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The Scientific Method (A Review for the Global Warming crowd)
University of Rochester ^ | Frank Wolfs

Posted on 02/05/2007 11:56:37 AM PST by Reaganesque

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To: HaveHadEnough
I think there are two questions: 1. Is global warming taking place? 2. What is the cause of it?

Good point. And the current debate seems to combine these two quite separate questions into a single scientific question.

As such, a positive answer to #1 will automatically lead to a conclusion that human activity is to blame. Not very good science, in other words, even if human activities form a component of the warming.

Global warming is a great example of science being used for political or other ends, and scientists playing along with it.

21 posted on 02/05/2007 1:13:44 PM PST by r9etb
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To: Minnesoootan

There is a corollary activity that should also be noted:

4) Demonize and marginalize those in the field who disagree or contend with your "findings"...


22 posted on 02/05/2007 1:14:29 PM PST by mikrofon (Stop Gore-bal Whining)
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To: HaveHadEnough
I think there are two questions: 1. Is global warming taking place? 2. What is the cause of it?

I don't think at this point that any serious and even minimally informed individual is going to dispute that the answer to #1 is "Yes". The warming that has occurred within roughly the last 100 years is proven without a doubt.

As far as #2 goes, that's another matter altogether.

23 posted on 02/05/2007 1:16:03 PM PST by jpl
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To: Reaganesque

BUMP!


24 posted on 02/05/2007 1:16:49 PM PST by G Larry (Only strict constructionists on the Supreme Court!)
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To: BuffaloJack
This is just socialism.

I agree completely. This is a power grab by the Socialists of the world who are resentful of the US's prominence. In their minds, they are better human beings, they're smarter, they have better intentions therefore, they should be the dominant political system in the world. Having the US powerful was OK so long as the Soviet Union existed. Now that it doesn't, the Socialists feel the need to knock us off our pedestal. They couldn't care less about the environment. They just want power and this is the tool they have chosen to use to get it.

25 posted on 02/05/2007 1:17:32 PM PST by Reaganesque
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To: Kirkwood
There are a number of scientific discoveries based on this [Reverse Scientific method] approach. You might be surprised by that, but brilliant men knew what the principle should be and when the data didn't fit they found reasons why it didn't fit. So they didn't throw away good data, but bad data in order to get to the truth. Sometimes this method is needed to have progress, although before you publish the results you go back and redo the study the correct way.

The scientific method says nothing about how you come up with a theory or hypothesis. You can use taro cards and still follow the scientific method. What is important is that you devise and carry out a proper experiment. Good scientists often have an intuitive knack for insights into bad results but good luck getting confirming results from those taro card theories.

26 posted on 02/05/2007 1:25:18 PM PST by etlib (No creature without tentacles has ever developed true intelligence)
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To: Radix

Rejection of Authority was never a rule in science, although it may have been your teacher's way saying we shouldn't mindlessly heed authority. In the ideal world, science should neither reject nor embrace authority, but proceed with complete neutrality.


27 posted on 02/05/2007 1:33:07 PM PST by Rudder
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To: Minnesoootan

Interesting. You've just described what lawyers do.

I never thought about it this way before, but you could say that the global warming hysteria is what you get when you allow lawyers to pose as scientists.


28 posted on 02/05/2007 1:44:23 PM PST by 3niner (War is one game where the home team always loses.)
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To: HaveHadEnough
1. Is global warming taking place?

Yes, the Earth has been getting warmer since the 17th century. Before that it got colder for about 500 years, before that it got warmer for about 400 years, before that it got colder, etc.

2. What is the cause of it?

The Sun.

29 posted on 02/05/2007 1:51:19 PM PST by 3niner (War is one game where the home team always loses.)
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To: HaveHadEnough
1. Is global warming taking place? 2. What is the cause of it?

