Posted on 03/02/2007 7:44:06 PM PST by Kitten Festival
Hugo Chavez’s power equation is based upon two main components: resources and strategy. The resource side of the equation has been based in oil income. For the last five years this income has been of the order of $175 billion, a good portion of which has been utilized by Chavez to build a global alliance against what he calls “the empire”, the U.S.
The strategy component has been largely provided by three main advisers: Luis Miquilena, his early mentor, who convinced him to run for president and was the brain behind the manipulations of 1999 and 2000 that actually converted a democratic Venezuela into an authoritarian state; Jose Vicente Rangel, his main political operator, who kept the Venezuelan opposition essentially fragmented; and Fidel Castro, who has guided him along the path to convert Venezuela into a socialist state and to transform the obscure Hugo Chavez of the 1990’s into the current leader of the socialist/communist camp in Latin America.
For about five years this equation worked well, with both components on the rise. Since his electoral victory in December 2006 Chavez has gone into a ruling mode beyond simple strategic action, into the realms of what some authors such as James Jasper ("Getting your Way," The University of Chicago Press, 2006) call "instrumental action." Whereas strategic action in politics is the ability to persuade or the ability to manipulate others to do what you want, instrumental action is the imposition of your will by sheer brute force, treating people like if they were cattle. The style of Hugo Chavez has started to look closer to that of Kim Jong Il or Robert Mugabe than to Alvaro Uribe's or Lula da Silva's.
(Excerpt) Read more at venezuelatoday.net ...
Good analysis. Well worth the read.
Hugo bought his support, but the coffers are running dry.
Guessing that Hugo will crash and burn in the future. Even the most resource wealthy country can't survive if they don't manage their resources properly. Example: Russia.
Might not be a good thing for the US since there will be less oil available in the market. May be painful until the "transition" is complete.
Not an expert.
The Big Giant Head is losing it...
People were writng optimistic twaddle like this about Castro's regime, 5 years into his reign, as I recall, and here we are 50 years later and Castro's still there.
And North Korea keeps on ticking... while the people suffer.
And NK don't have any resources except for nukes and extortion.
Yea and Cuba a once beautiful Island Pardise is now a poverty stricken sewer. Castro got his wish of a socialist dictartors sic' workers paradise.
From CIA World Factbook
Export partners: US 50.9%, Netherlands Antilles 7.2%, Canada 2.4% (2005)
Import partners: US 31.6%, Colombia 11%, Brazil 9.1%, Mexico 6.9% (2005)
Bump for later reading
And it will undoubtedly be bloody.
** At this moment there are serious food shortages in Venezuela as he has increased government control over production and established unrealistic prices for foodstuffs. Inflation in the food sector is running at 36% for the year. At the same time, unemployment and inflation rates are the largest in Latin America. In the hemispheric scene, the Caribbean states are starting to feel that Chavez is mostly talk, as he is lagging in his promises to supply them with cheap oil while Latin presidents, Kirchner, Morales and Ortega, impatiently get in line to ask the rewards for their political "loyalty." **
Hmmm... a tad predictable, however the shortages and massive inflation manifested much sooner than expected. Chavez's brand of Communism isn't a slow bleed, he's gone ahead and cut a major artery.
** The results are inevitable. The 2007 Venezuelan budget shows a pronounced fiscal deficit, the same as last year’s. This gap can only be closed through new national debt. Accordingly, Petroleos de Venezuela, the Venezuelan state-owned oil company is currently in the market for a jumbo loan of some US$8 billion. Chavez is forcing the oil company to become the borrower for the money that he needs. Populist governments once did this to Pemex, the Mexican company, leading to its financial collapse. **
Anyone want to bet that a major American or British bank will give them the money? I hear BOA is looking for business...
In all seriousness, I don't see the US denying Chavez access to loans from US banks if that is what he pursues. Sure, he'll probably default, but that's the banks problem right up until they get the US government to bail them out which is probably part of their model anyways. I mean, what's BOA thinking with their "finance illegals" program?
Anyway, I don't see the government as willing to blow off Venezuela for their oil imports. We can still sap resources from this fool before he implodes, and keeping relations open may, slime chance though it may be, help us build a new relationship with the poor fool who steps into office over the dogs knawing at Chavez's rotting corpse. Just sayin'...
Excellent in-depth analysis. I had been wondering how long he could go before his ignorance of market forces caught up with him. Thanks for posting.
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