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Giuliani Has No Real Chance With GOP Voters . . . or Does He?
The Washington Post ^ | March 4, 2007 | Dan Balz

Posted on 03/04/2007 2:13:52 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

The 2008 presidential campaign is just weeks old, but already an article of faith within the Republican Party -- the belief that no politician who favors abortion rights and gay rights can win the GOP nomination -- is being challenged by the candidacy of former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

...."This is the first Republican presidential primary since Sept. 11," said Ed Gillespie, ... "Rudy Giuliani is a candidate who can clearly test the proposition that a Republican who is more moderate on social issues can capture the nomination. He's testing it now."

....Whit Ayres, a Georgia-based Republican pollster, said he has been struck by the number of conservatives he has encountered who disagree with Giuliani on abortion or gay rights but are still attracted to him as a possible Republican nominee. ....

"It truly is the question in Republican presidential politics at the moment," Ayres said. "There are a lot of people with a more traditional view who think that his leading in the polls is just a mirage and that he has no real chance. I don't believe that. I think there's more to this than simply name ID. "

...A veteran Republican strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly assess the situation, said he is among those who long believed that a Republican with Giuliani's profile would have no chance. He still believes the former mayor faces significant obstacles but said the odds of Giuliani winning the nomination are not as remote as they once seemed.

He gave three reasons: the absence of a strong, traditional conservative in the GOP field; continuing antipathy among many social and religious conservatives toward McCain; and the prospect of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) becoming the next president.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: duncanhunter; election; giuliani; politics
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To: Cincinatus' Wife; Carolinamom
If you're saying I'm an intolerant person because I'm pro-life and can't fathom voting for someone who isn't.....then so be it.

I'm in good company with many at FR who are like minded, the webmaster included.

There was a day when most folks understood the absolute wrongness of aborting a baby....it was a given.

Jim Robinson has stated very clearly what this site is about...

..and no amount of obfuscation/spinning/ word twisting is going to change this.

Your promotion of Guiliani is tiresome to me.....and many others, I'm sure.

I will never vote for a pro-abortion candidate....bottom line.

And, FWIW to you and yours, I think many of you are breaking Jim Robinson's heart.

I, for one, never expected some Freepers-( of whom I once esteemed)- to make such unconscionable choices and spit out such hurting, damning words.

261 posted on 03/05/2007 8:31:00 AM PST by Guenevere (Duncan Hunter for President....2008!...)
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To: Jim Noble
Overturning Roe v. Wade is necessary, but it will not stop a single abortion.

It might stop a few, or at least cause a few women to consider the decision to abort a pregnancy, but in general, I agree with what you're saying here.

"Getting rid of abortion" will require legislation in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the territories - and without a massive and unprecedented change in public opinion, it will never happen.

I completely agree with this. You could say the same thing regarding gay marriage. Neither abortion nor homosexuality are issues that will be solved by legislation or court rulings. I believe that neither should be made more accessible or legitimized by new or changed laws or court rulings, and would love to hear a candidate with a similar opinion.

That leaves us with the rest of Guliani's positions - gun control, CFR, open borders, etc., which I consider to be substantially different from traditional conservative positions. I think it is still too early to subscribe to the "he's the only one with a chance to defeat Hillary" point of view.

262 posted on 03/05/2007 8:36:28 AM PST by Hat-Trick (Do you trust a government that cannot trust you with guns?)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

IF he runs on an agressive WoT and reforming the Federal Government, then MAYBE I'll vote for him. But he ain't runnin' that way, so I ain't votin' for him.


263 posted on 03/05/2007 8:43:05 AM PST by Little Ray
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To: Guenevere
You'd do well to re-read my post to you, Guenevere. Nowhere in it did I accuse you of being 'intolerant'. Nowhere in there did I even mention the name of a candidate.

I resent your assuming that I did either of those things, and if you do re-read it, you will see that I called for all of us to be civil.

