Posted on 04/08/2007 5:24:27 AM PDT by Tom D.
Iran's Bluff Humbles Britain
April 8, 2007
BY MARK STEYN Sun-Times Columnist
Watching Tottenham Hotspur fans taking on the Spanish constabulary at a European soccer match the other night, I found myself idly speculating on what might have happened had those Iranian kidnappers made the mistake of seizing 15 hard-boiled football yobs who hadn't got the Blair memo about not escalating the situation.
Instead, as we know, the mullahs were fortunate enough to take hostage 15 Royal Navy sailors and Royal Marines. Which were which was hard to say upon their release. The Queen's Navee had been demobbed. The token gal was dressed up as an Islamic woman and the 14 men had been kitted out in Ahmadinejad leisurewear. Which is not just a ghastly fashion faux pas but a breach of the increasingly one-way Geneva Conventions. But they smiled and they waved. Wave, Britannia! Britannia, waive the rules!
The Associated Press reported the story as follows: ''Analysis: Hope For More Iran Compromises.''
Well, if by ''compromise'' you mean Tehran didn't put them up for a show trial and behead them, you might have a point. With this encouraging development, we might persuade them to wipe only half of Israel off the map, or even nuke some sparsely occupied corner of the Yukon instead. With the momentum of this "compromise" driving events, all manner of diplomatic triumphs are possible.
Tony Blair was at pains to point out that the hostages were released ''without any deal, without any negotiation, without any side agreement of any nature.'' But he's missing (or artfully sidestepping) the point: Tehran didn't want a deal. It wanted the humbling of the Great Satan's principal ally. And it got it. Very easily. And it paid no price for it. And it has tested in useful ways the empty pretensions of the U.N., the EU and also NATO, whose second largest fleet is now a laughingstock in a part of the world where it helps to be taken seriously.
I'm always bemused by the correspondence I get from readers arguing that there's more going on than meets the eye -- that the British and Americans wanted to keep things cool this last week because it's a massive head fake to distract attention from all kinds of covert activities already under way to overthrow Ahmadinejad, and Assad, and a bunch of other fellows. Even if it were true (which it's not) that Valerie Plame's crack commando units are rappelling down the walls of every presidential palace from Sudan to North Korea, in a media age what matters is not only what's going on behind the scenes but the scenes themselves. And scenes of British servicemen fawning on Ahmadinejad along with scenes of a headscarved Nancy Pelosi doing the same to Bashir Assad project a consistent message.
Even if there is more going on than meets the eye, what meets the eye is so profoundly damaging to the credibility of great nations that no amount of lethal special ops could compensate for it. Power is only as great as the perception of power. The Iranians understand that they can't beat America or Britain in tank battles or air strikes so they choose other battlefields on which to hit them. That's why the behavior of the captives gives great cause for concern: There's no point training guys to be tough fighting men of the Royal Marines when you're in a bloody little scrap in Sierra Leone (as they were a couple of years ago) if you allow them to crumple on TV in front of the entire world.
So in 2007 the men of the Royal Navy can be kidnapped and "the strong arm of England" (in Lord Palmerston's phrase) goes all limp-wristed and threatens to go to the U.N. and talk about drafting a Security Council resolution. Backstage, meanwhile, deals are done: An Iranian "diplomat" (a k a Mister Terror Kingpin) suddenly resurfaces in Tehran after having been reported in American detention, his release purely coincidental, we're told. But it's the kind of coincidence that ensures more of your men will be kidnapped and ransomed in the years ahead. And, just to remind the world who makes the rules, six more British subjects were killed in southern Iraq even at the moment of the hostages' release. The Iranians have exposed America's strongest ally as the soft underbelly of the Great Satan.
The most noticeable feature of the last two weeks has been the massive shrug by the British public. Some observers attributed this to the unpopularity of the Iraq war: Those nice mullahs wouldn't be pulling this stuff if Blair hadn't got mixed up with that crazy Texas moron. But it seems to me a more profound malaise has gripped them -- the enervating fatalism of too many people in what is still a semi-serious nation with one of the world's biggest militaries up against an insignificant basket-case. The traditional British position was deftly summed up in the chorus of an old music-hall song:
"We don't want to fight but, by jingo, if we do
We've got the ships, we've got the men, we've got the money too . . ."
