Posted on 03/23/2007 9:17:13 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's directror of strategy sent top supporters a memo 3/22 crowing about a "notable" growth in support for Giuliani since he declared on 2/5.
Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.
Other key bullet points:
Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.
Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.
We've seen some equivocal polling. But our sense is that what Seaborn claim is broadly correct. Giuliani's opponents now say that the mayor's character issues will soften him up and that his cultural liberalism will be the coup de grace. Read the entire memo after the jump.
Growth in Mayor Giuliani’s Ballot Strength
In early 2007, some people said that Mayor Giuliani would not run for President. On February 5th, Mayor Giuliani filed his FEC paperwork and legally declared himself a candidate for the Presidency. He ended this momentous day with an appearance on Hannity & Colmes.
Since the Mayor made his intention to run for President clear, we have seen notable growth in support for our campaign. Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.
The Mayor is Better Known to Conservatives than Some will Acknowledge
Many columnists and pundits question what will happen when Republicans “find out about the Mayor’s views on social issues.” Many of these stories are being generated by the same people that speculated that Mayor Giuliani would never run for President. Over the course of the last month, that question has been dispelled.
A recent Newsweek poll shows Mayor Giuliani with a 25-point lead among Republican and Republican leaning voters and a 30-point lead among social conservatives. Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.
Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.
According to recent analysis by Gallup Poll, Mayor Giuliani receives 47% of the votes among those that attend church “nearly weekly or monthly,” leading his nearest opponent by 28-points. Mayor Giuliani’s ballot share decreases to 31% among those that “attended church weekly” - yet he maintains a 7-point lead over his nearest opponent.
After reviewing other data, I have found similar evidence.
About half of Republican primary voters consider themselves to be “very conservative.” Among those “very conservative” Republican voters, Mayor Giuliani generally maintains a lead.
Another interesting point, about two-thirds of “very conservative” Republican primary voters consider Mayor Giuliani to be a moderate or a liberal. Yet even with these voters, Mayor Giuliani holds a 5-point lead over his nearest competitor.
The fact is - most Republicans believe that Mayor Giuliani is a social moderate or liberal and Mayor Giuliani leads all major candidates in this race (even among “very conservative” Republicans).
There are, of course, some voters that will never vote for Mayor Giuliani, and we know that we will see polls tighten. But the “when voters find out about Rudy’s record the sky will fall” notion is a myth.
Rudy’s positions and record are already known among most Republican primary voters and are factored in to the current polling.
What We Can Expect
Discrediting the commitment of the Mayor to run for President did not work. Telling Republicans that the Mayor’s positions on issues are unacceptable to primary voters does not work either.
As we have seen the next line of attack is aimed at discrediting the Mayor’s character. This attack – while not surprising – should be treated for what it is - cheap and political.
We expect polls to tighten as we move in to spring – such is the nature of the political process. While we are realistic about our expectations going forward, we are also pleased with where we are today and are confident our current support among Republican primary voters is strong.
Rudy, what're you gonna do about illegal immigrants?
Rudy PING!
After his speech, the speakers took some Q&A from the assembled guests.
The first question from the crowd was regarding (no surprise) Illegal Immigration. Rudy essentially gave three steps that need to be enacted in any immigration reform legislation. The first step is to seal the borders. Secondly, there needs to be a mechanism for those who are here illegally to come forward so that we can identify who they are and screen them for criminals and potential terrorists. Thirdly, any immigration reform measure would have to included an English language requirement to foster assimilation into American Culture.
Rudy ping list is activated! :-)
Maybe that "control freak of a husband" Tom Cruise will announce his candidacy. You never know. I always knew there was something wrong in the head with that guy...
I'm confused. Is this the opinion of the people at Hotline, or just the press release from the Giuliani campaign? It wasn't clear to me, but it looks like it's just a post of the memo from the campaign.
LOL...I do like Rudy, but really...that was very funny!
Its not on the campaign website but it's from the campaign. It was sent to top supporters and Hotline got a hold of it.
Sanctuary City Rudy suddenly had a "Come to Jesus" moment.
"Oh please, don't let those dumb Christian conservatives notice I changed my position on illegal immigration."
Rudy's duplicitous handlers use the same old mind games.
This is called projection---making stupid claims to manipulate voters' into thinking such claims are true.
Yawn.
We're wasting our breath with the Rudy Rooters.
They seem to feel that freeds is overrated, anyway.
Did you know Rudy wore a dress?
Rudy has no chance once Tom Tancredo gets rolling.
sorry - old news. Let's try again:
Rudy has no chance once Duncan Hunter gets going.
oops. That's old news too. One more time:
Rudy has no chance once Fred Thompson gets going.
One question: Why is everyone so critical about the Giulianis each having three marriages over 30+ years when the anti-Rudy faction has had three candidates in the past two months?
You're right.
Words ARE better than actions.
As mayor, he made NYC a sanctuary city.
Yep.
That's right in line with his three step plan.
LOL! BINGO!! First Duncan Hunter, then Newt and now Fred Thompson. Which one is the White Knight in Shining Armor?
Hmm.
Trying to turn NYC into a sanctuary city...
OR,
His words during a run for the Presidency...
Which one should I believe more...?
Maybe because there is no "anti-Rudy" faction?
There are groupS of individuals who feel that other, truly conservative candidates offer a better choice.
Personally, I don't care about his marriages.
His record on conservative issues is much worse than his divorce record.
I already know who you believe. I don't try to convince people who are stuck in a time warp.
Your assertion that people are flip-flopping between other candidates and potential candidates is patently false AND YOU KNOW IT.
It is not. First it was Duncan Hunter - he was THE Conservative - then Newt said he might join and he was THE conservative and now its Thompson as THE conservative to vote for. Which one is it now?
Isn't it rich?
Isn't it queer,
Losing my timing this late
In my career?
And where are the clowns?
There ought to be clowns.
Well, maybe next year.
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