Giuliani's Tipping Point

Townhall ^ | March 24, 2007 | John Hanlon

[FairOpinion]

In his 2000 bestselling book The Tipping Point: How Little Things can make a big Difference, Malcolm Gladwell explores the idea of 'the tipping point,' the moment or time period when an item, an idea, a strategy or a person (or anything for that matter) changes from being just a 'product' into a cultural phenomenon. For example, the crackdown on quality of life crimes in New York City under Giuliani led to an overall 'crime tipping point' in that city where the crime rate went from a high point to an extremely low point in a short period of time, an amazing feat by any measure.

In his book, Malcolm Gladwell writes about the dramatic crime rate change in New York City that happened under America's Mayor. This occurred, Gladwell argues, for several reasons but one of the main reasons behind it was Rudy Giuliani's focus and prosecution of quality of life crimes at the lowest level in the city. As mayor, Giuliani started aggressively going after those responsible for quality of life crimes, such as spraying graffiti and public drunkedness. After this crackdown began, the number of smaller crimes in the city began to decrease and the momentum began building up. With that momentum building, the number of larger crimes began to decrease and crime in the city tipped -- and suddenly, New York City had become much safer than it had been in years.

This was one of the strongest examples of Gladwell’s book (which I strongly recommend, by the way) and it shows how one small idea transformed an entire city.

As an example of this great momentum Giuliani has going for him, recent poll numbers have shown Giuliani rapidly expanding his lead. The latest poll from CNN conducted between March 9th and 11th has the former mayor of New York with the support of 34% of Republicans polled while McCain only has the support of 18% of the Republicans (and he’s in second place!). Meanwhile, the latest poll from the website Rasmussen Reports currently has 33% percent of Republican support behind Giuliani and only 15% of support behind McCain (poll conducted between March 12 and March 15th). Those two polls have Giuliani up by 16% and 18% respectively, an astounding gap with so many candidates in the field and a gap that seems to be expanding with every new poll between these two candidates.

[hellinahandcart]

For ideas and inspiration for hit pieces, they can lurk here on the F.R.

In that case, I hereby grant them blanket permission in advance to use any of my posts.

[dmw]

"Is this a Bizarro FR?"

LOL! That's exactly what it's been like on FR lately. Bizarre indeed!

[ClaireSolt]

At least IO am citing data. You are just bloviating.

[x]

I don't know how much stock to put in the opinions of an intern at townhall.com, but he may have a point.

Rudy is the "24" candidate for President. It's reassuring to have a towering leader like Wayne Palmer in the White House.

But people also want "normalcy" -- whether it's really available or not. They get worn out by too much excitement and tension.

So Rudy's strength -- performing well in a crisis -- may come to be a weakness at the polls: he reminds voters too much of hard times and hard decisions, so they turn to someone more soothing and reassuring.

[TommyDale]

The dates of the quoted poll is March 12 and 15. Since then, when Fred Thompson is added to the list of choices, Rudy's number start dropping dramatically.

If I were the Giuliani supporters, I wouldn't be too quick to count the chickens.

[TommyDale]

"We've been waiting for that dip in the polls and it hasn't happened yet."

You must have missed the threads yesterday that showed Fred Thompson showing surprising strength already. In New Hampshire, Rudy dropped from 27% down to 19% while Fred Thompson, an undeclared candidate, already polls at 9% without even spending a dime or making a single appearance. That should tell you something.

[The Wizard]

GO RUDY, GO

[JHBowden]

"You don't display weakness in front of terrorists."

Pure Awesome from Giuliani. Even some of our more conservative candidates lack the courage to take on the MSM.

[Peach]

Gasp! You mean when a a candidate enters the race, he takes votes away from other candidates? Why, color me shocked. And one little problem for you -- Thompson has to actually do a little something called enter the race.

[gpapa]

Three sentences is bloviating?

[shempy]

So you didn't need to excerpt this article, but you chose to do that in order to remove the portion of the article that you disagreed with (really, the main point of the article). And then you left the post with the same title so that there will be confusion once somebody posts the COMPLETE article.

Your tactics suck.

JUST TO BE CLEAR, THE AUTHOR'S MAIN POINT IS THAT RUDY IS DESTINED TO CRASH AND BURN.

