Posted on 04/18/2007 12:06:59 PM PDT by Islander7
April 18, 2007 — The debate over whether global warming affects hurricanes may be running into some unexpected turbulence. Many researchers believe warming is causing the storms to get stronger, while others aren't so sure. Now, a new study raises the possibility that global warming might even make it harder for hurricanes to form.
The findings, by Gabriel A. Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Brian J. Soden of the University of Miami, are reported in Wednesday's issue of Geophysical Research Letters.
Vecchi and Soden used 18 complex computer climate models to anticipate the effects of warming in the years 2001-2020 and 2018-2100.
Included in the results were an increase in vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans.
Vertical wind shear is a difference in wind speed or direction at different altitudes. When a hurricane encounters vertical wind shear the hurricane can weaken when the heat of rising air dissipates over a larger area.
On the other hand, warm water provides the energy that drives hurricanes, so warmer conditions should make the storms stronger.
"We don't know whether the change in shear will cancel out the increased potential from warming oceans, but the shear increase would tend to make the Atlantic and East Pacific less favorable to hurricanes," said Vecchi, of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J.
"Which one of the two — warming oceans or increasing shear — will be the dominant factor? Will they cancel out? We and others are currently exploring those very questions, and we hope to have a better grasp on that answer in the near future," Vecchi said.
"What we can say is that the magnitude of the shear change is large enough that it cannot be ignored," he added.
(Excerpt) Read more at dsc.discovery.com ...
We cannot know how powerful were hurricanes of 5,000 years ago as there were no witnesses. If we didn’t build in known hurricane areas, it really wouldn’t matter how powerful they are.
Great science - on the one hand, if there are many hurricanes, they say see we told you so- global warming causes hurricanes. If there are fewer hurricanes, they say see, we told you so- global warming causes excessive wind shearing that prevents hurricanes. They can’t lose, it’s the old heads I win tails you lose argument.
But....but....I thought the debate was over.
Or maybe they're just trying to buy some cover for what didn't happen in the 2006 hurricane season.
I'm guessing this debate will extend through the 2007 hurricane season and not be "settled" until afterward. That way they can have it both ways.
It wasn’t until the age of satellites, starting 25 years ago or so, that we even knew hurricanes were around. Several hurricanes struck when they were not known before hand. The 1900 great Galveston Hurricane which killed about 6,000 and the later the 1935 Keys Labor Day hurricane which killed over 2,000.
So what do we really know about hurricanes? Accurately — Not much really.
Something to consider when counting hurricanes and tropical storms and comparing to years past — In past years, without satellite coverage, most storms out in the open oceans were not known and not accurately recorded. So even the numbers of hurricanes, and tropical storms, it’s bogus as is the strengths.
This is speculation that one side is trying to sell as gospel.
Might explain the weak 2006 Hurricane season in the Atlantic, but it does not explain this China Endures Strongest Typhoon in 50 Years
or this Super Typhoon Cimaron the most powerful to strike the island chain since 1998.
or this Super Typhoon Ioke
So, how do the Climate models handle a weak Atlantic with a strong Pacific ?
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