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Giuliani Has No Real Chance With GOP Voters . . . or Does He?
The Washington Post ^ | March 4, 2007 | Dan Balz

Posted on 03/04/2007 2:13:52 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

The 2008 presidential campaign is just weeks old, but already an article of faith within the Republican Party -- the belief that no politician who favors abortion rights and gay rights can win the GOP nomination -- is being challenged by the candidacy of former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

...."This is the first Republican presidential primary since Sept. 11," said Ed Gillespie, ... "Rudy Giuliani is a candidate who can clearly test the proposition that a Republican who is more moderate on social issues can capture the nomination. He's testing it now."

....Whit Ayres, a Georgia-based Republican pollster, said he has been struck by the number of conservatives he has encountered who disagree with Giuliani on abortion or gay rights but are still attracted to him as a possible Republican nominee. ....

"It truly is the question in Republican presidential politics at the moment," Ayres said. "There are a lot of people with a more traditional view who think that his leading in the polls is just a mirage and that he has no real chance. I don't believe that. I think there's more to this than simply name ID. "

...A veteran Republican strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly assess the situation, said he is among those who long believed that a Republican with Giuliani's profile would have no chance. He still believes the former mayor faces significant obstacles but said the odds of Giuliani winning the nomination are not as remote as they once seemed.

He gave three reasons: the absence of a strong, traditional conservative in the GOP field; continuing antipathy among many social and religious conservatives toward McCain; and the prospect of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) becoming the next president.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: duncanhunter; election; giuliani; politics
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To: EQAndyBuzz
What a dilemma. If a moderate is nominated Conservatives stay home. If a Conservative is nominated, moderates will vote Democrat.

There is a way out of it. Have the moderate accompanied by a young, conservative VP, like Michael Steele, who can conceivably run for President in 2016. Ensure also that the platform at the convention is conservative. Finally, realise that politics does involve compromise, even under the best of circumstances.

Regards, Ivan

41 posted on 03/04/2007 3:07:59 AM PST by MadIvan (I aim to misbehave.)
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To: familyop
IMO, many "anti-Hillary voters," if faced with a choice between Giuliani and a Democrat, won't vote for either. Most of the "Independents" and "Reagan Democrats" you're referring to voted for Hillary during the '90s.

With Hillary's negatives so high, she will only get votes that are against our nominee.

42 posted on 03/04/2007 3:08:58 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: EQAndyBuzz

"If a Conservative is nominated, moderates will vote Democrat."

Nope. Not by their history. Conservatives in Congress won in most cases, it was the East Coast liberals who lost overall.

Nominate a RINO, lose.


43 posted on 03/04/2007 3:09:46 AM PST by narses ("Freedom is about authority." - Rudolph Giuliani)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Of course he does. If he didn't, the attacks on him would not be so nasty and immature.


44 posted on 03/04/2007 3:09:53 AM PST by James Ewell Brown Stuart (I support the President and the war on terror!)
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To: MadIvan
Finally, realise that politics does involve compromise, even under the best of circumstances.

As it always has.

45 posted on 03/04/2007 3:10:04 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife; MadIvan
Finally, realise that politics does involve compromise, even under the best of circumstances.
When that was tried over the moral issue of slavery, it gave us the Civil War.
46 posted on 03/04/2007 3:12:02 AM PST by narses ("Freedom is about authority." - Rudolph Giuliani)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
I don't agree. I see Giuliani picking up a strong Republican following along with Independents, anti-Hillary voters and Reagan Democrats.

It's possible that he might pick up enough middle of the road independents and right leaning liberals to offset what he'll lose from groups such as conservative evangelicals. I still wouldn't want to place my bet on gaining enough new base to offset lost base.

47 posted on 03/04/2007 3:14:14 AM PST by highlander_UW (I don't know what my future holds, but I know Who holds my future)
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To: narses; Cincinatus' Wife
When that was tried over the moral issue of slavery, it gave us the Civil War.

Slavery was a rare issue that had no gradations; one was either for it or against it. That said, even Lincoln compromised on that great moral issue - the Emancipation Proclamation only covered the states which had seceded, not the states that were still in the Union that still retained the institution.

Politics is a dirty, greasy business - as it so happens when people with colliding interests have to work with each other.

