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To: AaronInCarolina
You know enough about trendlines to know that the end of a trendline in a graph is highly unreliable (particularly if the smoothing algorithm is 5-10 years or higher) because we don't know what future graph points may mitigate the trendline at the end. Its kind of like a water hose flopping all over the place if the end of the hose isn't retrained. It is highly volatile until the future data locks it down.

My point is that the skeptical argument "it hasn't warmed since 1998" is predicated on the high temperature of 1998, which GISS notes (the link I provided) was 0.2 C degrees above the trendline. The trend from 1990 to 2007 is nearly uniformly up. If 1998 wasn't there to skew everything, it would be dead obvious to anyone.

From Goddard Institute of Space Studies:

The point above 0.6 is for 2005.

198 posted on 04/11/2007 11:05:53 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator
Also from the GISS:



When the spikes due to El Nino are removed, it is a clear leveling off.
204 posted on 04/11/2007 11:24:09 AM PDT by AaronInCarolina
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