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Posted on 02/20/2007 5:37:09 AM PST by areafiftyone
WASHINGTON – Morris Udall. Dick Gephardt. John Kasich. Bob Dornan. Jack Kemp. James Garfield. Dennis Kucinich.
What these gentlemen have in common – other than having all served in the House of Representatives – is that each ran for the White House while he was still a congressman. Only one of them made it.
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And he got shot.
Now that Duncan Hunter has taken the plunge for the Republican presidential nomination official, the Alpine congressman may soon encounter the peculiar challenges that face a sitting House member who wants to be president.
“Many House members feel the urge (to run) in spite of their public invisibility, lack of national stature and limited access to campaign funds,” said Thomas Mann, a presidential campaign scholar at the Brookings Institution. “History suggests they should resist.”
Be certain that Hunter, a former House Armed Services Committee chairman, has thought of all this. But he's betting that his conservative stands on defense matters, international trade and border enforcement will distinguish him from other Republican candidates now hogging the headlines, including a Sept. 11 hero (former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani) and a war hero (Arizona Sen. John McCain).
Plenty of sitting House members have aimed for the Oval office, some more successfully than others.
Morris Udall, the Democratic congressman from Arizona, may have run the most credible campaign in recent decades: He narrowly lost to Jimmy Carter in the 1976 presidential primaries. Experts attribute his success in part to his stature in the House, his famous sense of humor and his engaging, self-deprecating manner.
“He didn't come across as either arrogant or as a lightweight,” said David Rhode, a political science professor at Duke University. “He was a skilled politician, but he wasn't too full of himself. With just a little more luck, he might have been president.”
Having clout in the House offers no guarantee. Most people have probably heard of Richard Gephardt, the former House Democratic leader who tried twice to win his party's nomination. He was widely respected in Congress, had strong ties to key party constituencies and performed well in debates, but lost the nominations in 1988 and 2004.
The only sitting House member ever to win the presidency was James Garfield. Back in 1880, he was the Republican leader of the House, in a day when candidates were chosen within the party. Garfield became the dark-horse candidate when the Republican convention became deadlocked, and he won the White House in 1881.
Two months after his inauguration, he was assassinated by a disgruntled lawyer in a Washington, D.C., train station. Since Garfield's time, the nominating process has become public and the financial demands are enormous, requiring candidates to lure early “seed” money that might give their campaigns stature. While Hunter raised more than $1 million for each of his last two congressional campaigns, being little known outside his district will make it difficult to attract the $50 million to $100 million each presidential candidate may need to be a serious contender.
“Money is very important in the year before the primary, because it's used to judge the viability of a candidate,” said Stephen Wayne, a presidential scholar at Georgetown University. “He's going to have a tough time, because financial backers like to get behind people who have a chance.”
John Anderson, an Illinois congressman who ran for the Republican nomination in 1980, was in a situation that resembles Hunter's, experts say. But although only a third-tier candidate, he ran second to George Bush Sr. in the Massachusetts primary and second to Ronald Reagan in Vermont. Overnight, he became a household name, though he could not maintain his momentum in later primary states. In the general election, he ran as an independent against Reagan and then-President Jimmy Carter, taking 7 percent of the national vote.
Anderson's presidential campaign spokesman, Mark Bisnow, attributed Anderson's initial success to the campaign's media focus in early-voting states and to worry among conservatives about Reagan's movie-actor status.
“Even though he was one of the most respected congressmen of his day, a person of towering integrity, as articulate as they come and very moderate, nobody knew him outside Washington,” said Bisnow, who wrote a book about the campaign titled “Diary of a Dark Horse.”
“All the attention was showered on the people who were already well-known.”
The list of House members who sought the presidency goes on. There was Jack Kemp, the New York Republican winnowed out during early primary voting in 1988; Bob Dornan, the Orange County Republican who made a brief bid for the nomination in 1994; John Kasich, the Ohio Republican who faced a dozen primary candidates in 2000; and Dennis Kucinich, the Ohio Democrat who placed far behind in almost all primary states in 2004.
Kucinich is running again and he believes national stature will matter less in the 2008 election than in the past.
