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THE GIULIANI TEMPTATION (Reinhard)
The Oregonian ^ | Marc 11, 2007 | David Reinhard

Posted on 03/11/2007 10:46:27 AM PDT by jazusamo

Sunday, March 11, 2007

I 'll confess, like many conservatives, I'm charmed by Rudy Giuliani. "America's mayor" is not my kind of Republican presidential candidate. He's pro gay rights and not pro-life; he has an exceedingly messy, and public, private life that poses moral as well as political problems.

But, then again, Americans don't elect presidents on paper. There is the Rudy the U.S. attorney who decimated the Mafia. There is the Rudy who turned New York City around with tax cuts, welfare reform, tough-on-crime action and zero tolerance for politically correct cant. There's Rudy 9/11, the mensch of Manhattan and, in the process, America. And there is Rudy the presidential candidate, stressing common ground with GOP traditionalists -- strict constructionist judges from John Roberts to Antonin Scalia, democratic instead of judicial fixes to controversial issues -- and treating them with a respect they didn't get from past intraparty foes. And putting up big numbers in the polls.

My own openness to Rudy surprises me. Many other social conservatives probably know the feeling.

I suggest we all take a cold shower.

There's a long way to go until the first primary. Today's polls showing Giuliani over John McCain reflect name recognition more than anything else, and Giuliani's name ID is chiefly about 9/11. Between now and the first primary, Rudy 9/10 will get as much attention as Rudy 9/11. For some voters, this will be a reminder. For many more, it will be new information. Not all of it will be pretty.

He will have to answer pointed questions about his new and old positions. He'll have to square past statements with more recent pronouncements. How does his current opposition to activist judges jibe with his past belief that Roe v. Wade is "good constitutional law"? Is his recent embrace of a ban on partial-birth abortion inconsistent with his past opposition? What about his past support for McCain-Feingold's assault on free speech in campaigns?

Giuliani may have answers to all these questions, and many more to come. Terrific. But it's far too early to throw in with Rudy. It's critical to hear from other announced candidates with less name ID (Mitt Romney) or conservatives with equal name ID who may get in (Newt Gingrich, Fred Thompson).

Are social conservatives ready to shortchange stands they've championed for decades because of Giuliani's 9/11 performance or poll numbers? Or a few promising words or winks? What makes social conservative leaders so sure he will live up to his part of any deal after he's won the nomination or White House? Or that the party's pro-life, traditional-values base will stick with an abortion-rights, gay-rights standard bearer? Are post-2006 social conservatives so keen on winning that they'll sign on with a candidate who opposes them on key cultural issues? What would a Giuliani candidacy do the GOP's largely successful "brand"?

These are not loaded questions. They're questions I wrestle with these days. I want a president who is committed to fighting radical Islam and can articulate why we're doing all we can under the Constitution to crush this enemy. Rudy's clearly one among many GOP candidates who fill the bill. But he comes with many unanswered questions.

Answer these questions in Giuliani's favor, and questions about his personal history remain. Yes, it's his private life. But he himself put his private life on gaudy public display as mayor. We'll see reruns of the tawdry soap opera that was the simultaneous end of his marriage to Donna Hanover and his about-town affair with Judith Nathan as surely as we'll see his comforting and inspiring 9/11 footage.

It's odd. Many conservatives who properly dismiss the electric, conservatively correct Gingrich because of his two divorces and "marital issues" are open to a Giuliani equally burdened by libido and ego. Forget the moral questions here. Somehow I doubt Democrats will give Rudy 9/10 a pass on this if the GOP picks him.

Was 9/11 so psychologically searing -- and Rudy's healing role so central -- that some social conservatives are no longer thinking clearly. Or is the trauma of Election Day 2006 to blame? Or today's polls?

How else to explain their premature openness to a GOP presidential candidate whose social liberalism and liberal social life that would have once made such a candidacy unthinkable.

David Reinhard, associate editor, can be reached at 503-221-8152 or davidreinhard@news.oregonian.com.


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: clinton; electionpresident; elections; giuliani; hillary; reinhard
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To: FairOpinion

The only ones in the polls with any name recognition are Giuliani, McCain and Gingrich. All three have zipper control problems and temper control problems. Newt and McCain are yesterday's news. It is no wonder Giuliani is rolling over them. We need real primaries and real decisions by real primary voters, not a pre-annoiting by biased press and pollsters.


41 posted on 03/11/2007 4:16:20 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Are there any men left in Washington? Or are there only cowards? Ahmad Shah Massoud)
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To: Vigilanteman

Giuliani Leads Three Democrats in Florida

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1799208/posts


In poll after poll, Rudy is the only one consistently beating all leading Dem candidates.


42 posted on 03/11/2007 4:18:12 PM PDT by FairOpinion (Victory in Iraq. Stop Hillary. Go to: http://www.TheVanguard.org)
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To: Vigilanteman
"We need real primaries and real decisions by real primary voters, not a pre-annoiting by biased press and pollsters."

This far out there's still plenty of time. Heck, even Newt says he's not going to make up his mind till this fall (but he's still running as fast as the rest). Hopefully in a few weeks PRE-primary fatigue will set in and this nonsense will quiet own and some other candidates will emerge.

43 posted on 03/11/2007 4:20:32 PM PDT by CWOJackson
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To: FairOpinion

The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.


44 posted on 03/11/2007 4:21:12 PM PDT by mkjessup ("ahhh don't feel noways tired...ahhh've come too faaaaaar...from whar ahhh started from...!")
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To: CWOJackson

You're a voice of calm in the storm, Chief, and I agree.


