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Straw Polls: What They Are, What They're Not
The Hotline ^ | 4/23/07

Posted on 04/23/2007 9:33:20 PM PDT by Valin

Salon's Republican chronicler, Michael Scherer, dug in to several South Carolina county Republican conventions, and concluded, in an article about dirty politicking in the state, that, yes, Gov. Mitt Romney's South Carolina field operation is probably paying for delegates to state conventions in the hope that said generosity (and a healthy dollop of Mitt Love, Mitt appearances, and Mitt mailings, ) would help Romney win the convention straw polls.

Scherer was unable to convince Romney aides to admit the obvious -- of course they're paying -- and in doing so, seems to have trapped a Romney organizer in a bit of a verbal bind.

In the past, Romney aides, speaking on background, have acknowledged to the Hotline that they've engineered the purchase of tickets for delegates. Proudly, even. Romney's South Carolina strategy is predicated in part upon the positive press that straw poll wins generate, and the social pressure that those wins create among Republicans in targeted counties. No one forces anyone to vote for Romney.

Straw poll victories show, at a minimum, that Romney's SC team is capable of organizing. That's an important ingredient for victory. At a maximum, they demonstrate that a wide sample of Republican activists are comfortable with Romney.

In Iowa, the biggest event of the year requires candidates to pay for delegates to attend, to pick up their transportation costs to Ames, and to bribe them with food, drink and merriment.

The straw poll victories do not demonstrate grassroots support, if grassroots is defined as "natural," or endemic to a certain population of Republicans. One cannot artificially produce a straw poll victory and then claim that one's popularity is spreading like a funny joke. It's kind of like a movie studio paying for theatre-goers to show up at a new movie, however thumbs-uppy that new movie might be.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: fred; fredstateamerica; fredthompson; mittromney; romney; strawpoll
Click on Source for links
1 posted on 04/23/2007 9:33:24 PM PDT by Valin
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To: Valin

Northeastern liberal; tries to “buy” the nomination..pathetic!


2 posted on 04/23/2007 9:41:13 PM PDT by JSDude1 (www.pence08.com.)
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To: JSDude1

Liberal? No. not perfect but.....

http://www.ontheissues.org/Mitt_Romney.htm

Mitt Romney on Abortion
Click here for 8 full quotes on Abortion OR other candidates on Abortion OR background on Abortion.
Now firmly pro-life, despite 2002 tolerance for abortion. (Dec 2006)
Opposes Roe v Wade, but won’t tamper with abortion laws. (Dec 2006)
Anti-abortion views have “evolved & deepened” while governor. (Jul 2005)
Vetoed emergency contraception for rape victims. (Jul 2005)
Vetoed stem cell research bill. (May 2005)
Endorsed legalization of RU-486. (Mar 2002)
Personally against abortion, but pro-choice as governor. (Mar 2002)
For safe, legal abortion since relative’s death from illegal. (Oct 1994)

Mitt Romney on Budget & Economy
Click here for 2 full quotes on Budget & Economy OR other candidates on Budget & Economy OR background on Budget & Economy.
Balance state budget by removing waste and folderol. (Mar 2002)
Will cut deficit and help Americans save. (Oct 1994)

Mitt Romney on Crime
Click here for 6 full quotes on Crime OR other candidates on Crime OR background on Crime.
Reform sentencing process; appeal too-lenient sentences. (Sep 2002)
Supports death penalty in heinous murders. (Sep 2002)
Favored mandatory sentencing and three strikes. (Mar 2002)
Safe streets will be a campaign theme. (Mar 2002)
Will bring new businesses to urban areas. (Nov 1994)
Supports death penalty and “three strikes” sentencing. (Oct 1994)

Mitt Romney on Free Trade
Click here for the full quote on Free Trade OR other candidates on Free Trade OR background on Free Trade.
Emergence of Asia is an opportunity for trade and commerce. (Dec 2006)