From the actual article:

A lot of pundits are going to disagree with me on this but Giuliani’s current momentum is not a good thing for his campaign, especially ten months before anyone starts voting. Giuliani already has the momentum of a bicyclist at top speed in the race but it can not possibly last and the reason why goes back to Gladwell's whole philosophy of the tipping point.

This momentum can not possibly continue forever for Giuliani especially with all of the negative press about him and his extremely liberal stances on social issues. I recognize that many conservatives are attracted to him for his 'electability' and that is why his numbers keep going up but eventually, Giuliani is going to hit his tipping point and the momentum is going to crash. There is no way that Giuliani's numbers are going to keep like this throughout the summer, let alone into next year.

Howard Dean, the current Chairman of the Democratic Party, experienced both types of tipping points in his 2004 presidential campaign. Using the internet at a very early stage and creating a massive grassroots effort, Howard Dean's campaign tipped early and he went from being a second-tier candidate to the frontrunner in late 2003. His momentum continued to build until late December/ early January when his frontrunner status crashed and his campaign tipped the other way and he went from being the frontrunner to the candidate who lost to Kerry and Edwards in the Iowa caucuses.

In Giuliani's case, he already has a lot of momentum going for him and he is either at his peak or very close to it right now (he is getting to the point where the only place he can go is down). The higher Giuliani gets, the more media attention and scrutiny he gets, the more negative publicity he gets and the closer he comes to his tipping point…

The question is, after his tipping point-- after his bicycle crashes into a wall -- will Giuliani have enough of a chance and enough time to rebuild his momentum to win in next year's primary? Or, when his momentum comes to a crashing halt, who else will be there to pick it up?

[DocH]

Gotta love these liberal fools!

Do we gotta?

Actually, it's more like, "Liberals...

can't live with 'em...

Can't kill 'em (though, maybe one day, we'll have to do what is necessary to put our country back to the way the Founders intended)."

[DocH]

Pure Awesome from Giuliani. Even some of our more conservative candidates lack the courage to take on the MSM.

You rabid RINO-rudy-ROOTERS are LAUGHABLE.

RINO-rudy doesn't have a personal connection with REAL "Courage", anymore than he has a personal connection with REAL CONSERVATISM.

Seriously, just WHAT is so "courageous" about "taking on the mainstream media"?

Courage is defined by MUCH better men, and women, than RINO-rudy ever THOUGHT about being.

His is a slick lawyer & life-long BUREAUCRAT who has NEVER truly served his country (in the traditional sense - the military, where REAL sacrifice & courage is needed), but has merely sucked off the hind teet of the citizen taxpayer "sheeple" he has been fleecing for YEARS.

In short, he is a scumbag, northeastern-corridor, liberal, gun-grabbing, abortion-supporting, bureaucratic RINO maggot.

Stick around, and I might tell you what I REALLY think.

[ClaireSolt]

Any hot air expelled without factual basis is bloviating.

[gpapa]

Verb 1. bloviate - orate verbosely and windily

[narses]

Giuliani/Clinton/Dem vs. GOP Platform Comparison
Issue	Giuliani	Clinton	Dem Platform	GOP Platform
Abortion on Demand	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Partial Birth Abortion	Supports Opposed NY ban	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Roe v. Wade	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Taxpayer Funded Abortions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Embryonic Stem Cell Research	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Federal Marriage Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Defined at state level	Supports
Gay Domestic Partnership/ Civil Unions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Openly Gay Military	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Defense of Marriage Act	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Amnesty for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Special Path to Citizenship for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Tough Penalties for Employers of Illegal Aliens	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Sanctuary Cities/ Ignoring Immigration Law	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Protecting 2nd Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Supports bans	Supports
Confiscating Guns	Supports Confiscated as mayor. Even bragged.	Supports	Supports Supports bans	Opposes
'Assault' Weapons Ban	Supports	Supports	Supports
Frivolous Lawsuits Against Gun Makers	Supports Filed One Himself	Supports		Opposes
Gun Registration/Licenses	Supports	Supports		Opposes
War in Afghanistan	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports	Supports
War in Iraq	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports Weak support	Supports
Patriot Act	Supports	Supports Voted for it 2001 & 2006	Opposes	Supports

"Most of Clinton's policies are very similar to most of mine." - Rudy Giuliani

Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do and how you do it.
Rudy Giuliani

We don't have to accept liberal Rudy. There are other options. This fellow may be the best one:







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Help spread the word: Purchase "Hunter for President" items. Proceeds go to the Hunter campaign.

