
Especially since the next President is going to likely have a hostile Dem Senate, it is going to be almost impossible to get a Constitutionalist seated in the SCOTUS. This is likely to be a problem at least until the 2010 Midterms.
I do NOT have a good feeling about our chances for Conservative replacements for the next two SCOTUS vacancies that are likely in the next four years (Stevens, Ginsberg).