For some reason I don't believe this is so. I don't think I could vote for Rudy (although I guess you can say never say never), and I wouldn't vote for McCain. So I really can't be attributed to votes taken from either. To be honest, I don't see how you can wholly want Rudy and then just switch to Fred.
They're two different idealogies altogether, and I'd wager it's mostly an either/or situation. I'm not sure there are many Rudy fans that just flip-over to the Fred-line. I think they just start-out in the Fred-line.
I find our new poll interesting...Fred with a 46.7% of the votes...Rudy at 10% and McCain at .6%. It doesn't really look to me that within the Conservatives (atleast) the votes are harming Rudy from winning. McCain will not have our support, and I do believe we as conservative will have a hute effect on the primaries.
You are in the 'perot redux' group in my thesis. ;)
And I don't think FR is a representative sample.
There are social conservatives who are more pragmatic and are supporting Rudy because he can win. Not a huge compromise in their minds since he will have the right fiscal policy and will appoint the right judges. But still, they are backing into Rudy. These are the people who could, reasonably, switch to Fred.
If, say, Rudy is 45% w/o Fred and McCain is 35%, and half of Rudy's support bolts to Fred, then we have Rudy at 22.5%, Fred at, say 22.5 + 10 from the 'perots'... in which case McCain wins.