Posted on 03/23/2007 9:17:13 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's directror of strategy sent top supporters a memo 3/22 crowing about a "notable" growth in support for Giuliani since he declared on 2/5.
Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.
Other key bullet points:
Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.
Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.
We've seen some equivocal polling. But our sense is that what Seaborn claim is broadly correct. Giuliani's opponents now say that the mayor's character issues will soften him up and that his cultural liberalism will be the coup de grace. Read the entire memo after the jump.
Growth in Mayor Giuliani’s Ballot Strength
In early 2007, some people said that Mayor Giuliani would not run for President. On February 5th, Mayor Giuliani filed his FEC paperwork and legally declared himself a candidate for the Presidency. He ended this momentous day with an appearance on Hannity & Colmes.
Since the Mayor made his intention to run for President clear, we have seen notable growth in support for our campaign. Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.
The Mayor is Better Known to Conservatives than Some will Acknowledge
Many columnists and pundits question what will happen when Republicans “find out about the Mayor’s views on social issues.” Many of these stories are being generated by the same people that speculated that Mayor Giuliani would never run for President. Over the course of the last month, that question has been dispelled.
A recent Newsweek poll shows Mayor Giuliani with a 25-point lead among Republican and Republican leaning voters and a 30-point lead among social conservatives. Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.
Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.
According to recent analysis by Gallup Poll, Mayor Giuliani receives 47% of the votes among those that attend church “nearly weekly or monthly,” leading his nearest opponent by 28-points. Mayor Giuliani’s ballot share decreases to 31% among those that “attended church weekly” - yet he maintains a 7-point lead over his nearest opponent.
After reviewing other data, I have found similar evidence.
About half of Republican primary voters consider themselves to be “very conservative.” Among those “very conservative” Republican voters, Mayor Giuliani generally maintains a lead.
Another interesting point, about two-thirds of “very conservative” Republican primary voters consider Mayor Giuliani to be a moderate or a liberal. Yet even with these voters, Mayor Giuliani holds a 5-point lead over his nearest competitor.
The fact is - most Republicans believe that Mayor Giuliani is a social moderate or liberal and Mayor Giuliani leads all major candidates in this race (even among “very conservative” Republicans).
There are, of course, some voters that will never vote for Mayor Giuliani, and we know that we will see polls tighten. But the “when voters find out about Rudy’s record the sky will fall” notion is a myth.
Rudy’s positions and record are already known among most Republican primary voters and are factored in to the current polling.
What We Can Expect
Discrediting the commitment of the Mayor to run for President did not work. Telling Republicans that the Mayor’s positions on issues are unacceptable to primary voters does not work either.
As we have seen the next line of attack is aimed at discrediting the Mayor’s character. This attack – while not surprising – should be treated for what it is - cheap and political.
We expect polls to tighten as we move in to spring – such is the nature of the political process. While we are realistic about our expectations going forward, we are also pleased with where we are today and are confident our current support among Republican primary voters is strong.
(((((RUDY PING)))))
Old news. This is the big news today:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1805584/posts
He's got the women and log cabiners on board anyway.
Whatever Tommydale - we Rudybots are not concerned about someone who has not announced yet. When he announces then we will have fun. But hypothetical matchups with people who aren't running means nothing.
Kewl! (I think!) ;-)
The French will love him, at first anyway, because of all the controversy.
And as soon as Newt or Fred Thompson enter the race later this year RINO Rudy viability as a Presidential candidate will fall faster than Bill Clinton's pants at a "Welcome the New Interns" party.
So polls from the usual MSM suspects are the gospel now?
Rudy is a liberal...growing support is not a GOOD thing...
Gosh that's a poor choice of words considering his stance on gun-control.
Nonsense. I strongly suspect this rag defines "social conservative" as anyone who supports fiscal restraint and/or the WOT. That's not a social conservative.
On abortion 62% of social conservatives either identified Giuliani as pro-life or did not know his position. On gun control 81% of social conservatives identified Giuliani as opposed to gun control or not sure of his position. On gay marriage 85% of social conservatives either identified Giuliani as a supporter of a constitutional ban on gay marriage or did not know his position.
It seems a bit of a stretch to say social conservatives know and don't care about his positions when more than 60% have no idea what his positions are.
Note to Rudy and his Team: it ain't over till it's over!
Compare Giuliani's history of gun control to Fred Thompson's:
MAYOR GIULIANI AND SPEAKER VALLONE ANNOUNCE CITY LAWSUIT AGAINST GUN INDUSTRY
Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and City Council Speaker Peter F. Vallone, joined by Corporation Counsel Michael Hess, today announced that the City of New York has filed a lawsuit against two dozen major gun manufacturers and distributors.
The suit alleges a number of illegal practices conducted by the gun industry, including:
Deliberately manufacturing many more firearms than can be bought for legitimate purposes such as hunting and law enforcement, and knowingly targeting these excess guns to criminals, youths and other persons unqualified to buy firearms;
Deliberately undermining New York City's gun control laws by flooding markets with looser gun laws with firearms that the manufacturers know are destined to be illegally resold in New York City;
Ignoring the illegal practices of gun distributors, many of whom openly engage in the above practices;
Refusing to manufacture safer guns, with such features as trigger locks and "personalization" measures that allow only authorized persons to fire the weapon. "This is an industry that is profiting from the suffering of innocent people,"
Mayor Giuliani said. "What's worse, its profits rest on a number of illegal and immoral practices. This lawsuit is meant to end the free pass that the gun industry has so long enjoyed."
Council Speaker Vallone said, "More than 30,000 people, including 4,200 children, die every year in the U.S. from firearms-more people than in any other country in the world. I join with the Mayor in this lawsuit to send a message to gun manufacturers that New York City will hold them accountable for their reckless and irresponsible practices."
The suit seeks an as yet unspecified amount of damages for the many ways in which these illegal practices and illegal guns harm New York City and its residents-including, for instance, the $17 million per year spent by the City Health and Hospitals Corporation treating gunshot wounds.
Defendants named in the suit include most major gun manufacturers, distributors and dealers currently operating the United States, or who export large numbers of guns to the United States.
Plaintiffs in the lawsuit are the City of New York, Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, City Council Speaker Peter F. Vallone, and the Health and Hospitals Corporation.
The suit was filed in the United States District Court, Eastern District of New York.
Gun control politicians like Giuliani prefer unarmed peasants !
Dream, dream, dream.
It's always somebody --- fill in the blank --- who's going to knock off Rudy.
I'll believe it when I see it.
It's always somebody --- fill in the blank --- who's going to knock off Rudy.
I'll believe it when I see it."
Let's PRAY somebody CONSERVATIVE knocks off Rudy...
And come September you dream will turn into a nighmare. Mark my words
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