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Axis of Ethanol
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY ^ | 8 Feb 2007 | Staff

Posted on 02/08/2007 7:35:28 PM PST by Kitten Festival

Energy: Could lowly switch grass mow down the petropower tyranny of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez? A U.S.-Brazil ethanol pact signed this week may supply the fuel to do just that.

Chavez's hostile anti-American dictatorship grows worse as his oil earnings pile up. With the U.S. as his best customer, buying about a quarter, or 1.1 million barrels, of Venezuelan crude oil each day, the bitter coda is that every barrel we buy fuels his anti-U.S. actions.

These range from crazed speeches to colonial acquisitions like Bolivia to rogue-state alliances with Iran and Zimbabwe to menacing moves against neighbors like Dominica, Guyana and Colombia with $4 billion in weapons purchases.

High oil prices, low supply and his own expropriations of foreign oil partners in Venezuela only increase Chavez's oil cash and clout. The U.S. has been largely helpless, because it has few alternatives to buying Venezuelan crude.

But a new deal announced with Brazil to pool ethanol technology and produce greater quantities of ethanol in both countries could help. ...

The ultimate aim of the ethanol deal is to create a commodity market. This could give every country in the region alternatives for energy buying. In turn, it will undercut Chavez's monopoly and abusive influence.

Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, who flew to Brazil to iron out the deal, made no secret of that. "Energy has tended to distort the power of some of the states we find to be negative in the world — Venezuela, Iran," said Burns, quoted in the Washington Post. "And so the more we can diversify our energy sources and depend less on oil, the better off we will be."

...this signals an impressive new U.S. diplomatic offensive

(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: brazil; chavez; corn; cornsqueezins; energy; ethanol; hugoping; oil; renewableenergy; switchgrass
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To: LibertarianInExile

see post 118, and lighten up.


121 posted on 02/09/2007 6:00:56 AM PST by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: ME-262
Time for some more Adkins diet books to help the glutted slaughter market.

LOL

122 posted on 02/09/2007 10:00:25 AM PST by XR7
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To: SierraWasp

"Ethanol = Unsustainable, subsidized, food burning, mileage ruining, non-pipelinable, corrosive, caustic, economically backward FRAUD!!!"

As American farmers sell their corn and other ethanol producing crops for ethanol production to be sold at a high premium cost over regular old dirty oil, several situations will happen:

1. The 2nd and 3 rd world countries that depend on our corn and other cereal crops will become Sudans and hot beds of social unrest. America will be blamed for this green arrogance.

2. Corn syrup and other cereal by products will start a wave of inflation as the added costs of these by products impact so many food products.

3. Inflation in the fuel market will happen as the ethanol becomes more expensive each day due to market shortages of the corn and other products.


123 posted on 02/09/2007 10:42:33 AM PST by Grampa Dave (GW has more Honor and Integrity in his little finger than ALL of the losers on the "hate Bush" band)
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To: Grampa Dave
Three excellent points!!!

Especially #2. That corn syrup is in EVERYTHING these days!!!

Although I may seem somewhat of a Luddite on "Alternative Energy," I put it's advocates in the same GovernMental EnvironMental bag with the "Organic Crowd" and the stop exhaling anti-Carbondioxide before we all die crowd!!! (aka Globular Worming crowd)

It really pains me to see conservatives sucking into this GANG-GREEN crappola, driven by fear and loathing, rather than positive commonsense, which is supposed to be the attitude of genuine, authentic consertatives!!!

I know that's JudgeMental, but authentic conservatives never shrink from making adamant and accurate judgements!!!

124 posted on 02/09/2007 11:45:25 AM PST by SierraWasp (Grayout Davis, Gang-Green Schwartzenegger... Recycled Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown!!! Watch for it in 4!!!)
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To: NicknamedBob; Grampa Dave
"A soft answer. I have advisers."

Please tell your advisers that they have mistaken wrath for frustration and disgust, to a great extent, due to having higher expectations of genuine and authentic conservatives, especially here on FR.

Please see my response to Grampa Dave, above and relay that point of view to your advisers as soon as you can, ok??? I think they'll actually understand what I'm stating.

125 posted on 02/09/2007 11:52:51 AM PST by SierraWasp (Grayout Davis, Gang-Green Schwartzenegger... Recycled Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown!!! Watch for it in 4!!!)
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To: Kitten Festival; Alia; livius; proud_yank; Kenny Bunk; Founding Father; chilepepper; Fiddlstix; ...
A Latin American Left Watch ping on thread article and the very fine forum discussion.

