Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
Wouldn't you think that a "real Republican" would have to agree with the MAJORITY of the party platform?
Or, failing that, AT LEAST THE most important, deeply held conservative, LIFE/CONSTITUTIONAL issues like being Pro-Life and Pro 2nd Amendment?
"I don't think she'll be the candidate, and if she is, she will be the "Bob Dole" of the demonRAT party, as Ann Coulter says, the "inevitable" candidate who can't beat anybody,"
I think you and Ann are GREATLY underestimating Hillary and the Clintons. This country did afterall elect Bill not once but twice afterall.
You need to check this out, Hit.
The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
* 70% of independents are favorable,The Mayor also enjoys strong approval among white evangelical Christians (76%) and self-described conservative Republicans (82%).
* 70% of 35-44 year olds,
* 74% of married women,
* 73% of households married with children,
* 52% of minority voters
What did they do with it the last time they had it?
Can you say "Landslide"???
Oh, ok so you think that a few party leaders along with the current nominee should determine the definition of a "real" Republican and that no one can disagree at all, even if only on one issue, with them if they want to be a "real" Republican. And the definition changes every four years. I see.
I will still be open for now, but when (if the time comes) then I will decide if I would support him in the general! That's all I will say for now, beside I don't want to be antagonistic, even if I disagree with Rudy and his supporters, I will work for the Conservative alternative, and not make up my mind (general election) till later!
-God Bless,
-Jeremy!
--On President Bill Clinton: Shortly before his last-minute endorsement of Bob Dole in the 1996 presidential election, Giuliani told the Post's Jack Newfield that "most of Clinton's policies are very similar to most of mine." Rudy! An Investigative Biography of Rudolph Giuliani, Wayne Barrett.
I'm fairly confident Rudy agreed with the majority of the last platform.
OMG! You bet!
--On President Bill Clinton: Shortly before his last-minute endorsement of Bob Dole in the 1996 presidential election, Giuliani told the Post's Jack Newfield that "most of Clinton's policies are very similar to most of mine." Rudy! An Investigative Biography of Rudolph Giuliani, Wayne Barrett.
I respect your position.
See Post 50 and 113.
On the other hand, I think you, and the left-wing media, and the left-wing push-pollsters, and a vocal minority on FR, are GREATLY OVERestimating rudy.
I guess some (not necessarily you) think, that if enough "smoke is blown up our collective asses" promoting rudy, then we'll become true believers and flock to the polls to support him.
It ain't gonna happen, sorry.
I'm open to hearing what Rudy has to say at this point in time, when he gets his campaign going. Until then, I'm going to overlook his past statements and see how he positions himself in the future. His positions may change when he moves into a national campaign.
What can you say for a guy who would kill his grandchildren?
You have a right to your opinion but IMO Rudy and McCain are the Republicans only hope in 2008.
Only "fairly" confident?
Have you seen Spiff's table contrasting rudy's views with the GOP and dem platforms?
It is MOST informative.
AWESOME! Thanks for posting those numbers!
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