[narses]

Archives of Rudolph W. Giuliani, 107th Mayor

Opening Remarks to the N.A.R.A.L. "Champions of Choice" Lunch

The Yale Club, Thursday, April 5th, 2001

As Delivered

---

Thank you very much for inviting me to say a few words of welcome. This event shows that people of different political parties and different political thinking can unite in support of choice. In doing so, we are upholding a distinguished tradition that began in our city starting with the work of Margaret Sanger and the movement for reproductive freedom that began in the early decades of the 20th century.

As a Republican who supports a woman's right to choose, it is particularly an honor to be here. And I would like to explain, just for one moment, why I believe being in favor of choice is consistent with the philosophy of the Republican Party. In fact, it might be more consistent with the philosophy of the Republican Party. Because the Republican Party stands for the idea that you have to restore more freedom of choice, more opportunity, more opportunity for people to make their own choices rather than the government dictating those choices. Republicans stand for lower taxation because we believe that people can make better choices with their money than the government will make for them, and that ultimately frees the economy and produces more political freedom. We believe that, yes, government is important, but that the private sector is actually more important in solving our problems.

So it is consistent with that philosophy to believe that in the most personal and difficult choices that a woman has to make with regard to a pregnancy, those choices should be made based on that person's conscience and that person's way of thinking and feeling. The government shouldn't dictate that choice by making it a crime or making it illegal.

I think that's actually a much more consistent position. Many Republicans support that position, but you don't hear that as often. For example, in a recent poll by American Viewpoint, 65 percent of Republicans supported changing the plank in the Republican platform that calls for a constitutional ban on abortion. That's 6.5 out of every 10 Republicans. And over 80 percent of Republicans believe that the decision with regard to an abortion should be made by a woman, her doctor, and her family rather than dictated by the government.

[Applause]

In any case, I just wanted you to know that many of my fellow Republicans stand with you on this issue. So I thank you, I thank NARAL for taking the lead in establishing freedom of choice for all of us, and as the Mayor of New York City, I thank you for being here in New York City.

# # #
http://www.nyc.gov/html/rwg/html/2001b/champlunch.html

[narses]

I’m pro-choice. I’m pro-gay rights, Giuliani said. He was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial-birth abortions. “No, I have not supported that, and I don’t see my position on that changing,” he responded. Source: CNN.com, “Inside Politics” Dec 2, 1999 http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Rudy_Giuliani_Abortion.htm

ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES (November 14, 2006)

RUDY GIULIANI (R), FORMER MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY: I'm pro- choice. I'm pro-gay rights.

KING: Giuliani supports a woman's right to an abortion, and back in 1999, he opposed a federal ban on late-term abortions.

GIULIANI: No, I have not supported that, and I don't see my position on that changing.

KING: Immigration could be another presidential landmine. Back in 1996, Mayor Giuliani went to federal court to challenge new federal laws requiring the city to inform the federal government about illegal immigrants.

JEFFREY: He took the side of illegal immigrants in New York City against the Republican Congress.

KING: Giuliani opposes same-sex marriage but as mayor, he supported civil unions and extending health and other benefits to gay couples. He also supported the assault weapons ban and other gun control measures opposed by the National Rifle Association.

GIULIANI: I'm in favor of gun control. I'm pro-choice.

Republican Big-Wigs Support Pro-Abortion Event in NY

Pro-abortion Governor George Pataki and New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who also supports unrestricted abortion, are co-chairs of the 2000 Choice Award Presentation to be held on May 30 at the St. Regis Hotel in New York City. The event is sponsored by the Republican Pro-Choice Coalition, a group that is campaigning for the removal of the pro-life plank from the Republican National Platform.


http://www.nationalreview.com/murdock/murdock200503010743.asp

[DocH]

GO RUDY, GO

It SHOULD be...

GO AWAY RINO-rudy, GO AWAY!!!

[veronica]

Duncan Hunter has ZERO chance of getting the nomination.

ZERO.