Posted on 03/12/2007 11:05:31 AM PDT by areafiftyone
p>An early assessment of the candidates competing in South Carolina’s all-important Republican presidential primary next February:
• U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona remains the front-runner, but his candidacy appears to be slipping away. McCain doesn’t look or act like a candidate who has fire in his belly. This is the senator’s second try for the White House; he lost to George Bush in 2000.
• Rudy Giuliani’s star is on the rise, and he hasn’t done anything. Considered a liberal by some Republicans, the former New York mayor has emerged as the biggest surprise so far in the GOP race.
• Mitt Romney appears to be stuck in neutral. The former Massachusetts governor has great personal wealth and the best organization. But for some reason, he can’t get any traction.
• The second- and third-tier candidates, including U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, are hoping to break out. But their chances are slim to none. They lack the cash.
“They’re out of luck. It’s hard to make noise” when you have heavyweights in the race like McCain, Giuliani and Romney, pollster John Zogby said in a recent interview with a Myrtle Beach television station.
The S.C. primary is very important. Dixie is a key region for the Republicans in terms of the presidential nomination, and South Carolina is the first Southern primary. It’s critically important because — like Frank Sinatra said of New York — if you can make it there, then you can make it anywhere throughout the South, Zogby said.
“I think it is shaping up as one of the most fascinating races in history,” said Greenville-based Republican strategist Chip Felkel, who supports Giuliani.
GOP pollster Whit Ayres says Giuliani is an “authentic national hero with a truly stunning record of accomplishments.”
He cautioned against “dismissing Rudy too quickly.”
Giuliani is unscripted. What you see is what you get. He makes no effort to alter his views on controversial social issues, including abortion and civil unions for gays, to placate right-wing voters.
Polls show voters aren’t interested in those issues anyway. They are looking for candidates with strong leadership skills. Abortion rights, gay marriages and gun control are hardly blips on the radar screen.
“People want someone who is real,” Felkel said.
McCain, 70, played that role in South Carolina’s 2000 GOP primary against Bush, when the Arizona senator was the insurgent, a role with which he is much more comfortable. He was better and more effective then.
This time around, Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard sees a totally different McCain. “He looks tired. He doesn’t inspire. He doesn’t invigorate people like he did,” Woodard says.
Still, Richard Quinn, a Columbia-based consultant retained by McCain, said he isn’t worried about Giuliani or Romney.
The tenor of the campaign will change once voters start comparing the candidates on the issues, Quinn said. “Then we will discover Rudy is not a conservative,” he said.
Similarly, Terry Sullivan, state campaign director for Romney, takes issue with criticisms of the former Massachusetts governor.
Sullivan compares his candidate to Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C. DeMint took a while to catch on with the voters, Sullivan said, but won anyway. “I feel we’re where we need to be,” he said of Romney’s S.C. campaign.
A lot could happen in the 10 months leading up to the primary.
“It will happen,” Sullivan promised.
Batten down the hatches.
The race will not be for the faint-hearted.
Lee Bandy, a retired South Carolina State political reporter, covered S.C. politics for more than 40 years.
((((((RUDY PING)))))
Thompson was on WABC-NYC this morning. He is definitely running, he's not making all these media appearances and crafting all these positions for nothing.
once he gets in, its a two-man race.
He didn't say he was running. He said he is keeping the door open. Believe me if he was running there would be a huge FOX NEWS ALERT! LOL!
Don't get your hopes up too much - he has an NBC contract to get out of and he has to appease his buddy McCain first. Like he said yesterday he's taking a wait and see attitude because he is friends with many who are running. He's doing a Newt Gingrich type wait.
he may not have "said" he was running, but he is. McCain is going nowhere, so if that's his impediment to getting in - it will soon be cleared.
You are right, he is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the social conservatives to beat Rudy up. He doesn't want to enter the race with Rudy strong, he wants him beaten up.
Also, Thompson is clearly for a guest worker/normalization policy for illegals already here. He talked about border security in the interview this morning, but then went on to say that "once the border is secure, then you can begin to deal with the millions already here".
Ziggy Zogby Ziggy Zogby Oy Oy Oy!
Ziggy Zogby Ziggy Zogby Oy Oy Oy!
Crack for the weak...
Well Well Well that's exactly what Rudy said. Thompson seems to be agreeing with Rudy and the same thing with Same Sex marriage. He's okay with civil unions but not marriage - just like Rudy.
Giuliani can easily win the nomination without South Carolina and Dixie. No one else can.
I'm not a fan of Zogby but he was disgustingly correct in the 2006 election.
He can - I think McCain will win SC - I hate to say this but by a very small margin.
How come no Hunter references?
I agree.
The abortion issue remains Rudy's biggest "problem" with the base and the socons. No (electable) republican candidate is going to emerge who will have a position for forced deporation of illegals, or for doing away with states rights as it pertains to gay civil unions.
You are right - that will be a problem with them. But if they want to split their party vote then let them. They can vote for Duncan Hunter if they prefer - and the rest who don't care about social issues that much will vote for Rudy, McCain or Romney.
Didn't he do very well in the SC poll? Maybe after the first debate Duncan will start to resonate with voters - they haven't really seen him yet and not many were able to watch CPAC on CSpan. But the debates will be televised on the regular channels I hope.
"once he gets in, its a two-man race."
Why? What has Thompson got behind that deep baritone voice that makes him "sound" presidential? I'm not ruling him out, but the fact is that he RETURNED to being an actor after being a US Senator. That's a big difference from the Reagan career path. Plus, he is 65 but he looks 75:
http://msnbcmedia1.msn.com/j/ap/wx11103111621.widec.jpg
well actually, they will vote for Thompson (outside SC, which I know this thread is about, but I'm looking ahead). in other words, if Thompson gets in, he is going to run hard on abortion, because its the one area where he can differentiate himself from Rudy. On immigration, and states rights for gay civil unions, both Rudy and Thompson essentially have identical positions.
Of course, the further to the right Thompson runs on abortion, the more independents peel away and go Dem - which makes the general election, harder for Thompson to actually win.
If Thompson gets in the race it is to slow down Rudy for McCain and then he throws his support to McCain in exchance for the VP slot! Take to the bank! He is a hero worshipper of McCain just like Lindsey Graham. Whatever McCain says goes and some folks on here don't have a clue to how little he did in the Senate except support McCain.
We cannot even tell on the investigations he led as so many parts were redacted. The only Senator that truely stood up on Theft of Nuclear Secrets was Sen Jim Inhofe who refused to back McCain and came out in the primary for Pres Bush after Thompson and three others backed McCain openly.
That spoke volumes to me then and now. Thompson is trying to play off of his TV career for McCain IMHO.
If Fred Thompson enters the race, the GOP candidate will not be the Liberal Mr. G.
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