---" and no I don't consider Rudy a liberal so don't say it!... ;)."---
That is a fundamental disagreement with my opinion. I do firmly believe he is a Liberal in the mold of Joe Lieberman, who is also a Liberal.
But the Democrats will win NY. Just a couple of years after 9/11 - when Bush was a hero in NY - he lost in a relative landslide in NY. That's just the way it is, sadly.
Winning in 2008 is going to be dependent on MAXIMIZING base turnout and not getting flanked by a third party. Rudy fails both of these tests. Bush lost Indies and Moderates in both 2000 and 2004 (54 to 45 for Kerry), and won both elections.
Indies are not going to go Republican - especially after eight years of GOP in the White House - in the massive, landslide amounts needed to overcome losing a biting chunk of the base. Especially when you accept the fact that Rudy will be trying to sell them a war they greatly dislike.
That is a fundamental disagreement with my opinion. I do firmly believe he is a Liberal in the mold of Joe Lieberman, who is also a Liberal.
Our fundamental disagreement is productive discussion, and it's ok with me.
But the Democrats will win NY. Just a couple of years after 9/11 - when Bush was a hero in NY - he lost in a relative landslide in NY. That's just the way it is, sadly.
I may have missed it but to what are referring when you say he lost in a landslide?
Winning in 2008 is going to be dependent on MAXIMIZING base turnout and not getting flanked by a third party. Rudy fails both of these tests. Bush lost Indies and Moderates in both 2000 and 2004 (54 to 45 for Kerry), and won both elections.
Base turn out will play a role as it always does, however this isnt any ordinary election. Many like to deny it but this is election for our survival, Islam isnt going away and no Democrat will confront the threat.
We may see many independents and moderates cross over to the Republicans this election. You can call me naive and maybe I am, I know that no one wants to compromise, but sometimes we have to bite the bullet. Rudy isnt going to run around the country confiscating guns, or doing any of the other things some fear he may do. That is just my opinion, and I do believe if we don't win the WOT we aren't going to have to worry about our guns, or anything else we hold near and dear.
Indies are not going to go Republican - especially after eight years of GOP in the White House - in the massive, landslide amounts needed to overcome losing a biting chunk of the base. Especially when you accept the fact that Rudy will be trying to sell them a war they greatly dislike.
Again we disagree, if the war on terror is important to them, they may consider Rudy the right man for the job.