This is a challenging article Kitten, I really enjoyed reading it. I want to address the Brazil-U.S.-Venezuela configuration and then go on to make a comment about ethanol, because there has been some lively and spirited discussion here about the wisdom and feasibility of producing it in the U.S. and I have a couple of things to say about that.

Kitten, you know that I have been following the relationships between Hugo Chavez's Venezuela and everyone else and that I have reported I see genuine strains developing between Chavez and his formerly-close neighbors of Brazil, Argentina, and Chile; all of whom I am sure are taking steps to distance themselves from him, now that "the mask is coming off" in Venezuela. I'm not sure that it was ever in Brazil's interest to restrict American access to oil or ethanol technology, so I might not go quite as far on asserting the significance of this agreement as relating to Chavez and oil from the Brazilian perspective. There can be no doubt however, that American anxiety over oil supplies is rising as Chavez's Gleichschaltung proceeds in Venezuela, our interest is easily-defined, and Condi Rice just said so a couple of days ago, and we need go no further after that.

I am struck by the timing and the tone of this agreement, neither of which I believe is an accident. Timing speaks for itself; Iran and Russia have been pursuing oil development policies that are openly designed to limit the supply of cheaply-available oil on world markets and the fact that they are targeting the U.S. in doing so is clear. The Middle East is; well, the Middle East. It is always uncertain. And now you throw in Venezuela and the threat to American oil supplies -- we might say "affordable" oil supplies -- is an immediate and pressing matter to address. But the tone expressed in the public statements between Brazil and the U.S. is something new also. In diplomacy and foreign affairs tone can frequently tell you a lot, and what it says here is that Washington and Sao Paulo see a reason why they should be friends. We are still waiting to see what will happen when the presidents of Chile and Brazil visit Mexico soon, because they will have an opportunity on those occasions to present a pro-business -- read "pro-investment" -- anti-Chavez tone in their public statements. To the degree that this thread article offers us anything in the way of guessing what the tone of those coming declarations will be, it says that we have reason to hope that Chavez will be singled out for criticism. I have been writing that I see an international political realignment in Latin America taking shape to marginalize Chavez and your article's hypothesis fits in with that; but Bachelet's and Lula's coming visits to Mexico will be where we will really see what is going on there.

Now; to move on to ethanol, let me put up a couple of the most basic facts of chemistry. Ethanol is a particular type of alcohol. Alcohol is produced from sugar. Even if you use corn to produce ethanol you must first enhance its sugar content and then in some fashion make that sugar readily available for the distillation and/or extraction process that produces ethanol. And given that individual commodities -- such as high fructose corn syrup, one of corn's most significant products -- have their prices affected by other commodities -- such as sugar in this instance -- which can be used as substitutes, it must be understood that the basic chemistry of the ethanol producing process is every bit as closely attached to sugar as it is to corn, since ethanol is produced from sugar in some fashion.

When treating it as an industry, we should separate the profitablility of producing ethanol for fuel from its necessity. Let me deal with the latter first. The U.S. must strengthen its ability to produce its own energy as a matter of national security. As always; doing that comes down to our dependence on oil. And since the internal combustion engine is here to stay, we must address the supply of fuel to keep American automobiles running. There are no other proposals out there to structurally alter our ability to maintain our motor vehicle fuel supply beyond that of producing ethanol as a gasoline additive. We've got to do it, even if it is a more costly proposal than ethanol proponents suggest, which I am fairly certain is the case.

The profitability of ethanol is a little more complex to address. But; to express it in mathematical language without providing specific figures to demonstrate the argument, the profitability of ethanol is a function of the price of gasoline, which in turn is a function of the price of oil. To put it in the simplest terms possible, if the price of a barrel of oil goes high enough, ethanol becomes profitable. Fluctuations in the price of oil are one of many reasons -- there are other important ones -- why the American ethanol industry has had such a rocky history. Given that the figures presented pro and con have shown such wide variance, I will only go so far as to say that at $30 per barrel oil, ethanol is not profitable and at $50 per barrel it is. Somewhere between those two prices for a barrel of oil ethanol production becomes a successful business enterprise, though exactly where depends upon who is presenting the evidence.

