Giuliani Can't Win the General Election

The Sierra Times ^ | 03/07/2007 | John Bender

[zook]

I disagree. The writer overestimates the number of conservatives who will stay home and severely underestimates the number of independents and moderates who will vote for Rudy.

I think Rudy takes NY, all or most of the south, maybe CA, and wins it all.

[mcg2000]

"Giuliani Can't Win the General Election"

wrong ...

[freedomfiter2]

Those in the second category, they’d like a more conservative candidate, but will vote for whoever gets the GOP nomination, are actually helping assure that they will never get what they want in a candidate.


The writer nailed it. If conservatives put party over principle, they will be to the GOP what the blacks are to the Dems.

[rockinqsranch]

Next year we'll all be looking at a completely different picture. There's a long road ahead, kick back and relax and watch the show.

[cripplecreek]

He can win a popularity contest but he'll crash and burn when the issues begin to get some discussion.

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

The Rudy PIMPS are trying to shut up all conservatives one year before the primaries because they want the voters to have only two choices, a democrat or a democrat with an R by ITS name.
Either way they will have a far left winger as POTUS.

[Apple Pan Dowdy]

Question.... do you all think that Newt Gingrich could be added to the "conservative" winners list if he runs?

[Verax]

#5

Those of us who want to see something other than the hand-picked CFR candidate can't afford to kick-back 'til then.

[HANG THE EXPENSE]

Giuliani cant win the general electon. CORRECT...

[Vaquero]

I don't believe and hope he doesn't, win the Republican nod....I do believe he can and will win in the general election, if given the chance...

I personally, will do everything I can to make sure Giuliani does not win in the primaries.....

[sauropod]

review

[auto power]

Couldn't agree with you more....Go Rudy!

[Verax]

Gingrich made a lot of enemies on the left as Speaker, don't see him ever overcoming that. Need new blood.

[b4its2late]

I think he'll have more trouble winning the nomination than he would have in a general election.....

[deport]

History is an interesting study....... Things change over the course of time and what was the status quo in the past isn't necessarily the status quo of today. One item [the WOT] may well be the driving factor to throw out his so called locked in voter patterns...... we'll see as the primary and general evolves.

[ILikeFriedman]

I didn't vote for Specter (I voted 3rd party), but I would vote for Rudy.

[tcostell]

I agree... I think Rudy probably could win the general election, it's the Republican primary which he will (thankfully) have trouble with.

Personally I think he should be running as a Democrat.

[Jim Noble]

Rove knows this and spoke about it after the 2000 election and adjusted his campaign strategy in the 2004 election accordingly. In 2000 Evangelicals didn’t turn out in their customary numbers and almost cost Bush the election. Rove was determined to change that and said so more than once between 2000 and 2004. In 2004, Rove made it a point to go after the Evangelical vote, including an unprecedented heavy Republican push in the nation’s Black churches. Evangelicals and other Christians responded by getting out and voting for Bush.

All true.

But politics is not static, and it's not December 2004, it's February 2007.

I like Socons. I, personally, am not afraid of a Socon governing majority.

But the bulk of the swing vote, which doesn't really belong to either side, is either appalled by, or terrified of, Dobsonites, Schiavo-savers, and free exercisers.

The fault lies on both sides, but whose "fault" this situation is doesn't matter.

What matters is that the Socon tag on a Presidential candidate in 2008 is poison.

The Rove "permanent majority" strategy assumed two things. First, that he could add in Socon nonvoters (who were the rightmost 10% of Socons) without disturbing existing voters, and, second, that he could recruit and retain those Socons by seeming to promise them things which he and Bush had no intention of delivering. (I don't think the White House's behavior reflects a very high opinion of their new Socon voters)

In my opinion, this strategy is now in ruins. It sufficed to re-elect Bush (which, to be fair, was what Rove was hired to do), but it won't allow forward movement because the "new Socon voter" wants to be paid now, and the old Republican voters won't pay up, because they recognize that their center-right neighbors and leaners will never, never agree to an explicitly Socon President who will deliver the goods.

The people who keep posting pictures of Rudy in drag want to McGovernize first the process, then the party.

I don't think they are as numerous, or as active, as they seem to feel they are. But we'll see in the primaries.

That's why, as they say, they play the games.

[goldstategop]

I agree. A lot of moderate Republicans look on religious voters - evangelicals and Catholics like the crazy aunt best locked up in the basement. But the truth is the GOP can't win without them. The drubbing the GOP received last fall is in no small part due to the fact the GOP scorned these voters. And the Mark Foley fallout was damaging in that it looked like the party didn't care about the values important to these voters. By nominating a liberal as its presidential candidate, the GOP would be sending them the same message: get lost. What do you think will happen in November 2008 if they take that message to heart? The GOP simply can't win an election without the Values Voters.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus