Posted on 04/06/2007 8:53:59 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
BRUSSELS, Belgium - As the world gets hotter by degrees, millions of poor people will suffer from hunger, thirst, floods and disease unless drastic action is taken, scientists and diplomats warned Friday in their bleakest report ever on global warming.
All regions of the world will change, with the risk that nearly a third of the Earth's species will vanish if global temperatures rise just 3.6 degrees above the average temperature in the 1980s-90s, the new climate report says. Areas that now have too little rain will become drier.
Yet that grim and still preventable future is a toned-down prediction, a compromise brokered in a fierce, around-the-clock debate among scientists and bureaucrats. Officials from some governments, including China and Saudi Arabia, managed to win some weakened wording.
Even so, the final report "will send a very, very clear signal" to governments, said Yvo de Boer, the top climate official for the United Nations, which in 1988 created the authoritative climate change panel that issued the starkly worded document.
And while some scientists were angered at losing some ground, many praised the report as the strongest warning ever that nations must cut back on greenhouse gas emissions.
The report is the second of four coming this year from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations network of 2,000 scientists. The new document tries to explain how global warming is changing life on Earth; the panel's report in February focused on the cause of global warming and said scientists are highly confident most of it is due to human activity.
All four reports must be unanimously approved by the 120-plus governments that participate, and all changes must be approved by the scientists.
That edict made for a deadline-busting contentious final editing session that was closed to the public. However, The Associated Press witnessed the hectic final 3 1/2 hours of objections and conflict.
At one point, Chinese and Saudi Arabian delegates tried to reduce the scientific confidence level about already noticeable effects of global warming. They lower the confidence level from 90 percent to 80 percent. Scientists objected, and one lead author from the United States, NASA's Cynthia Rosenzweig, left the building after filing an official protest.
"There is a discernible human influence on these changes" that are already occurring through flooding, heat waves, hurricanes and threats to species, she said.
Under a U.S.-proposed compromise, the final report deleted any mention of the level of confidence about global warming's current effects. And that may have saved the day, according to some scientists who said the report had appeared doomed over that issue.
There were other disputes where scientists lost out:
_Instead of saying "hundreds of millions" would be vulnerable to flooding under certain scenarios, the final document says "many millions."
_Instead of suggesting up to 120 million people are at risk of hunger because of global warming, the revised report refers to negative effects on subsidence farmers and fishers.
Often it was the U.S. delegation who stood with scientists and helped reach compromise, said Stanford University scientist Stephen Schneider, a frequent critic of the Bush administration's global warming policies.
British scientist Neil Adger said he and others were disappointed that government officials deleted parts of a chart that highlights the devastating effects of climate change with every rise of 1.8 degrees in temperature.
Some scientists bitterly vowed never to take part in the process again.
Still, Adger and other scientists and even environmental groups hailed the final report as the strongest ever.
"This is a glimpse into an apocalyptic future," the Greenpeace environmental group said of the final report.
The tone of the report is urgent, noting those who can afford the least get hit the most by global warming.
"Don't be poor in a hot country, don't live in hurricane alley, watch out about being on the coasts or in the Arctic, and it's a bad idea to be on high mountains with glaciers melting," said Schneider, the Stanford scientist who was one of the study author's.
Africa by 2020 is looking at an additional 75 million to 250 million people going thirsty because of climate change, the report said. Deadly diarrheal diseases associated with floods and droughts will increase in Asia because of global warming, the report said.
The first few degrees increase in global temperature will actually raise global food supply, but then it will plummet, according to the report.
"The poorest of the poor in the world — and this includes poor people in prosperous societies — are going to be the worst hit," said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "People who are poor are least able to adapt to climate change."
But even rich countries, such as the United States say that the report tells them what to watch for.
James Connaughton, the head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality noted that food production in North America would rise initially, but so will increased coastal flooding.
The head of the U.S. delegation, White House associate science adviser Sharon Hays, said a key message she's taking home to Washington is "that these projected impacts are expected to get more pronounced at higher temperatures," she said in a conference call from Brussels. "Not all projected impacts are negative."