45 posted on 03/11/2007 4:35:23 PM PDT by jazusamo (http://warchronicle.com/TheyAreNotKillers/DefendOurMarines.htm)
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To: jazusamo

Thanks.


46 posted on 03/11/2007 4:36:37 PM PDT by CWOJackson
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To: FairOpinion

In poll after poll, Rudy is the only one consistently beating all leading Dem candidates, until you tell them what Rudy stands for:

Kill Babies
Gay Marriage
Ban Firearms
Amnesty for Illegals
Big Government
Fascistism


47 posted on 03/11/2007 6:04:19 PM PDT by El Laton Caliente (NRA Member & www.Gunsnet.net Moderator)
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To: El Laton Caliente; areafiftyone

I am sure you already know this, but here is the list of what Rudy stands for an accomplished (excellent summary with links, by areafiftyone):



http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1790765/posts?page=56#56


Additional reading material:

Politics And Moralizing In Presidential Primaries

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1790774/posts


For Republican candidates, the toughest litmus tests are not about any actual policy alternatives, foreign or domestic, but about "social issues." What most social issues have in common is that they are none of the federal government's business, let alone the president's.


The federal government will never pass a law banning or permitting abortion, so a presidential candidate's opinion on that subject has no practical relevance.

The federal government will never pass a law banning or prohibiting states and religious organizations from defining marriage, and presidents cannot enact constitutional amendments, so gay marriage is not a federal issue, either.


Licensing of handguns is mainly a local issue, and no candidate is about to push for ending the federal ban on machine guns and assault rifles.


...polls show that a substantial majority of Republican voters approve of Giuliani's positions on all social issues, so the demand for ideological purity in these cases seems to require that candidates capitulate to a minority of the minority party. That does not sound like a recipe for success.


In the general election, however, the winner will emphasize concrete ideas about those issues a president can actually affect and be properly optimistic about the wondrous U.S. economy.



48 posted on 03/11/2007 6:32:48 PM PDT by FairOpinion (Victory in Iraq. Stop Hillary. Go to: http://www.TheVanguard.org)
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To: jazusamo

thanks, bfl


49 posted on 03/11/2007 9:34:30 PM PDT by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: FairOpinion; All

Early polls aren't a done deal.

Remember Muskie and Howard Dean.


50 posted on 03/11/2007 10:19:54 PM PDT by Sun (Vote for Duncan Hunter in the primaries. See you there.)
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To: FairOpinion

No.


51 posted on 03/11/2007 10:20:58 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: FairOpinion

Yes and I also remember flashbunny's



Culture of life:

ABC clip:

George Will: "Do you think Roe v Wade was good constitutional law?"

Rudy Giuliani: "Yes I believe, I believe it is."

Cnn Clip December 2, 1999:

Announcer: "Giuliani was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial birth abortions, something Bush strongly supports."

Rudy Giuliani : "No, I have not supported that, and I don't see my position on that changing."

Immigration

CNN clip:

Announcer: "Back in 1996, mayor Giuliani went to federal court to challenge new federal laws requiring the city to inform the federal government about illegal immigrants."

Rudy Giuliani: "There isn't a mayor or a public official in this country that's more strongly pro immigrant than I am. Including disagreeing with President Clinton when he signed an anti-immigration legislation about two or three years ago."

Gun control:

CNN clip

Rudy Giuliani: "I'm in favor of gun control"

Meet The Press:

Tim Russert: "How about registration of all handguns?"

Rudy Giuliani: "You know I'm in favor of that. I've been on your show many times."

Gay Rights:

CNN Clip:

Announcer: "As mayor he supported civil unions, and extending health and other benefits to gay couples."

ABC Clip: "I supported domestic partnership legislation and signed it"

Meet The Press:

Tim Russert: "So should gay people be openly allowed to serve?"

Rudy Giuliani: "I think people should be judged on the merits. And there should not be a specific focus on someone's sexual orientation."

First Amendment:

ABC Clip

Cokie Roberts: "Would you vote in the senate in favor of Mccain / Feingold?"

Rudy Giuliani: "Yes, I'm a big supporter of Mccain / Feingold. I have been for a long time."

Party Loyalty:

ABC Clip:

Rudy Giuliani: "Frankly George, I'd like to run on all the lines. I'd like to run on the liberal line, the conservative line, I'd like to run on the democratic line if I could figure out how to do it."

Conservative Values:

Meet The Press:

Tim Russert: "Whether it's gays in the military, gun control, campaign finance, late term abortion - you and Hillary Clinton are in sync on those issues."

Rudy Giuliani: "Well then maybe the other side should stop the 'He's part of the vast right wing conspiracy'."



He'll still run the conservative base out of the party and give Hillary the only chance she could have.

And, yes, I know he's a law & order fascist who will ignore constitutional rights and law whenever it suites him...


52 posted on 03/12/2007 3:57:55 AM PDT by El Laton Caliente (NRA Member & www.Gunsnet.net Moderator)
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To: FairOpinion

One more thing... HR1022, the Assault Weapons Ban bill introduced by Caty McCarty. The gun guys know Rudy will sign it as fast as Hillary. They are NOT going to vote for him by around a 2 to 1 margine. That's about 7 million votes out of the Republican base just like GHWB in 1992...

Don't believe me? Go ask them: http://www.gunsnet.net/forums/showthread.php?t=304773


53 posted on 03/12/2007 4:12:22 AM PDT by El Laton Caliente (NRA Member & www.Gunsnet.net Moderator)
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