I wholeheartedly disagree about the NY Senate race in 2000. Rudy would have mopped the floor with Hillary. He would have eaten into her base in the city and cleaned her clock upstate.
Lazio ran about the worst campaign I've ever seen and still kept it relatively close until the end.
Lazio got the sidecurl mafia/conservative Democrat vote in NYC anyway, outpolling Bush among these constituency. Upstate has bled population like a hemophiliac, and is not a significant factor in elections anymore.