For some idiotic reason deluded minds like cogitator don’t want to believe that when the sun has increased in output by 0.3% over the last 200 years or so that it is NO surprise that the earth has warmed by about 0.3% during that same period of time.
More and more evidence of the historical influence of the sun won’t sway them because, I guess, they believe the output of the sun is nearly constant.
I believe, though, that the sun has varied in the past by enough to account for all the climate change Earth has experienced... including the last century. The CO2 rise is quite likely the result, not the cause, of the temperature rise - at least ice core data suggests that strongly since it lags the temperature by about a millenium.
The 80s-90s temp rise is more than the sun’s but the sun took a sharp temp rise from 1900 or so until about 1950 and been relatively constant since then. There may simply be a lag of several decades in the Earth’s temperature in response to the Sun’s radiation.
The next two solar cycles have been predicted by scientists now, and it seems the coming one may be high temp, the next one (15+ years from now) may be the lowest of the last 100 years. After that, who knows, but I am one who is hoping that it stays on the warmer side of the last 100yrs rather than sliding back to the Middle Ages type of event, or an even lower level of activity. Ice Ages begin that way, and we certainly don’t want to see global temperature 8C colder.
In actuality, a .3% rise in 200 years IS fairly constant. However, nearly constant is not the same as constant, and .3% can be significant.
All in all, I know that there is nothing I, or anybody else can do to change what is going to happen. So I will continue to live my life as I see fit, not worried about my “carbon footprint” and maybe slather on some more sunscreen.
For some idiotic reason, some people don't realize I'm aware of the Maunder Minimum. Some of the early 20th century warming is also attributable to increasing solar output, maybe the last "gasp" of recovery from the Maunder Minimum.
The warming since the 1970s -- now approaching 0.8 C -- cannot be explained by any correlation with any solar output/solar variability parameter.
The CO2 rise is quite likely the result, not the cause, of the temperature rise - at least ice core data suggests that strongly since it lags the temperature by about a millenium.
Totally and utterly wrong, particularly with regard to the modern era. See point #5 in my profile. With respect to the modern era, the temperature increase is not nearly enough to significantly affect air-sea CO2 fluxes -- and there are multiple ways of establishing that the atmospheric increase is due to fossil fuel combustion. You may be a physicist but you're clearly not a geochemist.
There may simply be a lag of several decades in the Earth’s temperature in response to the Sun’s radiation.
Or, more likely (as the climate scientists indicate), it's due to the lag of climate sensitivity in response to additional CO2 radiative forcing and ocean thermal inertia.