Ivan

48 posted on 03/04/2007 3:14:46 AM PST by MadIvan (I aim to misbehave.)
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To: narses
.....Conservatives in Congress won in most cases...

Local elections!!!!!

People need to rally voters in their districts and in their states.

If this election pulls a lot of people to the polls (as I believe it will) local ballots better be ready to reflect conservative issues so they can capitalize on the nominee's coattails.

49 posted on 03/04/2007 3:15:38 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: highlander_UW
I still wouldn't want to place my bet on gaining enough new base to offset lost base.

That depends, in part on the Democrat nominee. If it's Obama, that is a genuine concern, If it's Gore, he is so steeped in moonbattery, moderates will run screaming from him.

Regards, Ivan

50 posted on 03/04/2007 3:15:55 AM PST by MadIvan (I aim to misbehave.)
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To: MadIvan

"Slavery was a rare issue that had no gradations; one was either for it or against it."

Just like abortion. At least imho.


51 posted on 03/04/2007 3:16:26 AM PST by narses ("Freedom is about authority." - Rudolph Giuliani)
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To: narses
Just like abortion. At least imho.

Oh? Are you against it in the case of saving the life of the mother or in cases of rape and incest?

Ivan

52 posted on 03/04/2007 3:17:44 AM PST by MadIvan (I aim to misbehave.)
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To: narses

I'm sure you'll agree that compromise went into our Constitution.


53 posted on 03/04/2007 3:18:27 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Never in my worst nightmares would I believe Republicans, much less FReepers, would willingly go along with the wholesale slaughter of our helpless unborn generations. Shameful. May God forgive us.


54 posted on 03/04/2007 3:20:33 AM PST by Jim Robinson
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Sometimes compromise makes a lot of sense. During the Constitutional convention, there was a big dilemma - should representation in the legislative branch be based on population, or equal votes for each state? They resolved this by having the House based on population, the Senate, on equality between states. This was a neat resolution to the dilemma - and yes, involved great men meeting in the middle.

Regards, Ivan

55 posted on 03/04/2007 3:21:32 AM PST by MadIvan (I aim to misbehave.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
The last time there was such blind loyalty to a left winger was during and after BJ Clinton until Rudy.
WHY?
56 posted on 03/04/2007 3:22:27 AM PST by HuntsvilleTxVeteran (Vote for RINOS, lose and complain by sending a self-abused stomped elephant.)
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To: MadIvan

In genuine cases of maternal life threatening complications (ectopic pregnancies, as an example), clearly you have a moral right to self-defense - one life threatening another always invokes that right. Otherwise, abortion is always a moral wrong. Rape and incest are crimes that deserve severe punishment, but not death to the innocent child.


57 posted on 03/04/2007 3:23:54 AM PST by narses ("Freedom is about authority." - Rudolph Giuliani)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I am a social conservative but would support Guliani because of his strong leadership in the fight on terror. I would justify it by saying that the primary attribute of our next President must be leadership due to extreme challenges that this country faces in the War on Terror and Guliani is the strongest leader of any candidate that is running. Besides in the bast 30 years 3 republican Presidents have failed to fix or push any of the social conservative causes anyway all they have managed to do is stem the tide. The slippery slope looms every closer.


58 posted on 03/04/2007 3:24:39 AM PST by tomnbeverly (I say red states should just secede, lets get it over with.)
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To: Jim Robinson

Thank you.


59 posted on 03/04/2007 3:24:41 AM PST by narses ("Freedom is about authority." - Rudolph Giuliani)
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To: Jim Robinson
Never in my worst nightmares would I believe Republicans, much less FReepers, would willingly go along with the wholesale slaughter of our helpless unborn generations. Shameful. May God forgive us.

That's not what she said. It's not the goals we disagree on, it's the means. Getting rid of abortion is going to require having appropriate justices in the Supreme Court to overturn Roe vs. Wade, a promise which Rudy has made, and can be made to stick to - but following that, it will, by the provisions of the Tenth Amendment, follow state by state referenda. That means there will need to be a consensus from below to get rid of it - the first part is easy, the second part, the polling data indicates, is incomplete. People will not be persuaded of the wrongs of abortion by being called apostates for lacking certainty on the issue.

Ivan

60 posted on 03/04/2007 3:25:10 AM PST by MadIvan (I aim to misbehave.)
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