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You are in the 'perot redux' group in my thesis. ;)

And I don't think FR is a representative sample.

There are social conservatives who are more pragmatic and are supporting Rudy because he can win. Not a huge compromise in their minds since he will have the right fiscal policy and will appoint the right judges. But still, they are backing into Rudy. These are the people who could, reasonably, switch to Fred.

If, say, Rudy is 45% w/o Fred and McCain is 35%, and half of Rudy's support bolts to Fred, then we have Rudy at 22.5%, Fred at, say 22.5 + 10 from the 'perots'... in which case McCain wins.

"You are in the 'perot redux' group in my thesis. ;)"

Perot...lol. Never. I didn't vote at the time. I'm more of libertarian, and I'm very prudent in giving support to the R's. I just happen to hate most of current liberal platforms....but to be honest, I don't think that's good enough of a reason to vote R ie an alternative crappy candidate.

Frankly I wish our gov when back to a conservative/libertarian arguement w/ just a vague liberal view within. I think that all depends on libertarian/conservatives/religous people working together for common goals. The Republicans shouldn't be moving more to the left...that's very dangerous...you have to admit that?

GW offended many people on illegal immigration...imagine an actual quasi-republican offend whole sectors of the R's. That's dangerous territory that I wish to avoid.

"Not a huge compromise in their minds since he will have the right fiscal policy and will appoint the right judges."

Fiscally, neither side has the cahones to do much of anything that will long-tern change things, although I do trust Rudy to some level in that area.

The judges...well, that's really up-in-the-air. A leap of faith,...but not in god....in Rudy. Not quite sure I trust him there.

"But still, they are backing into Rudy. These are the people who could, reasonably, switch to Fred."

Any viable religious vote would heavily consider Fred. So I can see that part of your arguement. But you're not considering that people that support McCain may switch to Fred as well.

I just think you're coming-up with heavy assumptions. Half of Rudy's numbers....? That seems a bit farfetched.