Schneider said a main message isn't just what will happen, but what already has started: melting glaciers, stronger hurricanes, deadlier heat waves, and disappearing or moving species.
It all can be traced directly to greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, according to the report.
Martin Parry, who conducted the tough closed-door negotiations, said that with 29,000 sets of data from every continent include Antarctica, the report firmly and finally established "a man-made climate signal coming through on plants, water and ice."
"For the first time, we are not just arm-waving with models," he said.
But many of the worst effects aren't locked into the future, the report said in its final pages. People can build better structures, adapt to future warming threats and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, scientists said.
"There are things that can be done now, but it's much better if it can be done now rather than later," said David Karoly of the University of Oklahoma, one of the report authors.
"We can fix this," Schneider said.
___
AP Correspondent Arthur Max contributed to this report.
Exactly. All their protestations of calamity miss this salient point. They perceive an increase in temperature only, without considering the resultant increase in evaporation.
Desertification grows during an ice age. Deserts shrink in a warming global climate.
Instead of species dying off, almost all will see a growth opportunity in a milder climate. Consider the rich fauna and biota of Florida as opposed to northern Minnesota or North Dakota.
The African continent has had special problems climatically, and it always will. We as a species should have moved out of there long ago.
We are looking at rain and sleet here in central TEXAS today! It’s 34 degrees outside. In April!
Yep- we’re all going to die- just as everyone all died during the 1700 global warming ‘crisis’ when greenland was so warm that they were growing grapes for wine, and in which everyone and every living thing perished. Yuppers- we’re all doomed.
I see the U.N is attempting to get their greedy little fingers into the ‘global warming cash cow’ and will be imposing heavy fines on ‘non-compliant’ countries (ie: the U.S- but never a muslim country) that ‘contribute to global warming’.
What does the bible say? In the last days men will prefere a lie over the truth? Yet another prophesy being fulfilled.
[when they get this power for ‘drastic action’ they’ll keep stringing everyone along by saying, “yes the world is still here because we took action, but unless we take even more drastic action we’re doomed’]
Bingo- NO matter what happens, it will always be ‘man’s fault’ and it will always be the liberal saviors who have worked so dilligently to reverse the evils that the uncaring GOP’ers have caused out of their greed and apathy toward the godess called mother nature. I’ve said it before- no matter which way the climate changes- cold or hot, it’s always going to be blamed on us and we’re goign to be accused regardless of what happens- accused and bilked of trillions upon trillions of dollars.
[If all the polar bears die, that just means more baby seals for us to club]
Amen- Nothing warms the heart like a good seal clubbing outing. Besides, we’re doing our part by helping out the evil ‘man made global warming’ by reducing seal populations as it’s a little known fact that seal farts have a higher concentration of ozone depleting gases than many animals do due to their rich diet of seal milk which is high in fat and contributes to gassy intestines.
Do your part to save ‘mother earth’- club a seal.,
It was 40 this morning. This is the first above freezing in the morning reading of the year. I keep my mittens handy anyway. The weather could turn and it could snow at any time.
Would Al Gore, the Warming Scam Artist, like to comment on this blistering cold here in the deep, deep South?
Dude , you’re gonna blow your image.
You’re usually so soft-spoken. :-}
This does drive me the craziest. I can understand people voting for rats/liberals because they want to vote for more share of the pie, but it is hard to understand why so many want to put the gun to their heads and blow their brains out by buying into this utter fraud.
I hear ya loud and clear.
I could quote ya some passages from the Bible that speak to why some folks are as they are today.
But then some folks might think I was just a Bible BumPer. ;-)
The problem is the left wingers who want to use the fraud of Global Warming/Global Climate Change/Ozone Hole (etc. for excuse de jour) for imposing anti-personal property laws, are all in the bureacratic ranks.
They write the government reports, they cook the global climate data. Even the weather channel is now into this fraud in the name of ratings.
The MSM silences any dissent because they see it as a power grab for them too. More government ensures they get to go to the power parties too.
