Throw history out the window (2008 presidential race)

MSNBC/National Journal ^ | February 27, 2007 | Charlie Cook

[2ndDivisionVet]

Just as baseball fans tend to be hooked on statistics -- and the more arcane the better -- political aficionados often look to historical precedents and analogous situations for clues of future events, whether truly applicable or not.

All in all, it's not a bad thing, as long as one does not become a prisoner of history. But this presidential campaign might be so different that many past patterns will not apply or might be terribly misleading.

Over the last 90 years, only two sitting U.S. senators have won the presidency -- Warren G. Harding in 1920 and John F. Kennedy in 1960. The New York Times recently pointed out that the last two former mayors elected were Grover Cleveland in 1884 and Calvin Coolidge in 1924. No woman, black or Mormon has ever even won a party nomination. Furthermore, no Arizonan has won the presidency nor has anyone over 70 won a first term.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Mr.Cook evaluates the declared and possible GOP candidates in this column.

[Reagan Man]

Mr.Cook? Hmmm.

>>>>The more I think about the 2008 election, the more I suspect it will be driven by circumstances as much as personality.

Well so far the GOP side of the nomination process is shaping up to be more of a liberal pop culture campaign effort, then it has anything to do with conservatism.

[Names Ash Housewares]

Sure seems to bug a lot of people that the outcome is not known yet. LOL

[tkathy]

Too bad the republicans don't have a divorced, former democrat, former supporter of abortion, long time Hollywood movie star to run for POTUS. The sociocons would be horrified.

[centurion316]

I had a few beers with Charlie the other night. Here's what he had to say:

The Democrat nomination boils down to three, Hillary, Obama, and Edwards with Hillary the best funded, best organized, and best disciplined. Her own party now thinks that she can win the election, a change from their opinion prior to the mid term elections. A "Bill Clinton Moment" could change the equation overnight.

The Republican nomination is also a race of three, Rudy, McCain and Romney. He thinks that Mitt Romney is the smartest, most articulate, most "Presidential" of all the candidates, but hard to tell how the Mormom thing will play. His standard joke line is that he will win the Tour de France before Guliani wins the Republican nomination (Charlie doesn't miss many meals). I guess he'll be dining on a steady diet of crow if Rudy pulls it out.

My own take is that the press fears Romney and is trying to take him out early. They probably have lots of dirt on Guliani and McCain and figure they can stomp on them later.

[Ultra Sonic 007]

Join the "Duncan Hunter for 08'" ping list!

[CindyDawg]

I don't think Al is out and all the conservatives aren't in the house yet.

[cripplecreek]

Despite the media fascination with their pets, this may not turn out to be the American idol contest they hope for.

[sitetest]

"The New York Times recently pointed out that the last two former mayors elected were Grover Cleveland in 1884 and Calvin Coolidge in 1924."

And President Cleveland was Governor of New York after he was Mayor of Buffalo.

And President Coolidge succeeded to office after the death of Warren Harding, and thus held the office of Vice President.

[william clark]

An excellent piece that affirms various points I've been trying to make to those who parrot assorted mantras that are based on the assumption that the election -- or even the primaries -- will happen under conditions that are a snapshot of this week.

[David Isaac]

There is a precedent for a few very dedicated individuals, "turning the world upside down" (King Geore III).

[william clark]

As I've posted on other threads, I believe that Hillary will ultimately be kicked to the curb after a series of feminist vs. racist events that will have Obama and his supporters going after her, after which she will respond in typical jackbooted manner, which will only further reveal her as the beast she is, thereby eroding her support. When the party realizes the damage she's doing, I believe they'll subtly begin to support Richardson's bid, presenting him as the peacemaker and eventually negotiating a Richardson/Obama ticket.

[Just A Nobody]

The Republican nomination is also a race of three

Way too early for that nonsense.

Just say NO to Rudy Mc Romney!!!

[Just A Nobody]

Love your tag line.

[TSchmereL]

If I had to predict which party will win the presidency I would first need to know . . . how many pairs of boots are in Iraq and how the war is going. . . . If Iraq is roughly where we are now or, God forbid, worse, it will be very tough for Republicans to hold onto the White House, regardless of who the nominees are. If it is going appreciably better, it will likely be more of a fair fight.

I agree with that assessment.

[Valin]

Who?

Just kidding

[proudpapa]

"My own take is that the press fears Romney and is trying to take him out early."

Really?

Why would the press/democrats fear a New England Rino who if nominated, would split the party right down the middle???

[Gritty]

[Churchillspirit]

Bump.

[George W. Bush]

My own take is that the press fears Romney and is trying to take him out early. They probably have lots of dirt on Guliani and McCain and figure they can stomp on them later.

Rumors have come out of the Xlinton camp that Romney is the GOP nominee they fear most. He is pretty wholesome, kind of an anti-Xlinton personality. Julie and McStain are far more vulnerable.

The GOP's worst nightmare is Richardson. With his solid NRA standing, he'd destroy a Rudi in the South.