Posted on 02/26/2007 11:02:51 AM PST by lizol
Russian Threat Convinces Poland and the Czech Republic
// Eastern Europe Opens Its Doors to US Missile Defense System
Washington has again confirmed its desire to establish bases in Eastern Europe as part of its missile defense system. In response, the Russian military has threatened to aim rockets at US facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic. American officials insist that the missile defense system is necessary for defense against Iran and North Korea, but Washington's plans are attracting criticism not only from Moscow but from Berlin and London as well. In Poland and the Czech Republic, however, threatening rumblings from Moscow have only increased support for the expansion of the system. The USA is Coming
American officials are still attempting to calm the scandal that has erupted recently around US plans to establish links in the country's missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. In Moscow last week, the US president's national security advisor, Stephen Hadley, met with Russian politicians, including deputy prime ministers Dmitry Medvedev and Igor Ivanov, National Security Council secretary Igor Ivanov, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "Despite our differences of opinion, we can speak openly and work constructively," Mr. Hadley assured journalists with a smile, while Igor Ivanov replied, "that does not mean that there is no cloud over our relations."
At the same time in New York, US Missile Defense Agency director Lieutenant General Henry Obering and assistant secretary of state for European affairs Daniel Fried held a press conference to explain the idea behind the missile defense system to the foreign media. The diplomat and the general both stressed that the defense system that is to be deployed at the Russian border is not aimed at Russia, but they acknowledged that Washington is concerned by the nervous reaction from Moscow. General Obering and Mr. Fried especially complained about Russian Strategic Missile Forces commander Nikolai Solovtsov, who has announced that Russian missiles could potentially be directed at targets among US missile defense system facilities in Poland or the Czech Republic. "We were surprised by those remarks and frankly, found them both incomprehensible and negative," said Mr. Fried. General Obering, a former fighter pilot, repeated his assurance that the expansion of the American missile defense system is not aimed at Russia. "The radar that we were putting there…is designed against the Middle Eastern threat, not against the Russian threat. With the radar that we have there that we have proposed, it is a very narrow beam radar…so even if we wanted to try to track Russian missiles with that radar, we could only track a very, very small percentage of those missiles. And even if we could, passing that information off and having an interceptor try to intercept the Russian missile, we can't do it. The interceptors that we would place in Europe are not fast enough to catch the Russian ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles]."
General Obering explained that the current phase of expansion of the US system has already begun and will last until 2013. According to him, the system already includes facilities located in North America, Western Europe, and the Far East, which gives America the ability to cover a significant portion of Russian territory (from the border with Belarus and the Kola Peninsula to Yamal and Novaya Zemlya in the north, all of eastern Siberia, and the far east). If Poland and the Czech Republic agree to the expansion of the system on their territory, by 2013 the American system's capabilities will have increased significantly.
General Obering and Mr. Fried said several times that the plans will go forward only if Poland and the Czech Republic agree. Given the certainty with which the head of the Missile Defense Agency talked about financing for the plan (to the tune of $3.5 billion over six years), little doubt remains that Eastern Europe will give its consent.
President Bush is personally taking great care to ensure that no problems arise. On Saturday, the office of Polish president Lech Kaczynski confirmed that George Bush intends to visit Poland in June. According to the Polish newspaper Dzennik, which quoted sources in the president's inner circle, Mr. Bush will personally explain to the Poles the necessity of establishing American missile defense facilities in the country. The Czech media, relying on unofficial information from their Foreign Ministry, reported on Saturday that Prague is also a likely stop for the US president on his summer tour of Europe. Both the Polish and the Czech media are following the story closely.
In the opinion of experts in both countries, no amount of pressure from Russia will change the situation. The only possibility is that Moscow and Washington could come to some kind of military or political compromise. A majority of politicians in Poland and the Czech Republic support America's plans, and the warnings issuing from Moscow are seen as yet another attempt by Russia to return wayward nations in the region to the fold and are only strengthening the countries' independent resolve. Czech President Vaclav Klaus, who is known to be more skeptical about missile defense systems than Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, has proposed to discuss the issue during his upcoming official visits to the US and Russia. Ten days from now, he will meet in Washington with vice-president Dick Cheney, and in April he has been invited by President Putin to visit Moscow. According to the Czech ambassador to Russia, Czech former defense minister Miroslav Kostelka, Vladimir Putin and Vaclav Klaus "are sufficiently pragmatic politicians to come to an understanding and to avoid allowing the matter at hand to become the key to the further evolution of relations between the two countries."
According to a report in the Prague newspaper Dnes, President Klaus will not leave Dick Cheney empty-handed: in exchange for Prague's loyalty, the US is prepared to offer several economic incentives. Warsaw's demands on Washington are more concrete: in return for Poland's consent to host bases on its territory, it wants Patriot missiles in defense against possible threats from its large neighbor to the east. On Friday, the Polish Foreign Ministry officially presented the US ambassador in Warsaw with documents agreeing to begin talks about establishing the bases.
Meanwhile, the expansion of the US missile defense system in Eastern Europe is causing some concern in Western Europe. According to the British journal The Economist, British Prime Minister Tony Blair recently suggested to George Bush that the American bases and radar facilities be established not in the countries of Central Europe but in Britain, where a similar facility already exists. Mr. Blair's press secretary confirmed the offer.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was less generous in his remarks. In an interview with the newspaper Handelsblatt, he said that before it expands its system to include bases in Eastern Europe, the US should hold talks with Moscow, "because these facilities are located very close to Russia." The German minister also cast doubt on the American view that the missile defense system in Eastern Europe is essential protection against Iran. "If we look at the map and think about the distance that Iranian rockets are capable of flying and the level of weaponry in the country, all of [America's arguments] appear fairly dubious." He was supported by German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung, who said that establishing bases in Eastern Europe could "disrupt the stability of Europe and lead to a split" and recommended that the issue at least be discussed between Russia and NATO.
However, it is not likely that the objections from London and Berlin will put a hitch in America's plans to expand its missile defense system. Washington has kept its comments to a minimum on the British and German statements, and it has also not reacted to speculation from the European press that bases could be established in Kiev and Bucharest if Warsaw and Prague are uncooperative. American national security advisor Stephen Hadley, for example, said in Moscow that he knew nothing about any such plans.
God bless the Poles! (and the Czechs!)
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