Posted on 03/23/2007 8:37:20 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
China seen topping U.S. carbon emissions in 2007
By Emma Graham-Harrison and Gerard Wynn
53 minutes ago
China is on course to overtake the United States this year as the world's biggest carbon emitter, estimates based on Chinese energy data show, potentially pressuring Beijing to take more action on climate change.
China's emissions rose by some 10 percent in 2005, a senior U.S. scientist estimated, while Beijing data shows fuel consumption rose more than 9 percent in 2006, suggesting China would easily outstrip the U.S. this year, long before forecasts.
Taking the top spot would focus pressure on China to do more to brake emissions as part of world talks on extending the United Nations' Kyoto Protocol on global warming beyond 2012.
Thirty five developed nations have agreed to cut emissions under Kyoto and they want others -- especially the United States and China -- to do more.
"It looks likely to me that China will pass the United States this year," said Gregg Marland, a senior staff scientist at the U.S. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), which supplies data to governments, researchers and non-governmental organizations worldwide.
"There's a very high likelihood they'll pass them in 2007."
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is produced by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas for heat, power and transport. Most scientists say it is a key contributor to global warming.
Marland used fossil fuel consumption data from oil company BP to calculate China's CO2 emissions in 2005 at 5.3 billion tonnes, versus 5.9 billion for the U.S., with respective growth in 2005 of 10.5 percent and less than 0.1 percent.
In 2006 Chinese fuel consumption rose 9.3 percent to the equivalent of 2.4 billion tonnes of coal that year, the deputy head of the office that advises China on energy policy, Xu Dingming, said on Thursday.
This was faster than BP's estimate of a 9 percent rise in China's oil, gas and coal consumption in 2005, to 1.45 billion tonnes of oil equivalent.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises 26 rich nations, had already said last November that on current trends China would overtake the United States as the world's biggest carbon emitter before 2010.
China's Office of the National Coordination Committee on Climate Change said it could not comment on either forecast as it did not have a reliable estimate of the country's emissions.
"These figures are very complicated -- we don't have an estimate of CO2 for such a recent date," said an official who declined to be named. "We have just set in motion our national reporting plan... but it will not be done for two or three years."
US CITIZENS STILL TOP EMITTERS
U.N. data for 2003 put the U.S. top with 23 percent of world carbon dioxide emissions and China second on 16.5 percent. But U.S. individuals were far bigger emitters, at 20 tonnes per capita against China's 3.2 tonnes and a world average of 3.7.
China argues that wealthy nations are responsible for most of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere and should lead the way in cutting emissions.
And much of the growth in China's emissions is to produce goods consumed in the West, raising ethical questions over who bears responsibility for those emissions.
Higher economic growth and fuel use translates into higher emissions, particularly in China, which gets around 70 percent of its energy from coal, the highest carbon-emitting fuel.
CDIAC's 2004 emissions estimates, based on BP data, closely matched the IEA's estimates for the same year -- reached using its own energy data and U.N. emissions calculation methods, strengthening the reliability of the BP data, Marland said.
He estimated a plus or minus 15 to 20 percent error in the Chinese data versus a possible 5 percent U.S. error margin.
China's rapid growth in carbon emissions is threatening to outweigh efforts by the European Union and others to tackle climate change -- EU leaders said earlier this month they would cut the bloc's greenhouse gases by at least a fifth by 2020.
But China between now and 2015 will build power generating capacity equal to the entire existing capacity in the whole of the European Union, the IEA estimates.
China's growth has been fueled largely by burning coal, and it is still building new power plants at an unprecedented rate. Last year alone it added around 100 gigawatts of new generators, approaching France's entire capacity, most of them coal-burning.
A United Nations panel of climate scientists predicted last month a "best estimate" that temperatures would rise by 1.8 to 4.0 Celsius (3.2 to 7.8 Fahrenheit) this century, blaming mankind's emissions of greenhouse gases like CO2.
Ping!
We haven't been the main polluter for a LONG time.
I suspect that they surpassed the United States a few years ago.
Soon China would find no equals when it comes to pollution. It must be growing faster than their economy.
And the more affluent they become, the greater the emissions. Of course, they are not covered by Kyoto, which gives them a pass along with India, i.e., they represent one-third of the people on the planet. Does anyone really believe that China would hobble its roaring economy by agreeing to these environmental controls?
The Euros will still bash the US and not China. It's in their genes to hate us.
I think we can forget the minus.
According to the UN, the USA is not even in the Top 10 of polluters.
I'm sure Al Gore is deeply saddened.
They are building a coal fired electrical generation plants one a week. And their pollution is not only related to manufacturing and infrastructure improvements. It relates to growing wealth and affluence.
"While in Beijing there are still 2.4 million people who ride their bicycles to work every day, nearly 1,000 new cars hit the streets daily. China's roads are expected to be clogged with 170 million vehicles by 2020 says the World Bank -- by which time the country would have surpassed the United States in total car ownership.
"No one is doubting that more and more Chinese people are going to reach that threshold of affordability -- to buy their own car," said John Humphrey, manager of China operation for the U.S.-based car industry consultants J.D.Power Asia Pacific. "The pace of change we have seen in China's auto market is astounding but demand is still growing."
Seven million cars are sold in China each year. That means China this year left Japan behind to become the second-largest car market in the world after the U.S., where more than 16 million cars are sold annually.
And with this growing vehicle population so will there be an increase in pollution and a growing demand for oil. The US and China are destined to be the world's major competititors for oil and energy. Forget this global warming crap and Gore's assurances that China will cooperate with us on the environment.
Emissions from cars in the U.S. alone now account for about five percent of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. If China matched the U.S. in per capita ownership, the country's vehicles would make a huge contribution to global carbon dioxide output, dwarfing any cuts in the emissions that the rest of the world can make.
They allready *did* quite some time ago.
in no way, is the US top per capita
emitter of co2.
total lie
To many chicoms farting.
Can we encourage the Goracle to take up permanent residence there to assist them in correcting this problem?
Let's hope their cars have better emission standards than their factories do!
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