James Lileks: Don't Underestimate Giuliani (And Newt still can't win!)

The Newhouse News Service ^ | February 6, 2007 | James Lileks

[quidnunc]

Rudy Giuliani is in. Suggested campaign slogan: "He dealt with Brooklyn. He can handle Baghdad.'' He's not a sure thing; he has enough baggage to fill the cargo hold of a cruise ship. His sundry personal-life issues bother social conservatives; the gun control stance dismays the Second Amendment wing of the party; the pro-choice opinions alarm the evangelicals. That leaves about 47 Republicans, right? After all, it's just a party of cousin-marrying yahoos who'd sooner shoot up Planned Parenthood than vote for one of those fish-on-Friday types. Right?

No. Voters are more flexible and forgiving than you might expect. And none of the objections obscure the central appeal of the Rudy candidacy: He'll nuke 'em if he has to. That won't be the central theme of his campaign, of course, but it's the unstated strength of his candidacy. He's not a wuss. Look at the rest of the field:

Mitt Romney. He's a heavy fave, but the M-word makes his support in the evangelical community unsure. Many will vote for him, since he's an all-around moral guy, and no one wants a public debate over doctrinal differences. Other evangelicals regard his faith as something between David Koresh and Scientology, and would rather vote for Joe Lieberman. (Him you could convert!) Romney has an abortion flip-flop to confront, which softens his support as well. He's a solid candidate thus far because he's, well, solid: He appears hewn from the Presidential Quarry.

On the other hand, he could be a genial cyborg from an invading race. Wouldn't exactly surprise anyone.

-snip-

[Txsleuth]

I voted on that poll today...

I VOTED FOR KUCINICH!!!




j/k

[Strategerist]

Steele has to win something beyond Maryland Vice-Governor, unfortunately. I don't have great hopes of any Republicans winning any statewide office here within the next 10 years.

[STARWISE]

ROFL ... noooo

[RebelBanker]

When you say "here" I assume you are in the Peoples Democratic State of Maryland with me. Tough place for conservatives!

In any event, I have met Steele and heard him speak and I think he has a lot of potential. Just not sure where he can go to show it. He is running Newt's old group GOPAC at the moment.

[Txsleuth]

LOL...na, I wouldn't do that...but at least he makes me laugh...the other dems make me want to puke.

[AmishDude]

You are AWESOME!

Oh, now that makes me want to put it in my tagline! But I promised that I'd keep this one until November 2008.

[Geronimo]

If you had bet on Rudy being the Republican Candidate yesterday, for a $100- bet, at 5/1 odds, you will get back $600- if he wins the nomination...that's your original bet back, plus the five-hundred they lost.

If you bet on Rudy being the the Republican Candidate today, for a $100- bet, at 4/1 odds, you will get back $500-if he wins the nomination...that's your original bet back, plus the four-hundred dollars they were prepared to lose today...

McCain drifting means the opposite scenario, the money you bet on him today isn't worth as much as it was yesterday...

it's gambling I know, but it's usually more accurate than the polls...no agenda, just about the money, that's all. I'm not ever going to condone gambling to anyone, but I really spanked Ladrokes last July while I was in England with a three grand bet on Tiger to win the Open at 6/1...it's deviant but it's a great addiction!!

[PhiKapMom]

I think Michael Steele is great and wouldn't mind seeing im on the ticket as VP in 08. He has been named head of GOPAC and honestly thought he should have been named to head the RNC.

[PhiKapMom]

Thanks!

[nopardons]

Don't kid yourself.....abuse HAS been hit and the Mods ignore it.

[Old_Mil]

Thank you. I wasn't supporting Rudy at all. But now I will vote for him. Out of spite. Against you.

I hope the rest of my fellow Iowans feel the same way.

Sure you were. At any rate, this is one Iowan who couldn't disagree more. I will never support a Rudy candidacy and if he is nominated, will work overtime to see this liberal politician defeated at the polls.

[PhiKapMom]

Wonder what what the odds will be when Rudy officially announces on Saturday at the CA GOP Convention?

[carlo3b]

James Lileks likes Fred Thompson especially as a VP to Rudy.. Interesting.....

""Fred Thompson hasn't declared, but should. He has been waging a stealth campaign simply by appearing as a guest host for Paul Harvey. He sounds like a man with his boots on the desk and a star on his chest. As a veep, he would make John Edwards look like Peter Pan. For the debate, Edwards might as well show up in green tights.""

 

[nopardons]

Some people believe that their day dreams are reality, I guess.

[deport]

Wonder what what the odds will be when Rudy officially announces on Saturday at the CA GOP Convention?

---

Oh no......... Not another annoucement thread...... sheesh is this guy gonna ever stop announcing so the annoucement threads won't have to be posted............

[garv]

1) Guiliani has equal/greater name recognition than Gingrich.

2) Thus he's benefitting from a temporary case of the well known/unknown syndrome. He has name recognition, but as his views on issues of importance to conservative voters become known his support will diminish and redirect to the leading conservative candidate.

3) Whatever gains Newt, Hunter, Brownback, et al, make will come out of Giuliani's support.

4) Giuliani has demonstrated electability for a local office in one of most liberal cities in the country. Hillary has demonstrated electability in arguably the most liberal state in the country. All of your other characterizations of Gingrich are nothing more that your own biases.

I know it must be a great burden for you to bless us with your great wisdom over and over, so please, give it a rest. Once again it's nothing more than a projection of your own opinions onto the great unwashed masses. We'll all manage to figure things out on our own.

[nopardons]

Yes, that's right, how on earth could I have forgotten that the Dems are all in favor of supporting the WOT, lowering taxes, cutting government, doing away with minority and female set asides, slashing away at affirmative action, not pandering to the likes of Arafat, vouchers, and not caving in to unions. Silly me..................../s

[IslandJeff]

Brownback recently blinked in the face of Senatorial Bidness As Usual WRT the War on Terror. Cooked himself in the process.

Senators don't become Chief Execs, for damned good reason. Repeal the 17th.

[nopardons]

You'd be amazed, or not, how many FREEPERS the SPAM is driving into Rudy's camp. LOL

[familyop]