(As the mother of 5 children, my bone fides for being pro-life is obvious, and my 12 grandchildren are proof that my children also share that belief.)

264 posted on 03/05/2007 8:48:22 AM PST by Carolinamom (Whatever you voted for, you did not vote for failure -- President Bush SOTU)
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To: narses
Clinton caused the 1994 GOP Revolution. It was worth it. Ending a 40 year LOCK on the Congress was absolutely worth it.

Wow. So you believe that Hillary as a CinC, in this time of war, would be worth it because Republicans could win back Congress?

265 posted on 03/05/2007 8:58:01 AM PST by Rex Anderson
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To: Carolinamom
I addressed it to Cincinnatus Wife, and included you in the post as you had replied to me as well...

Regardless, a vote for Rudy is a vote for pro-abortion.

266 posted on 03/05/2007 9:11:12 AM PST by Guenevere (Duncan Hunter for President....2008!...)
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To: dmw

Explain how, if Rudy is nominated he will help put fatso in the WH? What is your basis for this claim? Polling? Can't be because Rudy beats Hillary in blue States and kills her among independents. Why won't whatever votes he loses among the crybaby purists be more then made up for by Dem, and Ind voters?


267 posted on 03/05/2007 9:31:15 AM PST by Eagles Talon IV
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To: Guenevere
It seems in your haste to state your case you've decided you can define me and my beliefs and those of others on this site.

I refuse to be baited by you and others. You said I called you intolerant. I did not. Stop trying to make yourself out as superior and above reproach.

Argue your positions all you want but don't tell others they can't and/or twist their positions.

268 posted on 03/05/2007 9:34:20 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: WilliamofCarmichael
Since he has yet to declare I suppose he will be keeping the specifics under wraps for awhile yet. That is why the purists are hemorrhaging over what he said 10 years ago and forgetting what he has done for the city on and after 9/11. All they do is cherry pick things that in the contest of todays world are meaningless.
269 posted on 03/05/2007 9:38:05 AM PST by Eagles Talon IV
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To: Guenevere

Me: "You said I called you intolerant. I did not."

In rereading my earlier post I see I did call you intolerant.

I apologize for that. I must have misunderstood your earlier post asking me to leave FR to say such a hurtful thing.

You are tolerant and for that I am grateful.


270 posted on 03/05/2007 9:40:20 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Eagles Talon IV
You actually believe that Rudy is going to get votes from dems? Think of all the women and blacks who are going to be thrilled to vote for Hillary. You are dreaming.

If Rudy loses a good portion of the socon's vote, and he will, he doesn't stand a snow ball chance in you know where to win the election. Might as well just hand it over to Hillary and wait for your letter from President Rodman thanking you for your support.

I am getting the distinct impression from you Rudyites that you think Rudy is gonna do just fine by writing us off. I'm sure that's a winning strategy!
271 posted on 03/05/2007 9:45:29 AM PST by dmw (Aren't you glad you use common sense, don't you wish everybody did?)
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To: dmw
Think of all the women and blacks who are going to be thrilled to vote for Hillary.

Are you calling women and blacks stupid?

272 posted on 03/05/2007 10:58:03 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Eagles Talon IV; LS; joesbucks

My question is will you vote for Giulliani if he is the nominee.
***Below is my standard response to that standard false dilemma question. I find myself wondering why there are a lot of freepers pushing for a solib candidate on this socon website. Not that you're one of them, if you're willing to vote for Hunter in the primaries. If a rudy supporter answers my false dilemma, I'll answer theirs.


Hypothetical to answer your hypothetical. Both sides losing to Hillary.

The solib republican splits the base. The MSM turns on him the moment he is nominated. Hillary wins. Republican party is split.

The socon republican wins the nomination, loses to hildebeast in a tough fight. Republicans are united against the hillary presidency.

Which candidate is best for the republican party?




So there is the Lose-lose false dilemma, and now there's even a new win-win false dilemma hypothetical introduced by freeper joesbucks.