Ethanol's economic viability as it relates to the price of oil is a major issue because the cost of ethanol production is so high that profits are at risk if the price of gasoline, which is what ethanol must be added to, is low enough that using pure gasoline becomes cheaper. Why then, has there been almost no discussion, other than the usual tax break proposals to enhance corporate welfare further, in all the public debate about enhancing ethanol productivity, of lowering the cost of producing it? It's very obvious how that can be done to anyone who understands that the most important price supports for corn and the various products produced from it are primarily aimed to protect one commodity, high fructose corn syrup, the Holy Grail of corporate welfare, whose price is primarily kept safe in the various import restrictions, price supports, and more which taken together constitute the "Sugar Subsidy."

If the U.S. is going to get serious about producing ethanol as a gasoline additive it must remove the Sugar Subsidy. No single act of the federal government could do more to enhance ethanol's profitability, especially now as oil prices have recently fallen. To undertake a huge national investment in ethanol, a large portion of the cost of which will be borne either directly or indirectly by public resources, while simultaneously supporting the price of both sugar and high fructose corn syrup will make the entire effort one more in a long list of disastrously-expensive federal government efforts, albeit of the best of intentions, to plan and fund American economic and industrial development. Unless oil prices once again show a dramatic and sustained spike soon, ethanol's profitability and viability will be restricted by our continued maintenance of a price support system for sugar and high fructose corn syrup. Trying to support an entire industry from the public purse which is made unprofitable by other public policies portends for a fiscal disaster.
126 posted on 02/09/2007 12:56:50 PM PST by StJacques (Liberty is always unfinished business)
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To: StJacques
As to the HFCS "Sugar Subsidy".

ADM is very concerned about the rapid growth of ethanol, it is trying to get as many corn futures bought two to three years ahead of time as it can. As one of the big recipients of the sugar subsidy, and the ethanol, it is interesting to me that they seem to be positioning themselves to protect the HFCS, and not the ethanol as much.

And yes, at $50 ethanol is profitable, as long as you have an outlet for the feed. If you don't then it isn't.
127 posted on 02/09/2007 1:13:07 PM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: StJacques
Fine analysis, Saint, but you omitted two key factors (or I missed them...g!).

First, and ugliest, is the tariff on imported sugar. At this time, this amounts to about 60% of the price of sugar worldwide. You can confirm this figure by checking the closing prices of Sugar #11 (''world'' sugar) and Sugar #14 (''domestic'' sugar) on the NYBOT any business day.

This tariff is and has been indefensible for decades. It exists for one reason: the domestic sugar lobby, whose profits are so high (for a simple commodity-based business) that they can afford to and regularly do buy off the Regress, wholesale, so much a head with a cash discount. It serves no economic purpose whatever; sugar is hardly an indeustry needing ''protection''.

Secondly, one cannot discuss ethanol today w/o noting carefully that there is a sizeable tariff on imported ethanol, too, some 50-odd cents/gallon. Couple this with the blending subsidy, the other farm ''support'' largesse, and the sugar tariff, and in reality there are at least four different subsidies for corn-based ethanol in the US.

Remove these subsidies and absolutely nobody would use ethanol as a motor fuel -- and I don't give the tiniest tinker's damn how much high-value animal feed is produced as a byproduct of wet milling. We already have lots of animal feed, more than we can use in fact, so who gives a rip about the byproducts, eh?

The ethanol scam isn't about energy, or energy-independence (haha), or anything other than one thing: money. Boatloads of money. Your money. My money. Every taxpayer's money.

You are one of the few writers I've seen who correctly charactierises ''ethanol'' as being both about corn AND sugar. The problem is, sadly, that ADM almost never loses in D.C., and the sugar lobby NEVER loses. Put these two groups of pirates together in a cause, any cause, and it's a done deal.

More's the pity. But, it's typical; when government attempts to pick winners in the economic sphere, everyone -- I mean absolutely everyone -- other than ''the chosen'', gets screwed royally.

BOHICA, m'friend, but FReegards nonetheless.

128 posted on 02/09/2007 2:54:28 PM PST by SAJ (debunking myths about markets and prices on FR since 2001)
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To: SAJ

Bump


129 posted on 02/09/2007 3:01:26 PM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: SierraWasp; StJacques
"As a nation... Are we strong/brilliant men/women, or are we little girleymice/sissycats who have to be taught a lesson by terrorists???"

I thought this was a rhetorical question.

The true answer is that we are a nation of disparate types. Yes, there are many who are willing to climb on your bandwagon, but there are also many who get just as excited about the opposite point of view.