Or, to modify Elvis, they weren't looking for trouble but, if you looked right in their face, they'd give you some. In theory, they still have the ships, the men and the money, but something intangible has been lost. "Jingoism" is not merely a mindless swagger but a kind of assumed national confidence of which the fleet and the sailors and the cash are merely the tangible embodiment. Take away the confidence, and the ships and men and money avail you nought. You want a diplomatic solution? Fine. But, if you believe (as Europe and half America does) in ''soft power,'' it's important to remember it depends on the world's belief that you're willing to use that power. Looking at the reaction to this incident by the United States, European Union, United Nations et al., Iran will conclude that the transnational consensus will never muster the will to constrain its nuclear ambitions.
Europeans and more and more Americans believe they can live in a world with all the benefits of global prosperity and none of the messy obligations necessary to maintain it. And so they cruise around war zones like floating NGOs. Iran called their bluff, and televised it to the world. In the end, every great power is as great as its credibility, and the only consolation after these last two weeks is that Britain doesn't have much more left to lose.
© Mark Steyn, 2007
The sun has set on the British Empire.
He's awesome.
That was pretty brutal, but mostly accurate. It is hard to accept the TV behavior of the hostages, and even harder to accept the rules of engagement.
bttt
I believe that it was Richard Nixon who said that Credibility = Power X Will. Since the relationship is multiplicative and the will is zero (or very close to it), I’ll leave it to you to figure out how much credibility the West has.
Anybody up for bringing Pelosi to trial?
This should be required reading for any Western political leader who wants to preserve our way of life.
Whats that!?? Mercenaries captured some brits to attempt to foment the tv-bots into insisting Pres. Bush invade Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea so a dim can be selected to rescue our troops??
I would like to ask, seriously, if the result would have been any different had the sailors been American.
Personally, I have been convinced for quite some time that we no longer have the stomach for a fight - and that our divided status as a nation has allowed patriotism, nationalism and jingoism to become dirty words.
Those that hate those concepts fail to understand that they are necessary if a nation or a culture is to survive - they are not based in mere rhetoric. That a LACK of patriotism or nationalism does not signify a more sophisticated, cerebral approach to life, but rather a letting down of the guard necessary to maintain the freedoms we fought so hard to achieve and maintain in past generations.
I fear this lesson will be learned the hard way. The very hard way.
If this country has the stones to convict her for treason in time of war, I'm with you.
I just don't get it either Mark.
Man-o-man did Iran make out from this incident. Their political capital SKYROCKETED from this little bit of piracy!
We have seen the American government act shamelessly though when faced with those thugs. Witness the 83 Marine Barracks bombing where instead of making Iran pay, we tucked our ass between our legs and scooted out of Lebanon.
On the other hand just recently American and Iranian forces clashed when they tried to kidnap American Fighting forces...the Iranians died. Reminds my of that F/A-18's nose Art after 9/11 "Hijack This!".
Well, we certainly had the stomach to start a fight in Iraq, probably mostly as a reaction to 9/11. However I think we've temporarily lost the stomach for another one, due to the length of time we've been there without decisive overall victory.
I don't think we've really got the combat troops available to start another war, and I don't think the UK has enough for even one war on its own.
But my opinion is that the US Navy would not have sat idly by and let its people be led into captivity like the RN did.
If it had happened I'm not sure what Bush's reaction would have been, he took the diplomatic route during the Chinese incident, but I believe he of all people understands the dangers of allowing radical Muslims to achieve victories against our troops.
This excellent Steyn column needs to be printed out, rolled into a fine tube, and rammed up Neville Blair’s bottom.
The Iranians have exposed America's strongest ally as the soft underbelly of the Great Satan.
But it seems to me a more profound malaise has gripped them -- the enervating fatalism of too many people in what is still a semi-serious nation with one of the world's biggest militaries up against an insignificant basket case.
Take away the confidence, and the ships and men and money avail you nought.
In the end, every great power is as great as its credibility,
Enervating fatalism is what happens to your domestic target audience when you fail to conduct strategic counter propaganda.
One of his finest, I might add. :-)
LONG AGO!
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