Posted on 03/25/2007 8:42:24 PM PDT by GiveEmDubya
Last Updated: Sunday, March 25, 2007 | 9:54 PM ET
CBC News
Quebec faces the real possibility of a minority government for the first time in more than a century, as the province's main political parties remain locked in a virtual tie with voters heading to the polls on Monday.
Quebec has not elected a minority government since 1878, when a dispute over railroad laws erupted between the province's Liberal lieutenant-governor, Hon. Luc Letellier de St-Just, and Charles-Eugène Boucher, the Conservative premier. Boucher was fired, prompting an election in which the Tories, under new leader Joseph-Adolphe Chapleau, squeaked by the Liberals with a one-seat advantage.
Henri-Gustave Joly de Lotnibinière, the Liberal leader, recruited two Independent MNAs to outnumber the Conservative caucus, and assumed the premiership with a minority coalition that lasted 18 months before five members fled the fold.
When the Liberals attempted to call a new election, Quebec's new Conservative lieutenant-governor turned them down, allowing Chapleau's Conservatives to form the new government.
No minority tradition in Quebec
This unique precedent for minority governments in Quebec doesn't offer many lessons for modern-day politicians, said l'Université de Montréal political scientist Pierre Martin. "The party blocks were fluid [then], individuals had room to manoeuvre that they don't have today," he told Canadian Press.
A minority government scenario has not figured in contemporary Quebec politics because of the popular rise of the Parti Québécois, Martin theorizes. When former Quebec premier Maurice Duplessis's Union national faded from the province's political scene in the late 1960s, after ruling for much of the 30s, 40s and 50s, the nascent separatist movement that became the PQ quickly replaced it as the Liberal Party's counterpoint.
"The transition from the Union nationale-Liberal system to the rise of the PQ was very fast," Martin said. "There was no place for a transition situation where a minority government could have been conceivable with the three parties."
Several provinces have flirted with minority governments, including Ontario, where the Liberals ruled from 1985 to 1987 with NDP support. Saskatchewan's NDP governed from 1999 to 2003 despite only holding 29 of the legislature's 58 seats, and Nova Scotia currently has a minority Conservative government.
But Quebec is moving into unfamiliar territory. "I think the most useful [precedent] is the situation before us in the Canadian Parliament — that is to say a minority government that subsists on a case-by-case basis," Martin said.
Quebec parties divided on minority outcome
PQ Leader André Boisclair said his party's plan to hold a first-term referendum won't fall flat if Quebecers elect a minority government on March 26. The PQ is prepared to work with Mario Dumont's Action démocratique du Québec party on the constitutional front, to organize another provincial vote on sovereignty, Boisclair told CBC.
Dumont has repeatedly said he's an autonomist, not a sovereigntist — and during the debate told Boisclair he will not help him with a referendum. But the PQ leader is convinced otherwise.
Dumont is "sending confusing messages. Some days he says he doesn't want a referendum. Some other days he says to sovereigntists 'come to vote for the ADQ,'" he said. "My duty is to leave the door open, and I feel that it's still possible to build a coalition to have a referendum," Boisclair said recently.
Liberal Leader Jean Charest has warned voters a minority government will weaken Quebec's bargaining power with the federal government. "Quebec has never elected, or at least not for 100 years, a minority government, for a reason," he said during the campaign.
Dumont, who is the only leader to predict a minority government outcome, is confident the scenario will lead to greater political accountability, he told CBC. Minority governments paradoxical
Voters do retain the impression that minority governments are more accountable, but they are also be paradoxical, said Vincent Marissal, a political columnist with La Presse, a Montreal daily.
"If you're not happy with [the government] you just fire them and have another election. But people don't like to have elections. It's expensive, and people have to make a choice. But because of cynicism in the population, people like the idea of keeping their government on a short leash," he told CBC.ca.
A minority government is a wake-up call and may force Quebec's leading parties to do some soul-searching, Marissal said. That's what happened to the federal Conservatives.
"When we elected Stephen Harper's minority government, some people said it was almost the end of the world. But the world is still turning, it's not that bad, he's managed to keep it together," Marissal said.
"To see today how green the Conservatives have become, it's the best example to show that a minority government can change a political party, in a deep way."
With files from Canadian Press
ADQ now elected in 30. Liberals ahead by 2. PQ still in fairly distant 3rd.
Somewhere, Stephen Harper is smiling.
Take out the 28 seats on the Island of Montreal (20 LIB, 8 PQ) and the ADQ would have a majority government...
Only 38 seats left undeclared. It's going to decide Charest or Dumont, not Charest or Boisclair most likely.
Boisclair is finished if the numbers stay like this.
It would be one of the biggest upsets I've seen.
Libs by 4. IMO, the ADQ won't do any worse than official opposition.
Charest is now down by 421 votes.
Charest now trails by 421.
Liberals: 37 elect, 9 lead
ADQ: 35 elect, 8 lead
PQ: 26 elect, 10 lead
ADQ is +31 so far tonight.
ADQ now within 1.
Over an hour ago on the CBC website they declared Charest a winner in his seat.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/quebecvotes2007/story/2007/03/26/qcv-charest20070326.html
I guess the CBC didn't learn anything from the MSM declaring Gore a winner in Flordia in 2000.
They'll pull it back, call it for the PQ, pull that back, then a month of recounts. I can see it now... :)
Now most of the non-elects left on the board are in the Liberals & PQ. The ADQ has elected 39.
If the ADQ swings a few in the late count, hello Premier Dumont.
I think Charest will win by a nose, however.
The ADQ is totally smashing the opposition in some of the seats they've gained. It's quite impressive.
I think the PQ lead just went up another few votes.
Claude Forgues PQ 6064 34.6%
Jean Charest LIB 5603 31.97%
Link to live results in Charest's riding
http://www.cbc.ca/quebecvotes2007/riding/111
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