“This goes beyond your rank in the political firmament,” he said. “This election is going to be about the war, and anyone who wants to be president will have to explain why they voted for the war.”
One thing that dark horses have going for them is that no one expects them to do well. It helps, Wayne said, if such a candidate “can do something in the beginning – like raising lots of money or performing well in New Hampshire or Iowa – something that makes the media and activists say, 'Wow, this person has really surprised us.' ”
“It happened with Jimmy Carter,” Wayne said. “And it happened with Bill Clinton.”
The odds are very much against a modern Representative winning. They have too many votes under their belt that can be distorted by their opponents.
Duncan probably is a great guy, he seems to be. But he needs executive experience, I think, before he moves into the top Executive job in the country. Legislating is important, but it is also much more detail oriented. I fear his (or any Rep's) campaign will get bogged down in the swamp of all his actions as a writer of law, and that is a tough swamp to negotiate.
- Rudy tossed Arafat out of a city sponsored celebrations saying, "I would rather not have someone who has been implicated in the murders of Americans there, if I have the discretion not to have him there”.
- Rudy did the same to Fidel Castro.
- When a Saudi prince donated millions to 9/11 relief efforts and later suggested that United States policy in the Middle East may have been partially responsible for the attacks, Rudy returned the money.
- Rudy refused to meet with racial arsonist Al Sharpton.
- Rudy as mayor was strong on law and order. Rudy said that "government exists above all to keep people safe in their homes and in the streets, not to redistribute income, run a welfare state, or perform social engineering". And Rudy backed this all up by going after both quality-of-life crimes and serious crimes. Total crime went down by some 64 percent during the Giuliani years, and murder went down 67 percent. Auto thefts went down on average about 80,000 per year.
- Rudy supported the police when the police had to enter and deal with Muslims at a mosque.
- Rudy closed down many porn shops across the city and specifically shutdown porn shops in residential neighborhoods.
- Rudy went after both low level and high level drug dealers for the first time in the cities history.
- Rudy had zero tolerance for quality of life crimes such as squeegee extortionists, graffiti vandals, panhandling and public urination.
- Rudy launched a welfare revolution, removing illegal recipients, cutting the rolls by 20% the first year alone and dropping the welfare rolls by 600,000 over the course of his plan.
- Rudy launched a work requirement program for the remaining welfare recipients. the NY Times called it slavery.
- Rudy constantly spoke out against illegitimacy and fatherless families. One of many things that Rudy said on the subject was the following: " If you wanted a social program that would really save these kids, . I guess the social program would be called fatherhood.
" - Rudy objected to affirmative action. Rudy ended the cities set-aside program for minority contractors.
- Rudy rejected the idea of lowering the job requirement standards for minorities and woman. - Rudy said. "it was unfair to expect middle-class kids to work their way through college by holding down jobs and going to classes while exempting students on welfare from working.
" - Rudy reformed the public school system and forced out liberal chancellors who wouldn't install his reforms.
- Rudy tried to privatize 5 of the cities worst public schools.
- Rudy was for school vouchers Rudy said, "The whole notion of choice is really about more freedom for people, rather than being subjugated by a government system that says you have no choice about the education of your child,".
- Rudy fought against public money for an art display that defiled Christ and he fought against other obscene so-called works of art.
- Rudy played hardball with city unions winning concessions from city workers that other mayors had failed to do.
- Rudy strong armed state leaders to merge the cities Housing Police and Transit Police into the NYPD saving the city hundreds of millions. Rudy did this by threatening to fire every housing and transit officer and rehire each as a city cop if legislative leaders did not go along.
- Rudy did the same with the city’s garbageman, many of whom worked only half days because the department was so overstaffed with union jobs. Rudy won $300 million in savings from them by threatening to contract out trash collection to private companies.
- Rudy cut or killed 23 levies and taxes, saving taxpayers $9.8 billion during his terms.
- Rudy cut NYC's top income-tax rate by 20.6%.
- Local NYC taxes on a family of four dropped 23.7% during Rudy's term.
- Rudy cut the commercial-rent tax.
- Rudy cut sales taxes, including taxes on clothing.
- Rudy cut the marriage penalty on taxpaying couples.
- Rudy cut taxes on commercial rents everywhere outside of Manhattan’s major business districts, and various taxes on small businesses and self-employed New Yorkers.
