Okay, that sounds about right. This one is twisted a lot tighter by the present international climate.
Ooops, I think it was 2005. In any case, it could be the Iranians are relying on the same thing to happen in this case (no military response, that is). The reasonable assumption is that it will be just another staged diplomatic incident that ends quietly, with only a bit of humiliation for the West (apparently at a level we find acceptable), and a propaganda boost to Iran's image of being powerful. And it gets Ahmanutjob off the hook from having to be present in the US and appear at the UN.