Does this mean we are doomed to stagnation? No. The prudent types will prevail, after observing a few sensible experiments.

In the meantime, we can all do more. Regardless of your feelings about the efficacy of ethanol production, it makes sense to insist that your next vehicle be as flexible in its fuel requirements as possible.

My interest is essentially intellectual curiosity. I do not intend to join anyone's pitchforks at Midnight parade.

I would like to see an impartial investigation into the possibility of producing butanol from agricultural waste and food byproducts. If the hype is in any way reliable, butanol could be brought into the fuel mix without serious repercussions.

One of the points raised above is that American agricultural procedures can bring forth an astonishing variety of useful things besides food. I have long thought that one way to boost a farm's productivity and profitability is to reduce its fuel costs. Fuel plants grown on the farm, and the resultant fuel being used on that farm, would reduce the farmer's need for imported, and expensive, petroleum-based fuel.

I am at the same time a lover of tradition and a lover of innovation. I love the look and feel of a book, for example. But if kenaf fiber can produce a high-quality paper and preserve wood growth for the building industry, I think it is conservative to endorse it.

Similarly, if new techniques for producing fuel from otherwise unused or scrap materials can help us to reduce our addiction to foreign oil, I'm all for that, too.

130 posted on 02/09/2007 5:55:59 PM PST by NicknamedBob (Sign says, "No dogs allowed -- except seeing-eye dogs" Why don't they put that sign down lower?)
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To: SAJ
The tariff on sugar is the heart of the Sugar Subsidy and it is supported by corn farmers to an astounding degree.

When I say "Sugar Subsidy" I am referring to a host of things including tariffs, cut rates on crop insurance, non-production agreements with farmers, minimum price guarantees, and more. It's a whopper.
131 posted on 02/09/2007 8:09:23 PM PST by StJacques (Liberty is always unfinished business)
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To: NicknamedBob
"I am at the same time a lover of tradition and a lover of innovation."

Yes, Bob, I understand... You've looked at life from both sides now... as the female folk vocalist of the 1970's sang... and this is your safety perch from which you can appear wise as a moderate old owl! The wisest person in the room, so to speak.

Have you ever defended the timber industry from the radical GovernMental EnvironMentalist despots who have ruined it's great and sustainable traditions??? If you have, you are certainly a rarity indeed!!!

If I could get to know you better, I'll bet I'd find you to be an American of excellent character and more productive than most. But this fadish casting about for alternative energy or raw materials is kinda dumb on it's face.

If ANY of these alternatives were viable, they'd have been adopted long before this simply through the demand for supply of the most viable by our system of markets!!!

Thus, I see all this speculating and daydreaming as sophomoric sophistry and smacking of negativity toward our own traditions of a sort that smacks of liberalism, or that there's something wrong with what America has been doing because we're not all hyped up over trying to fix something that really isn't broken in the first place...

Now if you think that those statements are filled with wrath directed soley at you, then don't even give it a "soft answer" and I'll understand.

132 posted on 02/09/2007 11:23:22 PM PST by SierraWasp (Grayout Davis, Gang-Green Schwartzenegger... Recycled Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown!!! Watch for it in 4!!!)
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To: StJacques
Never a quarrel, mate. We're on the same page as usual.

Only difference, perhaps, is that I broke it down a bit more specifically.

Best of all worlds? Let a large cargo of raw sugar rot, then give Chavez an enema with it, and dump the rest into ADM's air vents at their Illinois headqtrs.

And set fire to the cane fields in FL and LA. 3 or 4 times a year, if possible. The envirowhackos would approve; cane is pretty hard on the soil, and in the US, cane is only grown on pretty marginal land to start. No loss at all, the soil improves over time. Bit of a problem for the sugar barons, but, frankly, if they can't make an honest profit w/o dipping into your and my pocket, screw them.

<<<--- NOT a nice guy on this subject

133 posted on 02/09/2007 11:36:47 PM PST by SAJ (debunking myths about markets and prices on FR since 2001)
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To: jburkovi
Have you inquired about the level of government (read: ''taxpayer'') subsidy of ethanol in Brazil, both direct and indirect?

Didn't think so. W/o enormous tax AND production subsidies, Brazil's vaunted ''ethanol economy'' wouldn't even exist, let alone be a subject for discussion among petroilliterates.

Brazil is ''oil independant'' (sic) with regard to automobiles? Your ass. What absoute rubbish.