- Rudy's expenditure growth averaged 2.9% annually, while local inflation between January 1994 and December 2001 averaged 3.6%.
- Rudy privatized municipal assets.
- Rudy sold WNYC radio for $20 million, WNYC-TV for $207 million, and NYC's share of the U.N. Plaza Hotel for $85 million.
- Rudy divested the City from the New York Coliseum adding $345 million to city coffers.
- Rudy let the private Central Park Conservancy manage Central Park.
- Rudy cut NYC's hotel tax from 6% to 5%. Consequently, hotel tax revenues increased from $135 million in Fiscal Year 1995 to $239 million in FY 2001.
- When asked if Rudy would raise taxes after 9/11 Rudy said that would be "a dumb, stupid, idiotic, and moronic thing to do.
" - A quote from Rudy on his economic philosophy: “City government should not and cannot create jobs through government planning. The best it can do, and what it has a responsibility to do, is to deal with its own finances first, to create a solid budgetary foundation that allows businesses to move the economy forward on the strength of their energy and ideas. After all, businesses are and have always been the backbone of New York City.
” - Construction permits increased by more than 50% in the city per year during Rudy's terms.
- Tourism increased 50% in the city per year during Rudy's terms.
- City jobs increased by 430,000 to an all time high of 3.72 million during Rudy's terms.
- City personal income increased 50% during Rudy's terms.
- The percentage income that city residence paid in taxes declined from 8.8 to 7.3 percent during Rudy's terms.
- Unemployment in the city went form 10.3% to 5.1% during Rudy's terms.
- Rudy was an outstanding leader during the 9/11 crisis.
- Rudy has been a strong supporting in our WOT including supporting the mission in Iraq.
- Rudy was chosen by Ronald Reagan in 1981 as an Associate Attorney General placing him in the third highest position in the Reagan's DOJ.
- In 1983, Rudy was appointed by Reagan to be U.S. Attorney for the SD of NY. In that position, Rudy amassed 4,152 convictions including the heads of NY's so-called "Five Families". Rudy also prosecuted terrorists and illegal immigrants.
He's running for a future Cabinet position in a Republican administration. No one with 1-2% approval ratings honestly thinks he can win the presidency.
Or the high flying "President John Murtha"
Chesty... you must be shaking your head!
Who has combat experience as an ARMY ranger, and has a son who served in Iraq.
Hardly. John Kerry was a traitor who actively campaigned against his own country during th evienam War.
Yeah, for illegal immigrants and militant gay groups with ties to anti-war communist organizations, but NOT for unborn children and law-abiding gun owners.
McCain was a prisoner of war. He crashed at least two jet aircraft during his service. It hardly qualifies him as a Commander-in-Chief. It does, however, explain his occasional insanity.
When have you seen a politician say "Vote for the OTHER guy I am not worthy?"
Nope, you are right, but during a time of war, i would prefer a conservative candidate with real combat leadership experience as am ARMY ranger like Hunter has over someone who actively avoided military service.
In the RAT primaries that doesn't matter. Now if we could convince him to run third party he might have some significance.
Never, but it wouldn't be a bad idea for Giuliani to say that.
His service is not mentioned much because HE is not mentioned much. I can't help that. Maybe he will get more press and attention later in the campaign. Nobody is denegrating his service that I know of. If he gets the nomination I will vote for him.
NYC Mayor John McClellan ran for President in 1900.
Every single sitting congressman ever nominated by a major political party for President of the United States...
HAS WON!!!!
Everyone will be ready to support Duncan Hunter after he wins the primary. He will be the guy who slew the giants like Giuliani, McCain et. al.. No one will be able to say ANY of those names without also saying Duncan Hunter.
Freepers: Please make your vote for Duncan Hunter heard in this FR Poll. href=http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=170
No black person or female has ever made it, either.
The Media hated Giuliani. He could not be browbeaten by it. You are delusional if you believe the media is behind his strength.
Doesn't matter they had more combat experience than George Bush. If you want to go down that route. Personally I hate them both and love Bush but if you want to go down that route for experience they would have both been more qualified.
This is the definitive reply to this really stupid article.
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