Angus Reid Political Tracker: Conservatives hold 17-point lead (Canada)

www.angusreidstrategies.com ^ | Friday, March 30, 2007 | Staff

[GMMAC]

Angus Reid Political Tracker:
Conservatives hold 17-point lead
Liberals plummet to 22% nationally, and 11% in Quebec;
Greens reach double digits, overtake Bloc

angusreidstrategies.com
03.30.07 Friday

[VANCOUVER – Mar. 29, 2007] – The Conservative Party has extended its advantage in Canada’s federal political scene, as the Liberal Party continues to lose support, an Angus Reid Strategies poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 39% of decided voters will cast a ballot for the governing Conservatives in the next federal election. The Liberals stand at 22%, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17%, the Green Party with 11%, and the Bloc Québécois with 10%.

In Quebec, the Tories are only three points behind the Bloc (36% to 33%), while the Grits have fallen to fourth place with 11%, just a point below the NDP (12%). In Ontario, the Conservatives hold an eight-point advantage (39% to 31%) over the Liberals.

The poll places Prime Minister Stephen Harper with a national approval rating of 40%, with his highest marks coming in Alberta (53%)—down seven points since a survey conducted in early March—and Quebec (44%).

Stéphane Dion holds poorer numbers. Only 18% of respondents believe he is doing a good job as Leader of the Opposition. In Dion's home province of Quebec, 50% of respondents disapprove of his tenure so far. The Liberal leader’s best numbers come in Atlantic Canada (25%) and Ontario (21%).

Harper also extended his lead over Dion as the preferred Prime Minister of Canada. Two-in-five (41%) respondents select the current head of government for the country’s top political job, while only 17% pick Dion. Almost a third of Canadians (32%) still choose neither leader.

Harper clearly enjoyed a significant post-budget boost in Quebec, where 35% of respondents say their opinion of the Prime Minister has improved over the past month. However, 39% of Atlantic Canadians—and a quarter of respondents in British Columbia, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan—now have a worse opinion of Harper.

Dion does not seem to be connecting with the voting public. In the whole country, 11% of respondents say their opinion of the Liberal leader has improved over the past month, while 30% now have a worse opinion of Dion.

In all, 36% of Canadians think the country is on the right track, down seven points since early March. In British Columbia, only 29% of respondents express satisfaction with Canada’s direction.

More information and tables on attached PDF.

Contact: Angus Reid, CEO
604-647-1985 or angus.reid@angus-reid.com

[GMMAC]

Note:
- formal release date is tomorrow.
- sample size is double that of polls earlier this week which showed a supposed decrease in CPC momentum.
- core data (6 pages) is incredibly positive with Dion's own numbers now in absolute free fall! (see: attached PDF)

[GMMAC]

PING!

[CFC__VRWC]

Very nice numbers, but I noticed that the Tories are still under 40 percent, though. It looks like the other leftist parties are poaching voters from the Liberals. I have to believe that Dion's whiny little tantrums are turning off a lot of Canadians.

[conservative in nyc]

That poll bodes very well for the Conservatives. I'd still wait for the next SES poll, though.

[GiveEmDubya]

Sucks for Milhouse Dion.

Look at the internals. 11% for the Liberals in Quebec!?

These are majority numbers for the CPC.

[GiveEmDubya]

By internals I meant breakdowns. Meh.

[fanfan]

Most Canadians can see that Stephen Harper is the ONLY choice to lead this country.

We are very lucky.
TGFSH!

[Reform Canada]

I don't want to jump the gun but with Prime Minister Harper's obvious tactical genius I am starting to think in the year 2020 the Prime Minister of Canada will be Stephen Harper.

[mkjessup]

Ohhhh for the good ol' days, right LIEberals?!?!?
This was as good as it was going to get, you losers.
Put that big 'L' on your forehead, you've earned it.

[GMMAC]

No, you were right the first time FRiend:
"internals" is technically the correct term - I merely followed the terminology used in the pollster's public release in my initial comment attempting to stay consistent with it.

BTW, although we often talk about "40%+" in relation to certain majority governments, in a multi-Party Parliamentary system, it's certainly mathematically possible to achieve them with less popular support & lots of oddball vote splits.
Bob Rae & the NDP certainly proved as much in Ontario back in 1990 when they managed to get elected in numerous 3 major Party races with as little as 36%.
Right up the middle - bang!

[Clive]

-

[GreenLanternCorps]

So when do you and other Canadian Freepers think that Mr. Harper will call the election?

[GMMAC]

Harper's way too cagey to "call" an expensive & time-consuming election which the public doesn't want and will instead select an appropriate, politically wise, hill for his government to die on at the seeming hands of the Opposition Parties.

Accordingly, several 'election trip wires' have been set in the form of Legislation which some or all of them will be highly unlikely to support with most scheduled to come before Parliament within the next 2-6 weeks.

Should they take the bait, "Canada's de facto Karl Rove" will then be able to ... snicker ... cry all the way to the ballot box with his government having been defeated over something along the lines of one of the CPC's proposed 'tough on violent crime' laws by the self-evidently bleeding-hearted & power mad Opposition Parties.

If they don't take it, they can stand by sputtering with impotent indignation, alienating their own core supporters & looking rightly unprincipled while still more of the Conservative agenda goes into effect - LOL!

[Reform Canada]

It looks to me like the opposition is stupid enough to topple the gov't over the carbon trading credits in the environment legislation. Then come election time Harper will have commercials showing the environmental disasters in Russia and China and tell Canadians that Dion whats us to pay higher taxes so we can pay international penalties to human rights violators Russia and China. From coast to coast Canadians will see Harper as the only sane choice and he will win over 200 seats.