Any gov't can subsidise ANY nonsensical product for a period of time, in order to (try to) induce citizens to use the gov't-approved inferior product, but there's no exception in history to the intractable fact that THIS little game runs out, and in an historically very ugly fashion, p d q. Brazil consumes a very sizeable amount of crude and product, and produces relatively small amounts of any of these. Perhaps **close** to enough for their nation, but I rather doubt it, and in any case their consumption will outstrip production (if it hasn't already) in a very small number of years, like, say, 3-4.

134 posted on 02/09/2007 11:50:54 PM PST by SAJ (debunking myths about markets and prices on FR since 2001)
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To: SierraWasp
Work Harder NOT Smarter...Effanol!
ETHANOL= Net loss of resources...
My uninitiated curriosity has been peaked by this seemingly obvious energy source:
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/18138/

any learned opinions???
135 posted on 02/09/2007 11:59:02 PM PST by tman73 (GW has nuts...Dems don't)
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To: SierraWasp
"... this faddish casting about for alternative energy or raw materials is kinda dumb on its face. "

Not at all. It's what we've always done. No matter what the product or the process, innovators have always struggled to find alternatives, in order to provide a choice, a better market position, or to take advantage of a previously underutilized resource. Just consider the efforts of George Washington Carver.

"If ANY of these alternatives were viable, they'd have been adopted long before this simply through the demand for supply of the most viable by our system of markets!!!"

Some of the alternatives are indeed viable, and additional studies will disclose methods by which they may be made even more competitive. Nearly a hundred years ago, you could fill up your Model T with either alcohol or gasoline. You had a choice, depending on what may have been more plentiful in your area.

Obviously, alcohol was not able to continue to compete against alcohol directly. It lost out in straight competition to the more available and easily provided petrochemically derived gasoline.

But as has been stated above, as gasoline and other petro stocks rise in price due to increasing demand, at some point alcohols of various types will again become price competitive, even without subsidization. Simple economics dictates that it must be so. Why fight against a rising tide?

136 posted on 02/10/2007 5:22:18 AM PST by NicknamedBob (Sign says, "No dogs allowed -- except seeing-eye dogs" Why don't they put that sign down lower?)
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To: StJacques
I see genuine strains developing between Chavez and his formerly-close neighbors of Brazil, Argentina, and Chile

I see it, too.

Yours on the ethanol and sugar industries was brilliant.

And, if one is to step back and take another look at the larger scene, one can also see Pegs to the "Anti-Obesity" movement, and why. And why some schools and politicos wish to abolish "sugars" from students' diets.

Diabetes and Autism are on the rise in US children. Could high corn fructose be involved in these numbers? Remove those items, move the fructose/sugar over to a newer industry and use, keeping the economy stable in re GDP.

I'm all for America's "energy independence". And witnessing Chavez swimming in the oil he can't sell.

137 posted on 02/10/2007 6:33:59 AM PST by Alia
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To: SouthTexas; mylife
Brazil also has found a new offshore oil reserve.

Unfair of you to bring up this fact, as Brazil is an heroic nation to the greenie-left, which wants ethanol fuel for everyone.

Truth of the matter,not that it matters, is that Brazil has been ramping up its own oil production quite steadily. God forbid they should clear some forest to increase cane production.

138 posted on 02/10/2007 7:23:58 AM PST by Kenny Bunk (Biden, Biden, he's my man, if anyone says it, he soon can!)
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To: Kenny Bunk

SAVE THE CORN FOR WHISKEY!!!


139 posted on 02/10/2007 8:13:49 AM PST by SouthTexas (It's snowing in Texas, where is OUR global warming?)
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To: Alia
And witnessing Chavez swimming in the oil he can't sell.

".....While a number of domestic refineries use Venezuelan crude oil, 11 accounted for 80 percent of Venezuelan crude oil used in the United States and the U.S. Virgin Islands ...."

Although it would hurt some oil companies temporarily, we can do very well without Venezuelan Crude, which is pretty crude indeed, requiring highly specialized refineries. After the 11 US refineries which handle Venezuelan Crude are switched to other feedstocks, which takes a while, Chávez would really be up a bit of a creek, because in order to use the stuff, other refinery facilities would have to be found and adapted, which also takes a while.

Oilco economic hossheet aside, Venezuela needs us one hell of a lot more than we need them.

140 posted on 02/10/2007 9:02:08 AM PST by Kenny Bunk (Biden, Biden, he's my man, if anyone says it, he soon can!)
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