There are new rumors of what drove the early release of the hostages coming diverse sources such as Debka and Strategypage.com. Debka has always been suspect, but Strategypage.com has been more reliable and through in their analysis. They indicate that Ahmadinejad and his radical fringe lost to a more conservative Khamenei and his plans. RUMINT has it that Ahmadinejad was trying to use this to try to provoke a confrontation with the US by striking a weaker coalition partner.
Note the trend; Iranian rhetoric proceeded to an eventual crescendo threatening to try the hostages for treason. Suddenly, there is a change in plan and they are released on the prophet’s birthday with no apparent strings attached. This switch was due to Khamenei stepping in and overruling Ahmadinejad. Debka also notes that the PR effects suffered greatly this time around and it did more to hurt Tehran’s goals than help. Thus now Tehran is trying to milk the “generosity” that they have shown.
The potential for something more serious to occur in the gulf remains. If Strategypage.com is correct, this is the second set back for Ahmadinejad. As a radical believer, Ahmadinejad believes he is on a mission from god, and failure is not an option. Thus his next attempt might be more dangerous and actually trigger a shooting war with the US.
I tend to agree with that analysis more than any of the others, Godzilla, especially the part about Ahmadinjad’s next possible move. I suspect he may release some fake intel through a marginally reliable source that shows a “credible” threat requiring an immediate response. He may be hoping for a replay of the “WMD/no WMD” scenario, where we got data from folks who embellished in order to get US help taking down Saddam. In this scenario, he could possibly be standing by with data that directly refutes the trigger for an attack. He might even try to convince us that there is a storehouse of bomb parts or manufacturing equipment in what is really an orphanage or some other “innocent” location, just to increase the PR damage.
I pray that any intel we get regarding Iran in the future is verified extremely carefully.
Good to see Godzilla summaries again. :-)