Mitt Romney on Government Reform
Click here for the full quote on Government Reform OR other candidates on Government Reform OR background on Government Reform.
Balanced budget amendment and line-item veto. (Mar 2002)

Mitt Romney on Gun Control
Click here for the full quote on Gun Control OR other candidates on Gun Control OR background on Gun Control.
Will support assault weapons bill and Brady Bill. (Aug 1994)

(Click on link for more)


3 posted on 04/23/2007 9:51:50 PM PDT by Valin (History takes time. It is not an instant thing.)
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To: JSDude1

Meanwhile, Fred Thompson wins a CA straw poll with NO campaigning.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1822196/posts


4 posted on 04/23/2007 9:53:03 PM PDT by Politicalmom (Better a democrat with an energized opposition than a leftist “Republican” with no opposition.)
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To: Politicalmom

And when is he going to actually get in the race? Until he does....yawn


5 posted on 04/23/2007 10:05:25 PM PDT by Valin (History takes time. It is not an instant thing.)
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To: Valin

He can not enter the race right now, he has commitments, which he WILL honor.

Due to the Equal Time rule, his entering now would damage Law and Order.


6 posted on 04/23/2007 10:09:30 PM PDT by Politicalmom (Better a democrat with an energized opposition than a leftist “Republican” with no opposition.)
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To: Politicalmom

Excuses . He better not wait too long . The money and donors will be tapped and obligated by then .


7 posted on 04/23/2007 10:16:00 PM PDT by Neu Pragmatist (Is Romney the next Reagan ? .....Perhaps ....)
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To: Neu Pragmatist; Politicalmom

Exactly.
I hope he does get in. The more the merrier says I.


8 posted on 04/23/2007 10:21:50 PM PDT by Valin (History takes time. It is not an instant thing.)
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To: Neu Pragmatist

It is not an excuse. Law and Order would have to pull the last shows of the season.


9 posted on 04/23/2007 10:23:40 PM PDT by Politicalmom (Better a democrat with an energized opposition than a leftist “Republican” with no opposition.)
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To: Politicalmom

Fred can do what he wants , this is a stalling tactic . I say get in if you’re going to get in, and let’s get this thing going .


10 posted on 04/23/2007 10:25:04 PM PDT by Neu Pragmatist (Is Romney the next Reagan ? .....Perhaps ....)
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To: Politicalmom

>>It is not an excuse. Law and Order would have to pull the last shows of the season.<<

Excuse me, America! I have a TV show to film! ;)


11 posted on 04/23/2007 11:47:01 PM PDT by CheyennePress
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To: CheyennePress
Excuse me, America! I have a TV show to film! ;)

Well, two things to remember:

  1. Thompson likely wasn't planning to run at all, until he saw the overall dissatisfaction of the voters with the potential candidates and received a surprisingly positive response to a comment that he would think about entering the race.

  2. Even if he was planning a run earlier than that, this "primary season" started much, much earlier than any other is history, and his outside commitments would have been made back in the summer or fall of 2006.

12 posted on 04/24/2007 4:35:31 AM PDT by kevkrom (A vote for Guiliani is a vote to kill conservatism.)
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To: Valin
It's clear that all "straw polls" are not created equal. The ones cited in the article don't seem all that reliable, because the amount of manipulation that can be done by the campaigns.

On the other hand, certain other straw polls likely mean more. When a major donator or activist group holds a straw poll of its own members, that gives a better impression of what the grassroots are thinking.

In any case, these types of numbers are, at best, just early snapshots into the minds of the folks involved. There's a long way to go until the primaries yet...

13 posted on 04/24/2007 4:44:22 AM PDT by kevkrom (A vote for Guiliani is a vote to kill conservatism.)
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To: kevkrom

In any case, these types of numbers are, at best, just early snapshots into the minds of the folks involved

Good point. I wonder just how many Americans have ever heard of much less know who..say Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney is. They’ve heard Rudy’s name and McCain’s but after that....


14 posted on 04/24/2007 5:43:18 AM PDT by Valin (History takes time. It is not an instant thing.)
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