Actually, there are three more, all of which are probably more important than the first two:

3. If it's taking place, what will be the net results? (could be bad, but could also be good)

4. Are we capable of significantly influencing those results positively? (some people don't seem to comprehend that the answer could be "no")

5. If so, would it be worth it to do so? (it's possible that there's a global warming/climate change in store for us, that it would be bad, and that we could influence it positively, but it would simply cost more than it's worth to do so. Another possibility lost on many people.)

30 posted on 02/05/2007 2:00:12 PM PST by Dr. Frank fan
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To: Reaganesque

"It's not my carbon dioxide (car)."


31 posted on 02/05/2007 2:02:12 PM PST by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: BuffaloJack

Don't clowd the issue.


32 posted on 02/05/2007 2:02:48 PM PST by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: HaveHadEnough

If your house was flooded, you wouldn't ask what the water was or where it came from, would you?

The real point here is that no one has a solution to remove the excess CO2 and only add back the right amount; yet they want to run the show at our cost.


33 posted on 02/05/2007 2:06:02 PM PST by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: r-q-tek86

yeah... but I don't FEEL like this is correct.

77777


LOL! I FEEL your concern!


34 posted on 02/05/2007 2:10:29 PM PST by maica (America will be a hyperpower that's all hype and no power -- if we do not prevail in Iraq)
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To: Dr. Frank fan

Agree with your post. Also, most arguments seem to posit that this GW is going to impact us like a tsunami when in reality it is a long and slow process and we as humans will adapt to the slowly changing conditions. E.g., the fact that there were vineyards in England during the midevial warm period. For crying out loud, if it gets warmer that is not such a bad thing. We adapt, until it starts getting colder again as it has over the ages.


35 posted on 02/05/2007 2:30:58 PM PST by mc5cents (Show me just what Mohammd brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman)
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To: etlib

But it is interesting that published experiments rarely reveal the entire story about how progress is made in science. You need to rely on biographies and autobiographies to get real insight into how some of the great minds of science worked out a problem and devised experiments. If you just looked at the published articles you sometimes ask yourself how a certain scientist could have had such great insight, when in fact they sometimes worked outside of the rules. Only when they understood the principles involved did they come back and devise the correct experiment. And sometimes even then that didn't work. It is sometimes troubling for someone not working in the field of science to learn that scientists throw out the outlier data based on any legitimate excuse in order to achieve a statistically significant result.


36 posted on 02/05/2007 2:34:38 PM PST by Kirkwood
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To: Reaganesque
Scientific method? We don't need no stinking scientific method. We got Algore.

It's Bush's fault. Bush and those damned SUVs. Women and minorities will be hardest hit.


37 posted on 02/05/2007 2:58:39 PM PST by Bubba_Leroy (What did Rather know and when did he know it?)
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To: Kirkwood
scientists throw out the outlier data based on any legitimate excuse in order to achieve a statistically significant result.

As long as it is well outside the bounds of the majority of the data and is statistically insignificant, this is valid. The danger is that sometimes significant amounts of data lie outside the expected range. That is not legitimate to ignore. Any scientific paper which ignores "outlier" data should indicate that this was done and why.

38 posted on 02/05/2007 3:03:02 PM PST by etlib (No creature without tentacles has ever developed true intelligence)
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To: HaveHadEnough
I think there are two questions:

1. Is global warming taking place?

2. What is the cause of it?

3. What are you going to do about it?

Everyone who believes that global warming is happening and evil cars and industry are the cause of it:

1. Get out of your car and make it into a planter.

2. Quit your job if it encourages industry.

C'mon, lets not just TALK about it and force me into doing something, get out there and LEAD.

39 posted on 02/05/2007 3:06:23 PM PST by MooseMan
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To: Old Professer

Your assuming that we have excess CO2 and need to decrease.

If you can give me daily CO2 readings for the last 2 billion years, then we can make a determination if CO2 levels are high, low or part of a cycle.

If your house is flooded, you should ask where it came from. Is it raining? If no is the answer, you probably have a water coming from your own pipes and need to turn the water off.

If the flooding if coming from rain, there isn't much you can do until it stops.


40 posted on 02/05/2007 3:13:15 PM PST by art_rocks
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