Think about it--it's going to be very hard for the UN to dictate to the US unless they also dictate to China. And they don't have the balls to dictate to China.
If it actually gets warmer, there will BE more snowpack. When it was a few degrees warmer the inter-range playas in Nevada were predominantly fresh water lakes. Precipitation was higher, Bristlecone pines grew up to 1000 feet higher in altitude than now...
The dirty little secret of solar cycle driven warming is that the climate will be more stable and wetter in N. America. Greenland will have actual desireable real estate, etc...
My guess is that the Science behind this report is pseudoscience. Similar to how they try to explain how Mars warming is not due to Solar Energetic increases.
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/environment/waterworld.html
by Wm. Robert Johnston
You can get it by Googling, "If all the ice melts".
Today the Earth has 148 million sq. km of land area, of which 16 million sq. km is covered by glaciers. A sea level rise of 66 meters would flood about 13 million sq. km of land outside Antarctica. Without polar ice, Antarctica and Greenland would be ice free, although about half of Antarctica would be under water. Thus, ice-free land would be 128 million sq. km compared to 132 million sq. km today.
As a result, in terms of total habitable land area, the Earth might have more than today. The coastal areas reclaimed by the sea would be mostly offset by now habitable areas of Greenland and Antarctica. Again, remember that such climate change would take thousands of years. Over such time scales vegetation would be restored to newly ice-free regions even without human activity. Also, vast areas which are now desert and tundra would become more fit for human habitation and agriculture.
The illustrations above do not depict any changes in vegetation. In reality, local climates would be very different in ways that are currently difficult to predict. It might be that the warmer climate would lead to generally greater precipitation (this is suggested by comparison to the last ice age, when cooler temperatures caused expansion of the Sahara). Unfortunately, current models are not reliable enough to give a confident answer.
So why wouldn't people drown? Again, a change in the Earth this dramatic would take thousands of years to effect from any realistic cause. Over generations people would migrate as the coasts changed. Consider that virtually all of the settlements in the United States were established only in last 350 years. Of course, many settlements inhabited for thousands of years would have to be abandoned to the ocean--just as many would have to be abandoned if ice age conditions returned and covered vast areas with ice sheets. But people can comfortably adjust where they live over periods of decades, far shorter than the thousands of years needed for these climate changes to naturally take place. Also, that's if they occur, and we have no evidence to indicate what would happen to climate over the next few thousand years.
IV. A final comment
For those curious as to what the Earth would be like with the ice caps melted, this report has hopefully given an illustration, along with some perspective: this sort of change cannot be affected by modern human activity even given many centuries. It is sad that some youngsters think that burning of hydrocarbons could cause the ice caps to melt and drown cities; it is criminal when teachers don't correct this nonsense. And it should tell you much of environmental groups like the Sierra Club when they use such myths to further an extremist political agenda.
Miss it while you can, buddy boy. It seems we A-Zonians are determined to become just another tax-and-spend, Liberal Idiot state.
We are the fastest growing state in the country, and our highest population increase comes from Los Angeles County. Lib-Idiots escaping the destruction they have caused, only to cause the same destruction they have escaped.
Our Tucson City Council can't WAIT to dump more "Tax Increments" on us, to fuel their pie in the sky, Socialist Visions on us, to fund their mega-stadium and Rio Nuevo Project on us.
Tax and spend, tax and spend, with no proof that this is benefitting the community, for ten years. Where is our last bastion?
Maybe I should plan on moving to Idaho or Mississippi, or some place where conservatism is still ok.
I'm afraid liberal nutjobism is spreading like a disease.
What to do about it?
Truth and reality have been preempted by todays media and politics, of the scam artists, by the scam artists and for the scam artists.
My inlaws live in Prescott and Sierra Vista and they tell me they are being overrun by Californians. Now that I'm over here, I see the brainwashing that goes on through the tube every day. I'm sure the brainwashing goes with them when they leave.
Oh and I'm a girl! FRegards!
Then I must correct myself.
"Miss it while you can, buddy girl".
FRegards back at ya! :P
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