What if Duncan should win pres by (obviously) relying on the socon base? What if Rudy should win pres by ignoring the socon base? Which is better for the republican party?



http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1794672/posts

To: LS
The socons are in a unique situation. It does appear Rudy may be able to be elected without 100% of their support. Some of the wise ones are making sure they will have access in his administration. For the others, the Bat Phone currently between the White House and their chapels/offices will be disconnected if Rudy takes up residence.
Rudy basically doesn't even acknowledge them, despite the sabre rattling. I sort of wonder if he'll even ask to sit down with some of the more vocal of them. As long as his support remains strong, I doubt he will. And Dobson et al will start finding themselves more isolated than if Maddy O'Hare got elected.


171 posted on 03/03/2007 8:49:50 PM PST by joesbucks
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273 posted on 03/05/2007 11:16:32 AM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter just needs one Rudy G Campaign Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVBtPIrEleM)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

"Are you calling women and blacks stupid?"

I debated whether or not to even respond to your ridiculous question. There was no such comment made by me, nor was it implied. You asking me a question like that only reveals the way you think, so don't assume everyone else here does as well.


274 posted on 03/05/2007 11:22:06 AM PST by dmw (Aren't you glad you use common sense, don't you wish everybody did?)
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To: Guenevere

I stand amazed at the man's patience!

So am I. At what point does that patience become unhealthy for Free Republic or the republican party?


275 posted on 03/05/2007 11:23:28 AM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter just needs one Rudy G Campaign Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVBtPIrEleM)
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To: dmw
In the future you might define which women and which blacks you are speaking about or you will be misunderstood and perhaps labeled as categorizing people.
276 posted on 03/05/2007 11:26:00 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: JHBowden

It really isn't about advancing conservatism with a lot of these clowns-- they just want to *feel* angrier-than-thou.
***That's an amazing statement with quite a bit of gall in it. We have a candidate who comes within 1% of the super-duper-electable RINO in Spartanburg, beats the other RINO in his own home state of Arizona in another straw poll, has 10 months to gain primary votes and name recognition, and that's what we're doing. It really is interesting to see a solib candidate being pushed onto socons on a socon website. Methinks the clown doth protest too much.


277 posted on 03/05/2007 11:27:04 AM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter just needs one Rudy G Campaign Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVBtPIrEleM)
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To: Guenevere

And, FWIW to you and yours, I think many of you are breaking Jim Robinson's heart. I, for one, never expected some Freepers-( of whom I once esteemed)- to make such unconscionable choices and spit out such hurting, damning words.
***I didn't see it coming either. I will be praying for JimRob, Free Republic, and my candidate. God has blessed us and this is an interesting time of testing.


278 posted on 03/05/2007 11:30:13 AM PST by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter just needs one Rudy G Campaign Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVBtPIrEleM)
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To: dmw
I'm starting to believe the fringe right is as loony as the fringe left.

I don't believe, I KNOW that Rudy, if nominated will get way more Ind and Democrat votes then Gingrich or McCain. The sad thing is that those like you will (seemingly) hand the presidency to the libs merely to stand on a principle which in normal times is admirable but in these times is simply suicidal.
279 posted on 03/05/2007 11:34:20 AM PST by Eagles Talon IV
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To: Kevmo
"The socon republican wins the nomination, loses to hildebeast in a tough fight. Republicans are united against the hillary presidency."

Regardless of who is nominated, Republicans and conservatives will unite against a hildebeast presidency should she win. BTW, she has amazingly high negatives so what makes you so sure she even gets the nomination? What is the liberal media going to turn on Rudy about? Will they attack him for being too liberal? Not tough enough on gays? Certainly not his opposition to sealing the borders (I haven't actually heard anything like this but have seen it here.) Being tough on terror? What? The fact is the media will attack whomever the Rep nominee is. Rudy is a harder target to pin down.

280 posted on 03/05/2007 11:43:19 AM PST by Eagles Talon IV
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