FRED'S GREATEST ROLE?: an alternative theory of Senator Thompson's not-yet candidacy

4.11.07 | Mia T

[Mia T]

FRED'S GREATEST ROLE?
an alternative theory of Senator Thompson's not-yet candidacy

 

by Mia T, 4.11.07

 

The absurdity of flipping the premise of reality TV to make a stage-and-screen president America's president appears to be lost on a generation of social conservatives inured to the virtual surreality ¹ of clintonian politics and terrified by the prospect a President Giuliani.

To add to the real-virtual complexity, what if Thompson is not planning to jump in at all? What if this is just another role? What if Fred is playing Perot for his friend, John McCain, (who, in this analogy is clinton to Rudy's Bush 41)?

That is, what if Thompson's sole purpose is to give McCain the nomination by skimming off just enough conservatives from Rudy? (NB: gross is net, i.e., McCain has no conservative support to lose.)

The latest Gallup numbers suggest that Thompson's support is coming almost exclusively from Rudy. (See graph.)

This theory would explain Fred's unwillingness to declare.

Of course, if the plan doesn't work, then Fred may jump off the stage and into the race for real.

 

Also see:
EARTH TO LAMAR: FRED THOMPSON LOOKING THE PART AIN'T ENOUGH (41-second video FLUB)

[Mia T]

Thinking more about your theory....
The ‘stalking horse’ and the ‘Perot’ effect are not mutually exclusive. In its zeal to help Rudy, the GOP may unwittingly be helping McCain.

[Thermalseeker]

I wonder why he would announce that if he wasn’t planning on running?

Clearing the air and putting the issue out in the open in preparation for announcing a run for POTUS would be my best guess.......

[McGavin999]

Still, if it is in remission, then he's pretty much in the same boat as Guiliani and McCain as cancer survivors.

No, he's not, trust me I know. Lymphoma is nasty, nasty stuff. You can get by for a long time, but when it finally breaks loose it is horrid, painful and quick.

[Mia T]

No. He may be acting in what he believes to be the national interest. (I suspect Fred undstands that his experience playing a president on stage is not especially applicable to being the president for real.)

[Mia T]

understands

[Mia T]

Are you saying no conservatives support Rudy?

[Rodney King]

Are you saying no conservatives support Rudy?

No, but I am challenging the overall view that Rudy is the conservative candidate vs. McCain.

[Mia T]

Was indolent lymphoma? As I understand it, indolent lymphoma can eventually ‘transform’ to the more aggressive type.

[Mia T]

I never said that.

[Rodney King]

I never said that.

You implied it. If Thompson is to steal conservatives from Rudy to help McCain, then it is implied.

[kalee]

I said it last night at the County GOP meeting. I will NOT support Guiliani.

[#1CTYankee]

"The fear of Fred is strong with this one."

Good one.

[jla]

You sure do attract a lot of attention!

[McGavin999]

All lymphoma is nasty, but with indolent lymphoma when it goes into remission you live a pretty normal life, when it come out again, the treatment must change, and the remission is shorter. After that, each remission is shorter and shorter until finally it roars forth in it’s most vicious form. I hate cancer, and I hate lymphoma most of all.

[Valin]

Rumor has it that he announce on may 5th. We’ll see.

[areafiftyone]

Maybe. I heard August yesterday. But there have been so many dates floating around. I’m sure it will be soon.

[Steel Wolf]

I think, after 2006, party bigwigs figure no social conservative can win in 08. So Thompson is keeping the right at bay. Either McCain or Giuliani could benefit from this. In the end, I think Thompson is running for Veep, or AG or SCOTUS. By floating a trial balloon and not running, he will have helped whomever turns out to be the nominee.

Fred is definitely acting as a counterweight against any other staunch conservative entering the race or gaining traction. His lack of ambition notwithstanding, he's having a fascinating effect on the process. The longer he stays out, the more difficult it will be for him to make up lost ground. Yet the longer he hovers on the sidelines, the more damage he does to the guys swamped in the low teens. That leaves Rudy, and his friend John McCain.

Fred's semi-presence does help McCain, in a sense, but there's no way for him to destroy McCain's enemies without doing the same damage to McCain. Now, he could undo that damage by getting on board with McCain as his Veep. A McCain/Thompson ticket (which is quite possible, given their friendship) would scramble the numbers and have everyone recalibrating.

Ultimately, if Fred wrecks all of the other contenders, it will hand the nomination to Rudy. That is clear enough, and he could easily parlay that ability into a VP slot. If Fred wrecks most of the others, and jumps on board with McCain, it would be a tough fight against Rudy, but it's not impossible to beat him. McCain may be broadly hated, but there's a lot of love for Fred out there, and it may be enough to win the nomination.

Fred's certainly a potent factor in the race, but it seems to be as a kingmaker, not as the king. I wonder who he's actually angling to work for.

[Mia T]

Aren’t some conservatives supporting Rudy in spite of the fact that some of his social positions are liberal?