I tend to agree with that analysis more than any of the others, Godzilla, especially the part about Ahmadinjad’s next possible move. I suspect he may release some fake intel through a marginally reliable source that shows a “credible” threat requiring an immediate response. He may be hoping for a replay of the “WMD/no WMD” scenario, where we got data from folks who embellished in order to get US help taking down Saddam. In this scenario, he could possibly be standing by with data that directly refutes the trigger for an attack. He might even try to convince us that there is a storehouse of bomb parts or manufacturing equipment in what is really an orphanage or some other “innocent” location, just to increase the PR damage.
I pray that any intel we get regarding Iran in the future is verified extremely carefully.
I’d take it one step further. There are other sources that indicate that Imanutjob and the radical fringe is in an increasing bitter struggle with the old guard religious leaders. He wants the Madhi to arrive, they just want to stay in power. The Madhi arrives through war, conflict will either kill the old guard, or cause enough turmoil that the internal factions wanting a more democratic rule will be able to rise up and overthrow them. Thus, to prevent further set backs, Imanutjob will have to maneuver two elements - the old guard imans as well as tweaking the US/Brit forces, so that he cannot suffer another set back and can move forward with his vision of conflict.