Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
Where did I say that? I merely stated that those issues are NOT going to be what wins 2008.
We simply cannot win with those as the top priorities this year.
And why on earth would gun owners want Hillary in the White House?
Are you going to have me banned too?
The deposition has to be two way. I get to be the deposer as well as the deponent. So far, I haven't received any personal opinion from you about sodomy. I am well aware of the state of the law. I did not ask about the state of the law. Answer the question clearly about YOUR personal opinion, and I will be happy to answer you about my personal opinion about what should be the legal status of abortion.
Yes you did. Sorry that you are having trouble understanding the language.
The exact same reasons they don't want Rudy McRomney there.
You said the states should have the right to make sodomy a crime. I asked you whether they should exercise that right which you think they should have to actually make sodomy a crime. Is that distinction too subtle to fathom?
You mean those same anti-freeper sites that Alan's gal Friday posted my and Jeff's Resume's on? You mean those anti-Freeper sites?
Regards,
TS
I hope you don't mind, but I was asking somebody whose opinion I actually respect.
And somebody who doesn't talk in BUZZWORDS.
The rim is still shaking on that slam-dunk.
I can understand Rudy's point of view on this. First of all, we're not talking about Mexicans who sneaked over the border here. We're talking about Sikh Indians, Eastern Europeans, Asians, and other people who REALLY came to NYC to make a decent living, these people who run the food stands, etc. These people weren't really illegals in the criminal sense. They came here to make a better living and was in process with their permanent residency papers.
If I had the power, of course I would. You're the most corrosive poster on FR. It's been that way for years.
But, as you know, I have no such power.
I have no idea. All I know is that they post myths.
So, do you have something against Keyes supporters?
At least you're honest about it.
You're the most corrosive poster on FR.
And all because I won't take your crap. That's what your REAL problem is.
Rudy will not win the Republican primary without solid 70+ acceptability to Republican voters. He does not have it now and as the campaign moves along it will most likely diminish as he is forced to address his positions and his views become better known. In February of 1999 Bush had an 80% favorability rating among Republican voters.
Are you laughing as hard as I am at some of these comments?
Nope, they don't raise money for "gay" causes at the INNER CIRCLE dinners, any more than they do in Chicago, at the same kind of thing, which have been held in Chicago for more than 40 years now and which is run by that city's WHITE SHOE law firms!
what myths?
Yes, of course I am laughing!!!
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